Ethiopia, one of Africa’s oldest and most diverse nations, has long been caught in a cycle of imperial dominance, revolutionary upheaval, and reformist setbacks. Today, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate once seen as a transformative leader, the country stands again at a dangerous crossroads.
Abiy’s early tenure sparked hope: the release of political prisoners, the opening of media space, and promises of democratization. Yet increasingly, his leadership mirrors the centralized, coercive politics of Ethiopia’s past—particularly the rule of Mengistu Haile Mariam, who, despite coming to power amid revolutionary fervor, governed through repression and rigid control. Though their paths and ideologies differ—Abiy being an elected leader (somewhat in unsettling way) and Mengistu a Marxist military dictator—the outcomes of their governance show disturbing parallels: shrinking political space, reliance on military force, and a missed opportunity to unify the country through inclusive and democratic reform.
1. Ethnic Federalism: From Empowerment to Entrapment
At the core of Ethiopia’s political strife lies its system of ethnic federalism. Established after the fall of the Derg regime, it was superficially designed to “empower historically marginalized” groups by granting self-rule and the dangerous theoretical right to secede. While it appearedwell-intentioned, this structure has deeply entrenched ethnic identity in every aspect of governance, leading to: ethnic enclaves that often exclude minorities and newcomers; weaponization of identity politics; heightened competition for territory and power; recurrent armed conflicts framed as ethnic struggles.
Ethnic federalism has failed to produce genuine autonomy or equality. Instead, it has fragmented the national identity, escalated grievances, and turned Ethiopia’s diversity into a source of division. When ethnicity becomes the organizing principle of the state, the citizen is no longer the basic political unit—the group is. This undermines universal rights, encourages zero-sum politics, and weakens national cohesion.
2. The Retreat from Political Liberalization
Abiy’s rise in 2018 was marked by a wave of liberal reforms. But as ethnic parties asserted their autonomy and political rivalry intensified, the government reversed course. Elections were delayed, opposition figures jailed, and military solutions replaced political dialogue. The return to centralized control and suppression of dissent reflects a worrying authoritarian drift—similar to Mengistu’s betrayal of his own revolutionary promises.
Rather than cultivating pluralism and nurturing democratic institutions, Abiy’s government has responded to complexity with consolidation—an approach that further alienates diverse constituencies and undermines legitimacy.
3. Crushing Grievances Instead of Reconciling Them
From Tigray to Oromia and Amhara the federal response to local discontent has too often been military. Just as Mengistu viewed political opposition as a threat to be crushed, Abiy’s administration has framed many grievances as security issues rather than calls for justice, representation, or autonomy.
Mass arrests, internet blackouts, and armed operations may provide temporary control but fail to resolve underlying issues. Grievances silenced through force do not disappear—they fester and return with greater fury.
4. “My Way or the Highway”: Ethnic Disparities and Centralized Control
By dissolving the EPRDF coalition and replacing it with the Prosperity Party, Abiy sought to transcend ethnic politics. However, critics argue this move consolidated power under a new banner without establishing a truly inclusive federal alternative. The result? A deepening perception that certain ethnic groups are favored while others are sidelined—fueling further polarization. Unity cannot be imposed. It must be earned through shared governance, inclusion, and respect. Without consensus, top-down centralization risks becoming just another form of dominance.
5. Endless War vs. Sustainable Peace
Ethiopia’s history is scarred by war with internal insurgents, and increasingly, within itself. Abiy’s administration has followed this pattern. The Tigray war, with its devastating human cost, epitomized the dangers of militarized governance. Current conflicts in Amhara and Oromia persist, while a comprehensive peace and reconciliation strategy remains absent.
Victory on the battlefield cannot build a stable nation. Restorative peace requires listening, healing, and compromise. Ethiopia needs not just ceasefires, but a moral and political reckoning with its history of exclusion and violence.
The Way Forward: A New Political Compact for a Unified Ethiopia
To avoid repeating the tragic cycles of the past, Ethiopia must abandon ethnic federalism as the organizing principle of its state and embrace a model built on citizen-based governance. Ethnic identity can and should be protected—but it must not define access to rights, resources, or representation.
1. A Credible, Inclusive National Dialogue
Bring together representatives of all regions, armed groups, political parties, civil society, women, and youth. Only a broad-based national dialogue can chart a consensual path forward.
2. Transition to a Citizen-Based Federal System
Retain local governance and cultural recognition, but shift from ethnic boundaries to administrative and geographic divisions. Build a system where all Ethiopians are equal citizens first, and ethnic identity is respected but not politicized.
3. Democratic Institution-Building: Strengthen judicial independence; guarantee press freedom and civil liberties; protect electoral integrity through an impartial commission; depoliticize the military and security forces.
4. Forging Peace Through Justice
Establish mechanisms for transitional justice to address atrocities committed under the Derg, EPRDF, and in recent conflicts by prosperity party. Truth and reconciliation are essential for healing.
5. Equitable Development Across All Regions
End the perception of Addis Ababa as the sole center of prosperity. Invest in health, education, and infrastructure across regions to reduce marginalization and resentment.
Conclusion: Choosing Country Before Ethnicity
Abiy Ahmed still has a chance to correct course—but that window is narrowing. He was entrusted with a mandate of reform and reconciliation, not repression and retrenchment. Ethiopia does not need another authoritarian strongman. It needs a statesman—a unifier who can rise above ethnic politics, forge a national identity built on shared values, and usher in a democratic, inclusive future. The path forward is difficult but clear: move beyond ethnic federalism, empower the Ethiopian citizen, invest in democratic institutions, and pursue reconciliation over domination. Only then can Ethiopia become not just a mosaic of ethnic groups, but a unified, resilient, and thriving nation.