Washington Picks Egypt in Nile Dispute, Tells Ethiopia to “Give or Sell” the Power
Yared Seyoum
https://birrmetrics.com/washington-pick ... the-power/
January 17, 2026
The United States has urged Ethiopia to generate electricity from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and have it “given or sold” to Egypt and Sudan, while prioritising firm guarantees on Nile water flows — a move that aligns Washington squarely with Cairo in the long-running water dispute.
In a January 16, 2026 letter to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, US President Donald Trump offered to restart American-led mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia, stressing that no country should be allowed to “unilaterally control” the Nile’s resources at the expense of its neighbours.
While recognising Ethiopia’s right to produce power from the dam, Trump’s message placed downstream water security for Egypt and Sudan at the centre of any future agreement, calling for predictable water releases during droughts and prolonged dry years. He suggested that Ethiopia could still benefit economically by exporting electricity to its neighbours, effectively reframing GERD as a regional power plant rather than a strategic water asset.
Trump wrote, echoing Egypt’s long-standing argument that Ethiopia’s upstream control threatens regional stability.The United States affirms that no state in this region should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile, and disadvantage its neighbors in the process,
The letter also praised El-Sisi’s role in brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and highlighted Egypt’s leadership in managing regional security and humanitarian challenges since October 7, 2023, reinforcing Washington’s close political alignment with Cairo. Trump warned that the GERD dispute should not escalate into military confrontation between Egypt and Ethiopia, saying it was among his top foreign policy priorities as he pursues what he described as lasting peace in Africa and the Middle East.
Trump’s strong backing of Egypt reflects a long-standing personal and political relationship with El-Sisi that dates back to the 2016 US presidential campaign, when the two first met on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Trump publicly described El-Sisi as a “fantastic guy” with whom he had “good chemistry,” a sharp contrast to the more critical stance taken by the Obama administration over Egypt’s human rights record. El-Sisi was reportedly the first foreign leader to congratulate Trump after his election victory, and in April 2017 Trump hosted him at the White House, praising his leadership and expressing strong support for Egypt’s counterterrorism efforts.
Despite widespread reports of mass arrests, enforced disappearances and restrictions on political freedoms in Egypt, Trump approved the release of about 1.3 billion US dollars in annual US military aid to Cairo and later referred to El-Sisi as his “favourite dictator” during a 2019 G7 summit. The partnership proved mutually beneficial: Egypt retained strong US political and military backing, while Trump viewed Cairo as a key regional ally on security, counterterrorism and Middle East diplomacy, including its role in mediating between Israel and Palestinian groups.
Human rights organisations, however, have long criticised the relationship, arguing that it reflects a shared disregard for democratic norms and accountability.
The closeness between the two leaders has also been shadowed by unproven allegations that Egypt attempted to covertly support Trump’s 2016 election campaign. A Washington Post investigation published in August 2024 cited classified US intelligence suggesting Egyptian officials approved a plan to secretly provide Trump with 10 million US dollars when his campaign was facing cash shortages in the final days before the vote.
Five days before Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, an organisation linked to Egyptian intelligence reportedly withdrew 10 million US dollars in cash from a state-run bank in Cairo. US investigators later examined whether the money reached Trump’s campaign, which would have violated US laws banning foreign election contributions.
The inquiry was closed in 2020 by Trump’s Attorney General William Barr, citing a lack of sufficient evidence, and no charges were filed. While there is no direct proof the money reached Trump, critics argue the episode raised questions about the depth of political alignment between the two leaders.
The GERD, Africa’s largest hydroelectric project, is central to Ethiopia’s development strategy and energy ambitions. Ethiopian officials argue the dam is essential for lifting millions out of energy poverty and insist the Nile is a shared resource. For Egypt and Sudan, however, the dam has become a symbol of growing water insecurity, particularly during dry years. Cairo has consistently demanded a legally binding agreement governing the filling and operation of GERD, warning that uncoordinated water management could threaten its agriculture, economy and population.
Previous African Union-led negotiations have failed to produce a comprehensive deal, leaving the dispute unresolved. Trump’s latest intervention signals renewed US pressure — this time with a clear tilt toward Egypt’s water-first agenda, offering Ethiopia electricity exports as a concession while backing Cairo’s core demand for guaranteed water flows.
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ደብዳቤው “ላሸማግላችሁ” የሚል ቢመስልም ወደ አንድ ወገን ያጋደለ ነው። ማሳያውም ደብዳቤው በቀጥታ ወደ ግብፅ መንግስት የተላከ ሆኖ፣ ለኢትዮጲያ በግልባጭ ነው እንዲደርስ የተደረገው።
(ግልባጩ ከአብይ ይልቅ ለፕርዝዳንቱ መደረጉ ኢጎውን ለመኮርኮም የተደረገ ፖሊቲካዊ አሽሙር ሳይሆን ፎርማሊቲ ነው ብለን እንለፈው።)
― ጃዋር መሓመድ 🥺
