Re: የሻቢያ ላኪ ከተማ!
≛ From Dreams of the Sea to a Storm at Home
Ethiopia’s ጨቅላ prime minister is heading toward disaster, driven by reckless ambition. Like the leaders before him, from Haile Selassie to Meles Zenawi, he dreams of seizing Eritrea’s strategic port of Assab by force.
But where history punished his predecessors, Abiy Ahmed seems determined to repeat their mistakes. The odds, however, are mercilessly stacked against him. Ethiopia’s economy is collapsing, international support has evaporated, and his army, fractured along ethnic lines, can barely contain domestic rebellions; let alone face a battle-hardened Eritrean military.
Eritrea leaders did not need to fire a shot to watch his plan collapse. Through careful geopolitical maneuvering, they managed to cut him off both domestically and regionally. His grip on Amhara and Tigray has already slipped, Afar is next in line, and the ensuing unrest in the Ogaden and Somali regions threatens to follow.
What began as an ego-driven quest to turn landlocked Ethiopia into a maritime power now spirals into a full-blown political crisis at home, one that endangers not only his grip on power but the very survival of the Ethiopian state.
Whether Abiy Ahmed dares to wage war on Eritrea or not, his leadership is already on borrowed time. The pressure from within, unrest, rebellion, and crumbling authority, is enough to keep him trapped in turmoil.
In the end, this downfall is of his own making, the inevitable consequence of provoking Eritrea.
Ethiopia’s ጨቅላ prime minister is heading toward disaster, driven by reckless ambition. Like the leaders before him, from Haile Selassie to Meles Zenawi, he dreams of seizing Eritrea’s strategic port of Assab by force.
But where history punished his predecessors, Abiy Ahmed seems determined to repeat their mistakes. The odds, however, are mercilessly stacked against him. Ethiopia’s economy is collapsing, international support has evaporated, and his army, fractured along ethnic lines, can barely contain domestic rebellions; let alone face a battle-hardened Eritrean military.
Eritrea leaders did not need to fire a shot to watch his plan collapse. Through careful geopolitical maneuvering, they managed to cut him off both domestically and regionally. His grip on Amhara and Tigray has already slipped, Afar is next in line, and the ensuing unrest in the Ogaden and Somali regions threatens to follow.
What began as an ego-driven quest to turn landlocked Ethiopia into a maritime power now spirals into a full-blown political crisis at home, one that endangers not only his grip on power but the very survival of the Ethiopian state.
Whether Abiy Ahmed dares to wage war on Eritrea or not, his leadership is already on borrowed time. The pressure from within, unrest, rebellion, and crumbling authority, is enough to keep him trapped in turmoil.
In the end, this downfall is of his own making, the inevitable consequence of provoking Eritrea.