Mereja.Forum

[Horus]

I am Horus. I don't mince words.

There are only three ways to remove Abiy Ahmed Ali from power:
(1) Social revolution
(2) Military Coup
(3) External invasion

You can combine these three methods any way you want, the basic method of removing a regime remain the same.

For ease of grasping the key points, let us not even consider the reasons why people want to remove the regime.

1
Who is hoping to see a social revolution in Ethiopia today?
(1) Some Oromo ethnic elites
(2) Some Tigray ethnic elites
(3) Some Amhara ethnic elites

1
Is there a social revolutionary movement in Ethiopia today? No, there is none. Will there be the likelihood of an impending or emerging social revolution any time in the foreseeable future? No, there is none.

Tigray, Oromo, & Amara ethnic politics are not only dying forces, they are antagonistic, self-contradictory regressive positions that are actually being dismantled by Abiy Ahmed regime. Prosperity Party is by far more modern, forward looking and progressive perspective than these three ethnic political ambitions.

So, Ethiopians need to simply ignore the noisy tiktok drama of these three ethnic dreamers.

2
Who wants a military coup in the present day Ethiopia?

According to theories of military intervention in politics, there are four basic models of military coup against a regime.
(1) Organizational model
(2) Societal Model
(3) Corporatist model
(4) Personalist Model.

There will be no organizational military coup in Ethiopia because the military is no more modern and better organized than the civilian regime.

There will be no societal military coup in Ethiopia because the military in Ethiopia is not an advocate or supporter of a particular social movement, social class or a social ideology. If at all the Ethiopian military is so divided along ethnic lines that it will never stage a coup as a unit on behalf of any particular ethnic group. What is actually taking place is that when a group of officers align with their ethnic group, they simply defect and leave the military because they are unable to organize opposition units within the army.

There will be no corporatist military coup in Ethiopia because the military does not have any major conflict with the regime regarding internal military issues such as ranking, positions, resources, equipment or pays. There may be internal dissatisfaction with respect to battles with ethnic fronts and the failure of the regime to negotiate peace with the three ethnic armed groups. But this type of dissatisfaction will not lead the officer class to stage a coup for the obvious reason that removal of the regime is not the solution for ethnic division of the society.

There will be no personalist military coup in Ethiopia because there are no ambitious and popular generals or middle rank officers that can mobilize a large enough section of the military against the regime as Gen. Mengistu Neway did. The case of Mengistu Hailemariam is different in that the imperial regime was actually removed by social revolution and military simply filled up a power vacuum.

So, when you hear idle talk about military coup in Ethiopia, ignore it.

3
Who wants external invasion to remove Abiy Ahmed's regime?
(1) TPLF
(2) Eritrea
(3) Egypt
(4) USA?

TPLF wants to return to power which it lost 7 years ago with zero chance of achieving it because the whole of Ethiopia will rise in unison not to ever see TPLF back in Addis Ababa again.

Eritrea is not only incapable of invading Ethiopia to remove the regime from power, such an adventure could lead to its removal from power. So, Eritrea will simply continue to support the ever ineffective three Ethiopian ethnic elites to destabilize the Abiy regime with no actual political outcome for these ethnic elites.

Egypt will do what it did for the last 70 years - it will support and finance Eritrean, Tigray, Oromo, and Amara ethnic elites to destabilize and disrupt Ethiopia so as to hamper our national development and our strategic position in the region and Africa.

USA -ድመት መንኩሳ አመሏን አትረሳ! America will remain Ethiopia's untrusted and unreliable double player with respect to Ethiopian national long term interest always blinded by its underlying assumption to dominate and keep us within its sphere of influence and control. My expectation is Ethiopia will not get out of BRICS and any further US alliance with Egypt against our national interest will lead to further colder relations with America.

Ethiopian foreign relations are diversified. These are the new facts.

So, when the tiktok drama tells you how US is going to tell us what to do, ignore it.

[Odie]

I am Horus. I don't mince words.

There are only three ways to remove Abiy Ahmed Ali from power:
(1) Social revolution
(2) Military Coup
(3) External invasion

You can combine these three methods any way you want, the basic method of removing a regime remain the same.

For ease of grasping the key points, let us not even consider the reasons why people want to remove the regime.

1
Who is hoping to see a social revolution in Ethiopia today?
(1) Some Oromo ethnic elites
(2) Some Tigray ethnic elites
(3) Some Amhara ethnic elites

1
Is there a social revolutionary movement in Ethiopia today? No, there is none. Will there be the likelihood of an impending or emerging social revolution any time in the foreseeable future? No, there is none.

Tigray, Oromo, & Amara ethnic politics are not only dying forces, they are antagonistic, self-contradictory regressive positions that are actually being dismantled by Abiy Ahmed regime. Prosperity Party is by far more modern, forward looking and progressive perspective than these three ethnic political ambitions.

So, Ethiopians need to simply ignore the noisy tiktok drama these three ethnic dreamers.

2
Who wants a military coup in the present day Ethiopia?

According to theories of military intervention in politics, there are four basic models of military coup against a regime.
(1) Organizational model
(2) Societal Model
(3) Corporatist model
(4) Personalist Model.

There will be no organizational military coup in Ethiopia because the military is no more modern and better organized than the civilian regime.

There will be no societal military coup in Ethiopia because the military in Ethiopia is not an advocate or supporter of a particular social movement, social class or a social ideology. If at all the Ethiopian military is so divided along ethnic lines that it will never stage a coup as a unit on behalf of any particular ethnic group. What is actually taking place is that when a group of officers align with their ethnic group, they simply defect and leave the military because they are unable to organize opposition units within the army.

There will be no corporatist military coup in Ethiopia because the military does not have any major conflict with the regime regarding internal military issues such as ranking, positions, resources, equipment or pays. There may be internal dissatisfaction with respect to battles with ethnic fronts and the failure of the regime to negotiate peace with the three ethnic armed groups. But this type of dissatisfaction will not lead the officer class to stage a coup for the obvious reason that removal of the regime is not the solution for ethnic division of the society.

There will be no personalist military coup in Ethiopia because there are no ambitious and popular generals or middle rank officers that can mobilize a large enough section of the military against the regime as Gen. Mengistu Neway did. The case Mengistu Hailemariam is different in that the imperial regime was actually removed by social revolution and military simply filled up a power vacuum.

So, when you hear idle talk about military coup in Ethiopia, ignore it.

3
Who wants external invasion to remove Abiy Ahmed's regime?
(1) TPLF
(2) Eritrea
(3) Egypt
(4) USA?

TPLF wants to return to power which it lost 7 years ago with zero chance of achieving it because the whole of Ethiopia will rise in unison not to ever see TPLF back in Addis Ababa again.

Eritrea is not only incapable of invading Ethiopia to remove the regime from power, such an adventure could lead to its removal from power. So, Eritrea will simply continue to support the ever ineffective three Ethiopian ethnic elites to destabilize the Abiy regime with no actual political outcome for these ethnic elites.

Egypt will do what it did for the last 70 years - it will support and finance Eritrean, Tigray, Oromo, and Amara ethnic elites to destabilize and disrupt Ethiopia so as to hamper our national development and our strategic position in the region and Africa.

USA -ድመት መንኩሳ አመሏን አትረሳ! America will remain Ethiopia's untrusted and unreliable double player with respect to Ethiopian national long term interest always blinded by its underlying assumption to dominate and keep us within its sphere of influence and control. My expectation is Ethiopia will not get out of BRICS and any further US alliance with Egypt against our national interest will lead to further colder relations with America.

Ethiopian foreign relations are diversified. These are the new facts.

So, when the tiktok drama tells you how US is going to tell us what to do, ignore it.

That is your delusional cadre analysis. You call it some elite? That is what want to believe. Call Ethiopia and check with ordinary people, not the thieves and you will find how bitter people are with the system. It is already rotten system operating on the same political mantra TPLF/EPRDF operated and don’t expect it to last long. This is a system with no diplomatic know how that is gunning down its own citizens whose power maintaining military is decimated everyday. እራስህ ማስገምት ከጀመርክ ስነባብተሃል!

[Right]

Garbage cadre!!

[Dark Energy]

Oldie kistane Horsee,

You sound worried. BRICKS ? President Tramp is not President Biden although I have a lot of respect for President Biden.

[Horus]

Oldie kistane Horsee,

You sound worried. BRICKS ? President Tramp is not President Biden although I have a lot of respect for President Biden.

ወንድሜ ጥቁር ሰው!
የኔ ሥራ ገለባና ፍሬ፣ እንክርዳድና ስንዴ መለየት ነው! የተንጣዩን ቲክቶክ ማቆምም ሆነ መቀነስ አልችልም ! አየህ አይደል! የጎሳ ፍየል በያለበት ስንጫጫው !! ሆረስ እባላለሁ!

[Horus]

[Horus]

[Axumezana]

Horus too shallow analysis ! Abiy has failed to govern Ethiopia , That is why there is no peace & security over the last 7 years. Ethiopia is now a failed state.

[Horus]

Horus too shallow analysis ! Abiy has failed to govern Ethiopia , That is why there is no peace & security over the last 7 years. Ethiopia is now a failed state.

Axumezana,
አይን የራሱን ጉድፍ አያይም! አንተ ለችግርህ የአለምን ሕዝብ ሁሉ በመውቀስ ከራስህ ችግር መደበቅ ትችላለህ! መብትህ ነው! ግን የሚሰማህ የለም! ወያኔ የተባለ ነቀርሳ በጻፈው ወረቀት ኢትዮጵያ ይህን ሁሉ እየደማች ያለችው!! ትግሬ አንድና አንድ እድል ብቻ አለው ጽጥ ብሎ ሰርቶ መብላት!!! እንደ ገና አዲስ አበባ መጥቼ እሰርቃለሁ ባልክ ቁጥር ከአቢይ ጋር ቆመን እንታገልሃለን ! ወያኔ የኢትዮጵያ ነቀርሳ ነው ሲባል ምን ማለት እንደ ሆነ ትግሬ ያልሆነን ሰው ጠይቅ !!! ትክክለኛ ትርጉሙን ይነግሩሃል!!

ዉሻ ወደ ትፋቱ ይመለሳል! ኢትዮጵያ ወያኔን አዲሳባ መለሰች ማለት የተፋውን የሚልስ ውሻ ሆነች ማለት ነው! የማይታሰብ ነው!!!

ሰላም ሁን

[Dark Energy]

Fu…cling Kistane Horsee,
The little twerp committed genocide on the Tigrayan people. Unfortunately, he invited an irate foreign leader with vengeance in mind. , namely Isayas to help him commit genocide on Ethiopians.Whatever happened to Abby will happen to Isayas as well. Both of these idiots pose a long term threat to the people of the Horn of Africa. Abbiy most likely will be the first one. Mother Nature may take care of the jerk a lot sooner.

[Horus]

የኦግና የጎጃም ተገንጣዮች ሕብረት ይህን ይመስላል!! መሰማት መሰማት መሰማት ያለበት መራራ እውነት !!!

[Horus]

ድንቅ ቅንቅ ድንቅ የሆነ ትንተና !!

[Horus]

የሻቢያና ወያኔ 50 አመት ፖለቲካ ከአንድ ቀውስ ወደ ሌላ ቀውስ !

[Horus]

Egypt, Egypt, Egypt !

[Horus]

[Tiago]

የጎጃም ተገንጣዮች??? Horus definitely has an issue with the people of Amhara.
There are no separatist groups in the Amhara region,but there is deep desire by OLF,Abiy ,Shimelis abdissa and the like who want to push the Amharas subtly to that end.
Let say the Amharas want to have their own breakaway nation,do you think the other ethnicities allow it to take place? In fact,the first one to oppose it will be Tigres/TPLF(Article 39 of the constitution) followed by all minority ethnic groups and some section of oronos.

Next time you use የጎጃም ተገንጣዮች,it is an indication you have lost the plot .

[Horus]

Tiago,
ኢትዮጵያን ማፍረስ ትግሬና ኦሮሞ ሲይዙት ቆሻሻ አማራ ሲይዘው ወርቅ ነው የምትለን? ሌላውን አሞኝ! ግን አትርሳ አንተም እንደ ወያኔና የኦነግ ተገንጣዮች እርስ በርህ ተባልተህ ትከስማለህ! ኢትዮጵያ ለዘላለም ትኑር!!

[Horus]

[Tiago]

" Tiago,
ኢትዮጵያን ማፍረስ ትግሬና ኦሮሞ ሲይዙት ቆሻሻ አማራ ሲይዘው ወርቅ ነው የምትለን? ሌላውን አሞኝ! ግን አትርሳ አንተም እንደ ወያኔና የኦነግ ተገንጣዮች እርስ በርህ ተባልተህ ትከስማለህ! ኢትዮጵያ ለዘላለም ትኑር!! " Horus

When Ethiopians talk about their country, You and your likes are insignificant.

[Horus]

" Tiago,
ኢትዮጵያን ማፍረስ ትግሬና ኦሮሞ ሲይዙት ቆሻሻ አማራ ሲይዘው ወርቅ ነው የምትለን? ሌላውን አሞኝ! ግን አትርሳ አንተም እንደ ወያኔና የኦነግ ተገንጣዮች እርስ በርህ ተባልተህ ትከስማለህ! ኢትዮጵያ ለዘላለም ትኑር!! " Horus

When Ethiopians talk about their country, You and your likes are insignificant. ሜዳ

ሜዳ ሙሉ መንጋን የሚነዳውኮ አንድ እረኛ ነው። ቁጥር = መንጋ።