Mereja.Forum

[Horus]

September 3, 2024
1
Divided and Multi-polar global powers
(1) US
(2) UK
(3) Russia
(4) France
(5) China
(6) UK
(7) ITALY
These world powers cannot form a united policy on the Horn of Africa.

2
Divided and multi-polar regional powers
(1) Israel
(2) Saudi Arabia
(3) Qatar
(4) United Arab Emirates
(5) Turkey
(6) Egypt
(7) Iran

Each of these regional powers want to control parts of the Red Sea, the Nile river and control natural resources of Sudan (gold), South Sudan (oil), Eritrean (ports), Ethiopian (water, land), Somalia (ports, oil, fish) as well as markets, cultures and populations.

1. Turkey controls Somalia, core interest- geoeconomic & military rather than geopolitical. Turkey contends with UAE & to some degree with Egypt too.
2. Egypt wants to encircle Ethiopia by controlling Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia & Djibouti – core Egyptian interest geopolitical & military rather than geoeconomic
3. UAE controls Sudan, Somaliland, Ethiopia, & some influence on Egypt. Core interest geoeconomic & geopolitical rather than geomilitary
4. Saudi controls Djibouti
5. Iran controls Yemen

3
Divided and multi-polar regional countries
(1) Ethiopia
(2) Eritrea
(3) Sudan
(4) South Sudan
(5) Somalia
(6) Somaliland
(7) Kenya
(8) Djibouti
(9) Yemen?
With the exception of Kenya, every one of these countries are in conflict with each other.

4
Internally divided, fractured, war torn countries of the Horn of Africa
(1) Ethiopia: Tigray war, Amara war, Oromo war, Beni-Shangul, Gambella etc….
(2) Eritrea – EPLF and Brigade Nehamedu, Afar
(3) Sudan Military & RSF
(4) South Sudan Tribal wars
(5) Somalia – Somalia, Somaliland, Putnland, Al Shabab & many more clan/regional conflicts
(6) Djibouti – Afar v. Issa

5
Horn of Africa a Land of Complex Proxies
(1) Ethiopia allies with UAE, Morocco, RSF, Somaliland, Puntland, South Sudan? Kenya?
(2) Eritrea allies with Saudi, Egypt, Sudanese military, Somalia
(3) Sudan military allies with Saudi, Egypt, Eritrea, South Sudan?
(4) Sudan RSF allies with UAE, Ethiopia,
(5) South Sudan allies Sudan military, Egypt?
(6) Somalia allies with Italy, Turkey, Egypt, Eritrea, Djibouti
(7) Somaliland allies with UAE, Ethiopia
(8) Djibouti allies with Somalia, Saudi
(9) Kenya US main ally, competes with Ethiopia for regional influence

6
Global Powers vs. Countries
(1) Ethiopia + China + Russia + UK? + US? Ethiopia has no clear single bloc policy. BRICS member, Distance from US
(2) Eritrea + Russia & China
(3) Sudan + US? +Russia? +?
(4) South Sudan?
(5) Somalia + US
(6) Kenya + US Main ally in Africa
(7) Djibouti +France, China, US,

7
Uncertain Roles
African Unity
UN
IGAD
Arab league
8
What happens with respect to MOU:
(1) Ethiopia has core economic, military, Security & strategic interests in Somaliland
(2) Somaliland has core political and economic & security interests in Ethiopia
(3) Egypt’s core interest – encircle Ethiopia, keep Ethiopia away from Red Sea, oppose MOU, collude with Turkey against Ethiopia
(4) Turkey will not sacrifice its huge economic relations with UAE and its economic interest in Ethiopia for the sake of Somalia unity. Most likely control only the Somalia part of the region. Most likely collude with Egypt.
(5) UAE has huge economic interest in Somaliland and food and water interest in Ethiopia. UAE could come in conflict with both Egypt & Turkey
(6) Israel could join the conflict on the side of Ethiopia against Egyptian & Turkish expansion
(7) Somalia has already allied with Turkey & Egypt against Ethiopia for security and economic interest but will lose Sovereignty over Somaliland and try to hold on to Puntland.
(8) Proxy war in Somaliland between Somalia and Ethiopia possible; Ethiopian-Somalia war on other fronts possible

9
THE FATE OF ETHIO-SOMALILAND MOU
More than 90% chance of being implemented. If MoU becomes an agreement…

10
Who will train the Ethiopian Navy?
(1) Pakistan?
(2) India?
(3) Turkey?
(4) France?
(5) US?
(6) UK?
(7) Italy?
(8) ISRAEL?
(9) Morocco?

The Immutable law is that everything changes. Therefore, all of the above ideological, political, economic, military positions, alliances and conflicts will change in time. Friends become enemies, enemies become friends. The strong becomes weaker, the weak becomes stronger. In the end, the intelligent, the wise, the clear thinker and the resilient will win.

Horus ze Ethiopian

[Horus]

RSF GAVE STERN WARNING TO EGYPTIAN FOLLY IN SOMALIA - MUST LISTEN!

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[Horus]

THE MOROCCO - ETHIOPIAN MILITARY ALLIANCE! - MUST LISTEN! WHO IS ENCIRCLING WHO?

[Horus]

EGYPT HAS GOTTEN THE ETHIOPIA NOTICE!

[Horus]

[Somaliman]

THE MOROCCO - ETHIOPIAN MILITARY ALLIANCE! - MUST LISTEN! WHO IS ENCIRCLING WHO?

You still keep relying on this Paki is his tiny kitchen in Pakistan!

FYI, not only is Morocco in the Arab League, but also, it has an excellent relation both with Egypt and Somalia.

You've heard that Egyptians are landing in Somalia, so you're already sh'itting your pants and are running around in search of an alliance!

[Horus]

Somaliman,

Said Bare did exactly the same thing and that led to the destruction of Somalia. This will be the same. If Hassan Sheik want to replay, the idiotic Saied Bare, it will finally be the end of Somalia - expect at least 4 or 5 Somali countries!! Keep playing with fire!

[Abere]

Horus,

The geopolitical map is interestingly detail and very revealing. It is a must for Ethiopia to have a footing in the Red Sea. Ethiopia cannot afford be an idle spectator of actors - sadly all the acts mostly targeting Ethiopia.

[Somaliman]

Somaliman,

Said Bare did exactly the same thing and that led to the destruction of Somalia. This will be the same. If Hassan Sheik want to replay, the idiotic Saied Bare, it will finally be the end of Somalia - expect at least 4 or 5 Somali countries!! Keep playing with fire!

Who would fight for you, as Tigrayans and Amhara won't fight for a Galla Bantu war? This tsunami of Galla that surrenders en masse on the first gunshot?

https://x.com/i/status/1462895989656858633

[Abere]

Eriwoman,

Egypt is making noise of invading Ethiopia, not a particular ethnic group in Ethiopia. You have to play that childish cheap trick in your dirty street of Aba-Shawel.

Somaliman,

Said Bare did exactly the same thing and that led to the destruction of Somalia. This will be the same. If Hassan Sheik want to replay, the idiotic Saied Bare, it will finally be the end of Somalia - expect at least 4 or 5 Somali countries!! Keep playing with fire!

Who would fight for you, as Tigrayans and Amhara won't fight for a Galla Bantu war? This tsunami of Galla that surrenders en masse on the first gunshot?

https://x.com/i/status/1462895989656858633

[Selam/]

የዚያን ጊዜማ ኢትዮጵያ አንድ ነበረች።

ዕድሜ ለዕንጭጩ ዓብዮትህ፣ ህዝባችን ተሸንሽኗል ከሁሉም ጉረቤት ሃገሮችም ጋር ተጣልተናል። ሻዕቢያና ግብፅን ያስፈነደቀውም ይሄው ነው።

Somaliman,

Said Bare did exactly the same thing and that led to the destruction of Somalia. This will be the same. If Hassan Sheik want to replay, the idiotic Saied Bare, it will finally be the end of Somalia - expect at least 4 or 5 Somali countries!! Keep playing with fire!

[Horus]

Horus,

The geopolitical map is interestingly detail and very revealing. It is a must for Ethiopia to have a footing in the Red Sea. Ethiopia cannot afford be an idle spectator of actors - sadly all the acts mostly targeting Ethiopia.

አበረ፣
በትክክል! ይህ ሁሉ ኢትዮጵያን ለማፈን ፣ ኢትዮጵያን ለማንበርከክ ስለመሆኑ ምን ጥርጥር አለው። Kings of Abay ድንቅ የአባይ ተሟጋች አርበኞች (የአረብኛ ሊቆች) ግብጽን እግር እግር እየተከተሉ የሚያጋልጡን አንዱን ለጥፌልሃለሁ ። አሁን ትልቁ ጥያቄ እውነት ግብጽ ጦርነት ፍልጋለች ወይስ ያው የተለመደ ማስፈራራት ነው የሚለው ላይ ነው የሁሉም ሃሳብ! እኔ ጠላትን መናቅ አልወድም! ጦርነት ይኖራል ብላ ኢትዮጵያ ብፀጋጅ ነው አዋጩ እስትራተጂ ።

የ Geopolitical map በችኮላ የሞጫጨርኩት ነው ። የጎደለውን ጨምርበት ፣ እኔ የinternational politics ተማሪ አይደለሁ ። ግ ን ስለ አፍሪካ ቀንድ ስንወያይ framework ይሰጠናል በሚል ነው ።

[sun]

Somaliman,

Said Bare did exactly the same thing and that led to the destruction of Somalia. This will be the same. If Hassan Sheik want to replay, the idiotic Saied Bare, it will finally be the end of Somalia - expect at least 4 or 5 Somali countries!! Keep playing with fire!

Who would fight for you, as Tigrayans and Amhara won't fight for a Galla Bantu war? This tsunami of Galla that surrenders en masse on the first gunshot?

As a paranoid buffoon you want to bring out the Satan hate from inside you to come out and overtake you so that you may try your dirty second chance, hoping that Ethiopians may not stand up and fight against lunatic barberian foreign aggressors, not knowing the fact that we Ethiopians love to put our abilities together, hold hands, take up our shields which no earthly sword power can penetrate as well as grab our magic Swords which can penetrate any earthly super shields. We know for sure that foreign aggressors lurking around are not coming to fight one Ethiopian group and leaving other Ethiopian groups safe but dream to conquer ethiopia as a country and erase it from the map if possible. That is also how Ethiopians in historical times got united and fought all types of over armed, over fed, intoxicated and substance sniffing and arrogant treasure hunting Bandas and colonialists of all types so as to keep Mamma Ethiopia independent and proud example of freedom for Africa, and the world.

Hopefully sisterhood, brother hood, diplomacy, rationality and peace may prevail because even a single death is a tragedy when we have to save life instead of taking away life.

[Horus]

[Horus]

[Horus]

[Horus]

MY COUNTRY ETHIOPIA MAKING SPECTACULAR LIGHTENING MOVES ON ALL FRONTS- MILITARY, DIPLOMATIC, POLITICAL !!! EL-SISI FACING A WALL !!

[Fiyameta]

General Tsadkan, the inventor of human-wave military tactic, has joined hands with PM Abiy to scare off Egypt with his loud cries and tears.

[Selam/]

በዚህ ሁሉ ግርግር የሚጠቀመው ማነው ቢባል አልሸባብ ነው።

ምክንያቱም ኢትዮጵያና ግብፅ ካብ ለካብ እየተያዩ ይቆዩ ይሆናል እንጂ በቀጥታ አይዋጉም። ግብፅ ከአባይ በረሃ ተምዘግዝጋ አፍንጫችን ስር ወታደሯን ማስፈሯ ለኢትዮጵያ ቅሌት ነው። ግን ግብፅ ከዚያ ባለፈ ሃገራችንን ልትወጋ የምትችልበት ምንም የሚሊታሪ ሎጂስቲክ የላትምም መቼም አይኖራትምም። ሆኖም፣ አልሸባብና የመሳሰሉትን አሸባሪዎች በእጅ አዙር በመጠቀም ረብሻ ለመፍጠር መሞከሯ አይቀሬ ነው።

ኢትዮጵያ በሌላ በኩል በእነ ብርሃኑ ጁላ ዓይነቶት ሰካራምና ጫታም ሰዎች የምትመራ ሃገር በመሆኗና መንግስት ግማሹን የሃገሩቱን ክፍል ማስተዳደር አቅቶት የአዲስ አበባና መብራት አሸብራቂ ብቻ በሆነበት አቋሙ፣ የመግለጫ ጋጋታ ከማውጣትና ካድሬዎቹን ከማንጫጫት ባሻገር ምንም ሌላ ነገር የማድረግ አቅም የለውም። ሆኖም አሸባሪ ተጠቅሞ የግብፅን መጤ ሰራዊት ዕረፍት ሊያሳጣው ይችላል። በዚህ መሃል ግን የሚሰቃየው አንድ ጊዜ እንኳን በልቶ ማደር ያቃተውና ታግሰህ ጠብቅ በመጨረሻ የአይ ኤም ኤፍ ብድር ጠብ ይልልሃህ የተባለው የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ ነው። ፉክክሩ ኢትዮጵያ በብድር ግብፅ ደግሞ በችሮታ በሚያገኙት ገንዘብ መሆኑ ነው።

ለዚህ ሁሉ መንስዔው ደግሞ ካድሬዎቹ እነ ሆረስ የሚያሽቃብጡለት እንጭጩ አቶ ዓብዮት ነው።

[Horus]