What would you do if you wanted to predict the future during the rule of the Derg? You would have watched the armed rebels at the time. They might not have looked big or powerful then, but they were already the future of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Anyone who believed armed rebellion that is supported by a large segment of the people could simply be crushed was delusional. In many countries, armed rebels eventually win the war.
I know you disagree, but Fano, TDF, and OLA are your future whether you like it or not. I’m not claiming they will govern better than PP, that I don’t know but hope so. What I know for certain is that they will shape Ethiopia’s future after Abiy, and ironically, Abiy either created or enabled all three of them through his sheer incompetence in handling political grievances.
So my advice is this: urge your PP officials to seek a negotiated settlement with the armed rebels, if you truly care about your country. Otherwise, no matter how much you ignore or ridicule them, today’s rebels will absolutely shape the country’s future, for good or for worse.
You can live in a bubble, of course, and hope for some miracle from the sky that lets the government decisively defeat the rebels and rule forever. But don’t come back later and say I didn’t warn you about the country’s fate falling into the hands of rebels commanding hundreds of thousands of troops.
Either the rebels shape your future, or you try now to shape it yourself by abandoning delusion and pushing for a peaceful, negotiated settlement toward a more democratic society. I know you will be አንገተ ደንዳና, stiff necked, like all who hold power, and hand the country’s fate entirely to the rebels. I know this will happen.
Finally, know that Abiy is genuinely good at certain things, modernizing IT and telecommunications among them. But he is hopelessly incompetent when it comes to politics and addressing grievances. Urge PP to sideline him on these matters. Don’t buy into his delusion that he can defeat the people’s political grievances through military force. This approach has already produced more and stronger rebels, and it will only accelerate the country’s march toward a point of no return. Let Abiy build parks, resorts, and projects. Leave politics and the economy to seasoned professionals and mature adults. That is simply not within his capacity.
Re: To PP supporters who deeply love their country. This is your future, act now!
Chances are like PP, they will not be able to govern well, because they have no a clue. I will repeat, Ethiopians do not understand and don’t know or to put mildly at this point they are not capable of properly governing themselves. The same is true for the entire sub-Sahara Africa. That is a fact.I know you disagree, but Fano, TDF, and OLA are your future whether you like it or not. I’m not claiming they will govern better than PP
The Europeans discovered good governance several centuries ago and they never looked back.
Settler colonies such as Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Israel etc are relatively new countries. Since they are built in the European model, they adopted good governance. Today much of the underdeveloped world send their children to the new countries for a better life.
Good governance is not a rocket science. With a proper political & educational infrastructure, it only takes a generation or two to put it in place at the initial stage. Once you started it and have a taste of it, there is no looking back. If you teach a child how to clean his teeth at his/her development stage, they will do it until the end of their life.
Ethiopians think shiny buildings, vanity projects and large army is a sign of good governance and development. It is not.
The only hope for good governance is that if FANO takes over ENDF and stabilize the country for a political space.
Re: To PP supporters who deeply love their country. This is your future, act now!
Right, I have to admit, you may be actually right!
Abiy Ahmed, just like Mengistu doesn’t have the skills to address political problems. As he is a colonel like Mengistu, both use the one military tool to solve all problems and wonder why the rebels get stronger and stronger. Instead of seeing that military can never replace a sound political solution, they double down and also externalize the internal problems, blaming Egypt, CIA and what not. As the saying goes: መዶሻ የያዘ ልጅ፣ ነገር ሁሉ ሚስማር ይመስለዋል Give a small boy a hammer, and he will find that everything he encounters needs pounding.
Abiy Ahmed, just like Mengistu doesn’t have the skills to address political problems. As he is a colonel like Mengistu, both use the one military tool to solve all problems and wonder why the rebels get stronger and stronger. Instead of seeing that military can never replace a sound political solution, they double down and also externalize the internal problems, blaming Egypt, CIA and what not. As the saying goes: መዶሻ የያዘ ልጅ፣ ነገር ሁሉ ሚስማር ይመስለዋል Give a small boy a hammer, and he will find that everything he encounters needs pounding.
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Re: To PP supporters who deeply love their country. This is your future, act now!
For once, you and me have agreed on the issue of good governance. That is a good start.
The whole sub Sahara is in the same boat. It looks like the colonizers are setting the continent for recolonization.
This cycle of war in the horn of Africa will continue indefinitely. The enemies of the region are very happy to assist in providing weapons. The warring factions are more than happy to accept it for a favour. Leaders of the region are happy to carry on with a distractive excuses.
The whole sub Sahara is in the same boat. It looks like the colonizers are setting the continent for recolonization.
This cycle of war in the horn of Africa will continue indefinitely. The enemies of the region are very happy to assist in providing weapons. The warring factions are more than happy to accept it for a favour. Leaders of the region are happy to carry on with a distractive excuses.