Re: Re:
You don't even know the difference between Devaluation and Floating Exchange Rate. What took place is not Devaluation. It is FloatingHorus wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 01:49አንቺ ቱስ ቱስ ለመሆኑ ምን እንዳልኩኝ ከብቶሃል? እስቲ ያልኩት ገብቶህ ከሆነ በራስህ ቃላት ግለጸው? What do you know about open market monetary policy and the law money supply, interest rates etc...??? Tus tusMisraq wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 01:35Saving this to show you in a few months how wrong your judgment isHorus wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 01:26What is the effect of floating exchange system = same effect! Of course, there is one partly true perspective; that is, due to the black market $1 = $117+/- rate, some markets have always been on floating system. But, that a very small segment of the population. For millions of fixed income workers and poor people, the official fall of the Birr vs, the dollar will reduce the net worth of millions by 1/2 thereby reducing the buying power of folks by half. In any case, probably 70 to 80% of our economic activity is an informal economy and no one knows the exact effect of the Birr devaluation. Some of the inflation in the economy was artificial and perhaps the weak Birr might might create lower demand among the population thereby creating lower prices. We shall see,
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DefendTheTruth
- Senior Member
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Re: Re:
Aye Faandoo lihiq, the pot calling the kettle black!
What we have learned from the government is not a currency devaluation or any sort of price setting, it is a shift in the macroeconomic policy, which is now based on a free hand of the market. The directive of currency market is based on (in alignment to) the same policy.
Re: The Devaluation of Birr
ሆረስ እንኳን ደስ ያለህ፣ አቶ ዓብዮት ለአይ ኤም ኤፍ ህጋዊ ድሃ ነን ብሎ ፈርሟል!
Reuters - Ethiopia's birr drops 30% as central bank floats currency
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currenc ... 024-07-29/
Reuters - Ethiopia's birr drops 30% as central bank floats currency
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currenc ... 024-07-29/
Re: The Devaluation of Birr
Brother Horus is Abiy Ahmed's ውታፍ ነቃይ ካድሬ!

Re: The Devaluation of Birr
ሆረስ፤
የሚዛነፍ ጉዳይ ያነሳሁ አይመስለኝም። ሰዎች መቸም ነገሮችን እንደ እየራሳቸው ግንዛቤ ሊረዷቸው ይችላሉ። የአንድ አገር መንግስት በጄት ሁለት የአንድ ሳንቲም ገጽታዎች አሉት። የገቢ ምንጭ እና የወጭ አይነቶች። National Economy Accounting Balance Sheet የእነዚህ ተመጣጣኝነት አስፈላጊ ነው። ገቢ በማንኪያ፤ወጭ በአካፋ ከሆነ የቀውስ አገር ይሆናል። ጥንቁቅ መንግስት እና የፋይናንስ ፓሊሲ፤ አጠቃቀም ነፍስ የዘራበት ከሆነ የወጭ ቀዳዳዎችን ቅደም ተከተል ይለያል - ብሄራዊ የገቢ ምንጮችን ያመቻቻል ይፈጥራል።
እስከ አሁን ሲሆን ያየነው ገንዘብ መበዝበር እና መዋዕለ ንዋይ ቅድምያ ሊፈስባቸው የሚችሉ በርካታ ቀዳዳዎች እያሉ ( better return on investment, ROI ) የቅንጦት እና የሽርሽር ፍላጎቶች ላይ ያተኮረ ጥፋት ነው ( luxury & conspicuous consumptions) ።ብክነት፤ የቅደም ተከተል መዘበራረቅ፤ የጦረኝነት እና የጎሰኝነት አባዜዎች ባሉበት ብድር ቢገኝም መልሶ ያው ነው። ወይኖ አረሰው ወይኖ ጎረሰው የሚል አማርኛ ፈሊጥ ነበር - የማሰውን ሰብል በሬው አረሰው እና በሬ ገብቶ ሙልጭ አድርጎ ግጦ ጨረሰው - እህሉ ለሰው አልተረፈም። የኦሮሙማ ኢኮኖሚ ለኦሮሙማ ነው።
የሚዛነፍ ጉዳይ ያነሳሁ አይመስለኝም። ሰዎች መቸም ነገሮችን እንደ እየራሳቸው ግንዛቤ ሊረዷቸው ይችላሉ። የአንድ አገር መንግስት በጄት ሁለት የአንድ ሳንቲም ገጽታዎች አሉት። የገቢ ምንጭ እና የወጭ አይነቶች። National Economy Accounting Balance Sheet የእነዚህ ተመጣጣኝነት አስፈላጊ ነው። ገቢ በማንኪያ፤ወጭ በአካፋ ከሆነ የቀውስ አገር ይሆናል። ጥንቁቅ መንግስት እና የፋይናንስ ፓሊሲ፤ አጠቃቀም ነፍስ የዘራበት ከሆነ የወጭ ቀዳዳዎችን ቅደም ተከተል ይለያል - ብሄራዊ የገቢ ምንጮችን ያመቻቻል ይፈጥራል።
እስከ አሁን ሲሆን ያየነው ገንዘብ መበዝበር እና መዋዕለ ንዋይ ቅድምያ ሊፈስባቸው የሚችሉ በርካታ ቀዳዳዎች እያሉ ( better return on investment, ROI ) የቅንጦት እና የሽርሽር ፍላጎቶች ላይ ያተኮረ ጥፋት ነው ( luxury & conspicuous consumptions) ።ብክነት፤ የቅደም ተከተል መዘበራረቅ፤ የጦረኝነት እና የጎሰኝነት አባዜዎች ባሉበት ብድር ቢገኝም መልሶ ያው ነው። ወይኖ አረሰው ወይኖ ጎረሰው የሚል አማርኛ ፈሊጥ ነበር - የማሰውን ሰብል በሬው አረሰው እና በሬ ገብቶ ሙልጭ አድርጎ ግጦ ጨረሰው - እህሉ ለሰው አልተረፈም። የኦሮሙማ ኢኮኖሚ ለኦሮሙማ ነው።
Horus wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 13:02አበረ፣
ምን ይባል መሰልህ?
ምንስማርና ዶማ ብቻ ባለበት አለም የችግሮች ሁሉ ምንጭ ምስማር፣ የችግሮች ሁሉ መፍቻ ዶማ ይሆናል ይባላል። ስለ ብር ዋጋ መውደቅና ማደግ ውይይት ሲደረግ ስለ አዲስ አበባ መቆሸሽና መጽዳት ማውራት የህሳቤ ቅደም ተከተልና የነገሮች አመዳደብ ችግር ያስከትላል። እውቀት ማለት በአንድ ቃል አንድን ነገር ከሌላ ነገር የመለየት ችሎታ ነው ። የዶላር እጥረት የተፈጠረው አዲስ አበባ ስለጸዳ ነው የሚል ፋክት ካለህ አርብ ። እውቀት ማለት ያ ነው። ከዚያ ባለፈ ዱባና ቅል ለየቅል ነውና ሁሉንም ነገር ባካታጎሪው ውስጥ አስቀምጠን ማሰብ የተጣለብን ኮግኒቲቭ ግዴታ ነው ።
ሰላም ዋል
Re: The Devaluation of Birr
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Re: Re:
DDT,DefendTheTruth wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 13:31Aye Faandoo lihiq, the pot calling the kettle black!
What we have learned from the government is not a currency devaluation or any sort of price setting, it is a shift in the macroeconomic policy, which is now based on a free hand of the market. The directive of currency market is based on (in alignment to) the same policy.
አባባ መንግስቱም ወደ መውደቂው ላይ "ቅይጥ ኢኮኖሚ" ብሎን በካድሬዎቹ ልክ አንተ እንደምታደርገው መና የሚዘንብልን አስመስሎት ነበር፥፥ By the way, as a cadre handler you are successful on keeping Horus in line. That i won't take it from you. He is scared when he talks to you
Re: The Devaluation of Birr
How's Tigray's currency doing?


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wubebereha
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Re: Re:
just in one day the birr lost 30% and unless the immature PM reverse course as he is known to do, next week we will be talking up to 100% drop. but it is kind of funny seeing the clueless prosperity cadres sweating to sell this disaster.DefendTheTruth wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 13:31Aye Faandoo lihiq, the pot calling the kettle black!
What we have learned from the government is not a currency devaluation or any sort of price setting, it is a shift in the macroeconomic policy, which is now based on a free hand of the market. The directive of currency market is based on (in alignment to) the same policy.
Re: The Devaluation of Birr
Horus wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 10:32It is not my intention to pursue this discussion but I just want to say that, even though you and I disagree with respect to our political positions, you are an educated person. I don't believe most of the folks here have a clue about the meaning of Bretton Woods, what it means to be on Gold standard, how exchange rates are determined by daily trading, how central banks control or regulate money supply and demand through lending, interest rate mechanisms and how governments buy back or sell money to regulate the amount of money in the market in line with rates of inflation. በንግድ ባንክና በብሄራዊ ባንክ መሃል ያለውን ልዩነት ማወቃቸውንም እጠራጠራለሁSomaliman wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 09:42It's a currency devaluation, indeed.
Currency devaluation is nothing more or less than a downward adjustment in the official exchange rate of a given currency, which reduces the currency's value, regardless of whether the rate is determined by the government through its central bank or by the open market through supply and demand.
Let me also remind that since the collapse of the gold standard and the Bretton Woods agreement, floating exchange rates became more popular, to the extent that the currencies of most of the world's major economies, including the US dollar and the British Pound Sterling, are today determined by floating exchange rates.
Although adopting a floating exchange rate reflects disruption in the short-term, including speculation, to start with, it can have a positive impact on the economy in the long-term, as it can contribute in correcting trade imbalances with other trading countries.
Neither does a floating exchange rate mean that the currency is completely floating freely. Central banks and their governments still keep monitoring their currency to make its rate favorable for international trade.
So, thanks for informed comment. Ethiopia has zillions of dismal economists and I have no need continuing this fruitless talk with mostly uninformed forum addicts.
As I've now read all the comments posted on this thread, I couldn't agree with you more that it's pointless "to pursue this discussion" with this herd.
Without doubt, Ethiopia's central bank has taken the right decision to float the currency of the country. This move is primarily intended to garner support from the IMF with regard to restructuring the Ethiopian government's external debt, but Ethiopia's economy will overall benefit from adopting market-based foreign exchange system, including attracting investors and incentivising economic growth, amongst others.
Re: The Devaluation of Birr
Stop believing that the IMF polices the financial health of only the developing countries.
Guess who intervened when the former UK prime minister, Liz Truss, had announced her so-called radical new economic agenda (which had finally led her to resign) of tax cuts and spending worth tens of billions of pounds funded by borrowing, which sent the pound spiralling to reach its historic lowest value against the US dollar and that government bonds, known also as gilts, had seen a sell-off!
The Bank of England and the IMF.
Guess who intervened when the former UK prime minister, Liz Truss, had announced her so-called radical new economic agenda (which had finally led her to resign) of tax cuts and spending worth tens of billions of pounds funded by borrowing, which sent the pound spiralling to reach its historic lowest value against the US dollar and that government bonds, known also as gilts, had seen a sell-off!
The Bank of England and the IMF.
Re: The Devaluation of Birr
As I mentioned it previously, Ethiopia has finally reached an agreement with the IMF to secure a new financing program worth SDR 2.556 billion (about US$3.4 billion), which is being approved by the IMF Board.
Please note, the IMF does not hold or pay in a currency, but an international asset called SDR (Special drawing right). The value of the SDR is based on a basket of the US dollar, the British pound sterling, the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the Chinese Renminbi whose basic unit is the Yuan.
SDRs can only be held by the IMF, IMF members, and any other holder which the IMF has the only authority to approve, such as multilateral banks and central banks. Approved holders of SDR can buy and sell SDRs but cannot trade with.
The SDR is still in use despite the fact that it was created during the years of the Gold Standard, which has gradually ceased to exit.
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... 3b-ecf-arr
Please note, the IMF does not hold or pay in a currency, but an international asset called SDR (Special drawing right). The value of the SDR is based on a basket of the US dollar, the British pound sterling, the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the Chinese Renminbi whose basic unit is the Yuan.
SDRs can only be held by the IMF, IMF members, and any other holder which the IMF has the only authority to approve, such as multilateral banks and central banks. Approved holders of SDR can buy and sell SDRs but cannot trade with.
The SDR is still in use despite the fact that it was created during the years of the Gold Standard, which has gradually ceased to exit.
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... 3b-ecf-arr
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DefendTheTruth
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Re: The Devaluation of Birr
You have been sniffing at the news about the fund's decision all day, yeah? In a good will or bad wish?Somaliman wrote: ↑30 Jul 2024, 08:51As I mentioned it previously, Ethiopia has finally reached an agreement with the IMF to secure a new financing program worth SDR 2.556 billion (about US$3.4 billion), which is being approved by the IMF Board.
Please note, the IMF does not hold or pay in a currency, but an international asset called SDR (Special drawing right). The value of the SDR is based on a basket of the US dollar, the British pound sterling, the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the Chinese Renminbi whose basic unit is the Yuan.
SDRs can only be held by the IMF, IMF members, and any other holder which the IMF has the only authority to approve, such as multilateral banks and central banks. Approved holders of SDR can buy and sell SDRs but cannot trade with.
The SDR is still in use despite the fact that it was created during the years of the Gold Standard, which has gradually ceased to exit.
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... 3b-ecf-arr
You know it, we can only guess.
As someone who can write and read english text you shouldn't have missed the following core message, if you have not missed, then you should quoted it, as this is the central message, instead of trying to appear educated by elaborating what SDR is and other accessories, yeah?
"This is a landmark moment for Ethiopia," said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. "The approval of the ECF is a testament to Ethiopia’s strong commitment to transformative reforms. The IMF looks forward to supporting these efforts to help make the economy more vibrant, stable, and inclusive for all Ethiopians."
The program is expected to help catalyze additional external financing from development partners and provide a framework for the successful completion of the ongoing debt restructuring.
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DefendTheTruth
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Re: The Devaluation of Birr
Did you already stop sniffing about the amount of Loan Ethiopia could get from international partners?Somaliman wrote: ↑30 Jul 2024, 08:51As I mentioned it previously, Ethiopia has finally reached an agreement with the IMF to secure a new financing program worth SDR 2.556 billion (about US$3.4 billion), which is being approved by the IMF Board.
Please note, the IMF does not hold or pay in a currency, but an international asset called SDR (Special drawing right). The value of the SDR is based on a basket of the US dollar, the British pound sterling, the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the Chinese Renminbi whose basic unit is the Yuan.
SDRs can only be held by the IMF, IMF members, and any other holder which the IMF has the only authority to approve, such as multilateral banks and central banks. Approved holders of SDR can buy and sell SDRs but cannot trade with.
The SDR is still in use despite the fact that it was created during the years of the Gold Standard, which has gradually ceased to exit.
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... 3b-ecf-arr
Bad luck for your day!
The World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) will also grant a $500 million concessional credit to Ethiopia, the global lender said in a statement. "IDA expects to provide around $6 billion in new commitments over the next three fiscal years and support economic reforms through fast-disbursing budget support", the World Bank said. The funding is part of a $10.7 billion financing package by the IMF, World Bank and other creditors, according to Ethiopian officials.
https://www.investing.com/news/economy- ... ia-3544353
Re: The Devaluation of Birr
You just can change course overnight and everything will be OK. It doesn’t work like that.just in one day the birr lost 30% and unless the immature PM reverse course as he is known to do, next week we will be talking up to 100% drop. but it is kind of funny seeing the clueless prosperity cadres sweating to sell this disaster.
Just look at how the country is managed. Constant war for the last 5 years means nonstop unproductive and a no-return spending. The country financed the war projects and other spendings from 3 sources. Loan, tax and donation. The country has already defaulted in loans (interest) payments but still taking more loans. There is no significant export and a well to do middle class (economy) to generate tax revenue, donations (UAE & donor countries) - the donation’s support government payrolls and lucrative spending for the PP top brass.
The country is in life support by Western governments. And they will continue to do the trick for the country to barely survive. That is an agenda.
Ethiopia is a failed country and a failed economy run by a stupid man.
You see, that is why building palaces, water fountains and bright and colourful lights are not a sign of developments.
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DefendTheTruth
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Re: The Devaluation of Birr
Ay wrong, you are foolish, you can't see what is in front of your own eyes, instead you believe in what you once heard. The specialty of this government is that it can register a remarkable economic growth despite the devastating war that was happening in parallel to the economic activity.
አንተ ግን የምታምነዉ፣ አንዴ የሰማዉን መፈክር፣ "ሁሉ ነገር ወደ ጦር ግንባር" ን ነዉ! This government is unpredictable!
ቁማሩ ተቀይሮዋል!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Re: The Devaluation of Birr
Somaliman wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 15:18Support your thesis with example(s).Horus wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 10:32It is not my intention to pursue this discussion but I just want to say that, even though you and I disagree with respect to our political positions, you are an educated person. I don't believe most of the folks here have a clue about the meaning of Bretton Woods, what it means to be on Gold standard, how exchange rates are determined by daily trading, how central banks control or regulate money supply and demand through lending, interest rate mechanisms and how governments buy back or sell money to regulate the amount of money in the market in line with rates of inflation. በንግድ ባንክና በብሄራዊ ባንክ መሃል ያለውን ልዩነት ማወቃቸውንም እጠራጠራለሁSomaliman wrote: ↑29 Jul 2024, 09:42It's a currency devaluation, indeed.
Currency devaluation is nothing more or less than a downward adjustment in the official exchange rate of a given currency, which reduces the currency's value, regardless of whether the rate is determined by the government through its central bank or by the open market through supply and demand.
Let me also remind that since the collapse of the gold standard and the Bretton Woods agreement, floating exchange rates became more popular, to the extent that the currencies of most of the world's major economies, including the US dollar and the British Pound Sterling, are today determined by floating exchange rates.
Although adopting a floating exchange rate reflects disruption in the short-term, including speculation, to start with, it can have a positive impact on the economy in the long-term, as it can contribute in correcting trade imbalances with other trading countries.
Neither does a floating exchange rate mean that the currency is completely floating freely. Central banks and their governments still keep monitoring their currency to make its rate favorable for international trade.
So, thanks for informed comment. Ethiopia has zillions of dismal economists and I have no need continuing this fruitless talk with mostly uninformed forum addicts.
As I've now read all the comments posted on this thread, I couldn't agree with you more that it's pointless "to pursue this discussion" with this herd.
Without doubt, Ethiopia's central bank has taken the right decision to float the currency of the country. This move is primarily intended to garner support from the IMF with regard to restructuring the Ethiopian government's external debt, but Ethiopia's economy will overall benefit from adopting market-based foreign exchange system, including attracting investors and incentivising economic growth, amongst others.