Mereja.Forum

[Horus]

[Tiago]

119.8057 Br = US $ 1 seconds ago

this is live market

https://ethioblackmarket.com/

[Horus]

119.8057 Br = US $ 1 seconds ago

this is live market

https://ethioblackmarket.com/

Yes, this is exactly what the floating market is supposed to do. Remember, today Central Bank sold dollar to 27 banks at 108.00. , And, these 27 banks now compete to sale their dollars to the public at different prices. Some will ask 120.00, some will ask 118.00 others could go for 115.00 - depending on the amount of marginal profit each bank wants to make. So, as long as central bank makes enough dollar available for these banks and as long as these banks don't hide the dollar they buy from CBE, the need for black market will die out . This is why Ermiyas Amelga called for legal action against the banks that try to hide dollars.

[Horus]

[Odie]

What about the government dollar auctioning thing?
Is it normal? Is it not injecting dollar in the system to avoid unrest? A government that barely had a dollar a while ago now injecting into the system dollar as mafia after it got IMF kind of bailout?
How long can it auction dollar? The country’s weak agriculture and housemaid export driven economy will somehow start driving the exchange soon and the true picture will continue to emerge !

[Right]

The black market will further strengthen. Amelga is a deceptive person. The Ethiopian system/the market will not allow free market to function. Never. Not at this point.
Free market is not something you can copy and paste. There are economical fundamentals that has to be in place. A decades long process in the best of circumstances.

The Ethiopian economy will further deteriorate.
I hate dishonest people. Just line them up and shoot them. That will be a favour to society.

[Odie]

………
Truth is truth!
They deceptively solicited the IMF conditions to fill their coffer with dollar knowing they (the mafia) will play the rules once they get what they wanted so that they don’t fall in the trouble of public unrest as seen elsewhere. The question is: how long will they be able to manipulate and sustain calm?

[wubebereha]

it is payday time so this is inevitable, but how long is the IMF going to subsidize the dollar to the government. without solving the many problems the nation has so it can generate the dollar this is not going to work.

[Educator]

The fact that a dollar is worth 107 Birr indicates shortage of supply. The black market is probably in a wait-and-see situation. Once it knows where the bank rate settles, the black market rate will shoot to a point it feels economically worthy.

The supply source of the black market is the diaspora. If someone sending money to Ethiopia feels the amount of Birr he/she receives has enough repurchasing power, then it keeps sending with such rate. If not they wait till the rate is acceptable. So, in short the black market rate is determined by the price of goods and services in the country, not by the banks floating mechanism. And as we have seen these days, the prices of everything got so high that sending money to Ethiopia for investment is not a worthy action. So just wait till the price of goods settle.

[Right]

Folks,
99% of Ethiopians has never seen a dollar. They don’t buy and sell a dollars. They don’t have the means and the desire.
It is the 1% elites who are the money launderers. Government officials and corrupt businessmen in collusion with government officials who are hoarding and laundering money. All this so called corridor development and mega projects are a money laundering scheme.
If you remember during the woyannies era the UK banks reported an excessive amount of money more than the UK government gives in Aid to Ethiopia has been transferred to the UK banks.
It is even worst now.
The black market will be around as long as the current political and economical system is not changed.
You better get organized and dislodge this Mafia group.
Don’t believe their distractions BS.

[TGAA]

We seem to miss the forest for the trees. Those who have access to foreign currency, whether on the black market or through banks, make up no more than 10% of the population. Unfortunately, when we focus on them, we completely overlook the 90% who won’t see what’s coming when the prices of imported goods skyrocket. This situation is unavoidable, and the impact will be life-changing, hitting city dwellers much harder than rural residents. Even farmers, though less connected to the international system, will feel the strain when gas prices rise, affecting their ability to bring products to the cities.

Many countries have swallowed the IMF's prescription hook, line, and sinker. Southeast Asian nations are prime examples of this. While they may have improved their foreign currency flow, these societies have been deeply bruised and may never fully recover. These countries have turned into havens for child molesters and Western retirees who pay next to nothing to exploit vulnerable children and teenagers in open markets.

Everyone seems concerned about a small group of people who would be fine regardless of whether the exchange rate is floating—they are capable of buying whatever they need. For a country ranking 153rd on the prosperity index, opening the market wide to merciless foreign "investors" without any economic protection for the poor demonstrates Abiy’s reckless determination to play Russian roulette with the lives and future of 130 million Ethiopians.

[Educator]

You know the government already knew this policy was a failure before it was announced that they tried to sugarcoat it with subsidies and pay raises. The only benefit they saw was the one billion dollar IMF was making available for them. That wouldn't even cover the four months oil import.
Now they are trying to blame "greedy merchants" apparently forgetting the greedy government entities that skyrocketed their prices for services, i.e. immigration for passport, Ethiopian airlines for domestic flights, and so on.

What is still surprising is the black market rate run by CBE is still going on for diaspora senders. That is sickening. CBE running the black market. So much confidence in their own policy.

We seem to miss the forest for the trees. Those who have access to foreign currency, whether on the black market or through banks, make up no more than 10% of the population. Unfortunately, when we focus on them, we completely overlook the 90% who won’t see what’s coming when the prices of imported goods skyrocket. This situation is unavoidable, and the impact will be life-changing, hitting city dwellers much harder than rural residents. Even farmers, though less connected to the international system, will feel the strain when gas prices rise, affecting their ability to bring products to the cities.

Many countries have swallowed the IMF's prescription hook, line, and sinker. Southeast Asian nations are prime examples of this. While they may have improved their foreign currency flow, these societies have been deeply bruised and may never fully recover. These countries have turned into havens for child molesters and Western retirees who pay next to nothing to exploit vulnerable children and teenagers in open markets.

Everyone seems concerned about a small group of people who would be fine regardless of whether the exchange rate is floating—they are capable of buying whatever they need. For a country ranking 153rd on the prosperity index, opening the market wide to merciless foreign "investors" without any economic protection for the poor demonstrates Abiy’s reckless determination to play Russian roulette with the lives and future of 130 million Ethiopians.

[Union]

Witaf neqay horus

ዶላር እየቀነሰ ነው ነው ያልከው?

የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ አልቆ እኔ እበላለሁ ብለህ አፈንድደህ የምትጠቃለት ህልም እየቀነሰ ነው። ዶላር ብቻ አይደለም የቀነሰው

[Horus]

What about the government dollar auctioning thing?
Is it normal? Is it not injecting dollar in the system to avoid unrest? A government that barely had a dollar a while ago now injecting into the system dollar as mafia after it got IMF kind of bailout?
How long can it auction dollar? The country’s weak agriculture and housemaid export driven economy will somehow start driving the exchange soon and the true picture will continue to emerge !

Odie,
the government selling dollar to the banks is what we call money supply. It is one of the measures of monetary policy. The dollar valu e goes up because of shortage of dollar supply, just like any other value carrying commodity the financial market also operates by the rules of supply and demand. The way governments intervene and regulate or influence the free market is through monetary and Fiscal policy dynamics - monetary policy has to do with the supply and demand of money in the market. Fiscal policy has to do with government spending/revenue - that is budget and taxation. For example, salary increase for government workers, budget increase for all kinds of departments and public projects. So if governments want to inject money and stimulate the economy, they increase spending. Banks lower interest rates and stimulate borrowing. If that causes inflation (more money chases fewer goods), then the government tightens money supply, banks raise interest rates and discourage borrowing and spending. etc ....

As for IMF & WB, Abiy refused to devalue or float Birr for 2 years and finally he had to make the choice between total economic collapse or bow down to the demands of the borrowers. In other words, the government knows exactly that there could be crisis including popular uprisings.