Horus wrote: ↑26 Dec 2025, 12:16It was exactly two years ago that Ethiopia and Somaliland signed the now defunct MOU.
I for one never doubted the just quest of the people of Somaliland to their statehood. Ethiopia due to massive international pressure back off from the MOU.
But it does not matter, the main historic event is we have a new country that is a friend of Ethiopia next door.
I, Horus, have been attacked and insulted so much on this Forum for 2 years for may advocacy of Somaliland!
Today, I rest my case! I win ! All of you who thought I was a dreamer lose!
We demand Sodo to immediately relinquish gurage culture to gurage get lost into filthy gada and irecha system. We demand Sodo to immediately relinquish gurage culture to gurage get lost into filthy gada and irecha system.Zack,
Horus wrote: ↑26 Dec 2025, 13:30Zack,
We don't know. Things are very complex. If you deeply think about it, it was very premature for Ethiopia to achieve that goal then. You see, now Somaliland will have sort out some core issues as a stable nation particularly the issue of Awal (Adal) region. Ethiopia needed unified agreement from all clans before investing for such long term and critical commitment.
For example, Ethiopia builds a navy base there and a few years down the road Adwal state separates and asks Ethiopia to leave. Now what? All Somalilanders were not on the same page in granting Ethiopia a piece of land and navy base.
If you ask me personally, the current situation is the best opportunity for Ethiopia. Ask me why?
The Somalia's legal fiction about indivisibility of Somalia is no more. Somaliland is a sovereign state. Other regions such as Puntlnad or even Jubaland might become more and more independent from Mogadishou.
US will very soon recognize Somaliland because this whole move by Israel is done in coordination with USA. US want to kick out or check China out of the Horn and Red Sea region (actually from the Middle east).
Now, Ethiopia is going to move most her port uses to Berbera and Lamu which is going to cut Djibouti to size. The destiny of Djibouti is totally tied to Ethiopia.
Egypt's effort to build forces in Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea is facing new challenges. I have been writing on this forum that Israel is becoming a Red Sea and Horn of Africa regional power. This is a dream come true for Ethiopia.
It is true US -China contention will test Ethiopian non-aligned kind of policy between the super-powers but all in all this is all good for us.
Turkey is a very unreliable towards Ethiopia. China never supported Ethiopian quest for Sea access.
So in my view Ethiopia has to soften the soil first. Remove/weaken Egypt's influence/encirclement of Ethiopia and create multiple ports for her commerce. Then work on Assab or other options- Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland, Somalia etc. for a navy base.
In nature and politics, everything changes. Somaliland and Ethiopia can swap lands literally - one getting massive Ethiopian land the other getting a sea coast!
Bottom line - the Horn of Africa has changed for good.
This is a solid US-Israel joint move. There are two critical elements here. US has shifted its focus from defending Ukraine to competing/contending with China in the Middle East. So, any day, the Ukraine war will stop and full American attention is moving to Middle East, Red sea and Bab el Mendeb.
ደደብ donkey sodo!Horus wrote: ↑26 Dec 2025, 14:53This is a solid US-Israel joint move. There are two critical elements here. US has shifted its focus from defending Ukraine to competing/contending with China in the Middle East. So, any day, the Ukraine war will stop and full American attention is moving to Middle East, Red sea and Bab el Mendeb.
Somaliland is the anchor geopolitical location of this American focus including a major American military base in Somalland. Connected to US focus is reduction of US engagement from Somalia passing security matters to others such as Ethiopia, etc
The second major development is Israel. The question is who can protect the Red Sea from Houthis, Al-Shaba, Isis etc? It is Israel in collaboration with UAE etc.
This means Israel is now clearly a Red Sea power and also a Horn of Africa power. This is what no body is talking about.
Turkey, Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Al-Burhan ????
These are forces now clearly standing against USA, Isreael, UAE. As can be seen Saudis and Qatar are silent because eventually they will have to follow American position.
In fact the coward Egyptians openly will say one thing and privately follow US position.
China's issue with Somaliland is Taiwan. So when SLR changes their position with respect to Taiwan, China also will recognize SLR.
Ethiopia is sitting in a good position except with China and Turkey and Russia.
Russia is a true friend of Ethiopia. So, the question is what will Russia's position will be?
China usually doesn't mix politics and economic, so Ethiopia can recognize SLR without annoying China.
Turkey is untrustworthy manipulative relation with Ethiopia. What we need to do is replace Turkey by India for Trade and ignore Turkey's influence on Ethiopian policy.
In short, Ethiopia will recognize SLR right after UAE, UK, US etc
2026 is a massive year for Ethiopia!
This is the thinking of individual with mental illness and keyboard, win what? Your HIV/AIDS infested pickpocket subhuman Kistane listro are in the process of being swallowed by the Gallas, Go see a psychiatrist asap.I rest my case! I win !