Ethiopia’s loud “we need sea access” campaign is NOT about history or economics.
It’s a dying regime’s last card: create an external enemy (Eritrea) to distract from civil wars, 2 million dead in Tigray, famine, and total state collapse.
The “Axum owned the Red Sea” story? Pure myth.
Axum was a shared civilization (Eritrea–Sudan–Yemen–Ethiopia).
Adulis, the real ancient port, is in today’s Eritrea.
Menelik II himself chose southern conquests over the coast in 1896.
1952–1991 control? Illegal annexation reversed by 30-year liberation war & 1993 referendum.
Legally? Zero case.
Violates AU border sanctity + UN law.
Abiy speaks “peaceful access” in English, but threatens “by force” in Amharic & “it’s our time to rule” in Oromiffa.
Classic diversionary war tactic from a regime that lost control at home.
Result? Eritrea flipped the script.
From “Asmara Doctrine” now runs the board:
• Fierce non-alignment
• Battle-hardened deterrent army
• Controls Bab el-Mandeb gateway
• Built Egypt–Sudan–Saudi–Somalia anti-hegemony bloc
Ethiopia wanted a port.
Eritrea became the new indispensable power.
Three futures ahead:
1. Ethiopia collapses → millions of refugees + Al-Shabaab paradise
2. New ethno-hegemon rises → permanent cold war & arms race
3. Inclusive transition in Addis → real peace, shared corridors, Blue Economy boom
Only #3 lets Eritrea switch from fortress to development mode.
Bottom line:
The “Red Sea Gambit” backfired spectacularly.
Addis Ababa is burning; Asmara is rising.
The Horn’s new center of gravity is no longer Arat Kilo.
It’s Asmara. The Eritrean Sea is forever Eritrean.
https://redseabeacon.com/the-red-sea-ga ... ns-future/
