Re: Isaias, by the directive of Egypt, will provoke Abiy to war but Isaias will be the loser and he will be toppled !
I doubt it. Isayas has no moral or legal reasons that he can commit himself to war for in which he will lose more than he gain.
There is no disputed territory like he used to complain about Badme belonging to him. Ethiopia has not directly or openly laid claim on Assab. No border incursions to his border lands. He just can't justify massive lose of lives and properties. Eritrea seas Ethiopia as a Goliath which will avoid war with it if given a chance.
He will also have to explain his actions to the UN why he chose war or provoking war instead of arbitration at the UN. A diplomatic fiasco for Isayas. Certain, he will lose friends in Africa because AU also expects disputes brought to it before choosing war.
Eritrean economy is another question whether it can sustain another war. Prolonged droughts, 10% of farmers conscripted to serve in the army at sawa. Youth exodus. Many professionals imprisoned. Diaspora experts can't come in easily. Travels within Eritrea restricted. Lack of adequate energy for household use, for hospitals and manufacturing. Electricity supply is dismal: may be 3-4hrs a day. Same tale for internet.
Are the US and EU sanctions on Eritrea lifted?
Egypt is more important to the US and Europe than is Ethiopia because of 1)Suez canal and 2)to stop supporting Palestinian right to self-determination, in which regard he eliminated the Muslim brotherhood Party. Closed the border between itself and Ghaza, and signed a military accord with Israel. As a proxy of the West, these are its mandates. For outside of these, he has to receive request from the US, for example, to meddle in Ethiopian affairs thru Eritrea. If not requested, how will explain his actions when US and Britain come to know about thru their intelligence? They can stop their $3billion/yead aid if not happy.
Mind you, Egypt can't use the Abbay Dam issue as an excuse because it's negotiated well between itself, Sudan and Ethiopia about which Ethiopia is very compliant and has not closed the file.
Just because Egypt is or was the Chairman of the Arab League, it does not mean it owns the Arab league. These are independent countries, not subjects of Egypt to jump on its request to wage war on Ethiopia.
Also, Ethiopia has since recently made friends with UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia. Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia are both of members of BRICS. I am sure they have protocols to discuss about policies they are not happy with. And if they can't agree mutually, the protocol would require them the issue(s) to bring to BRICS for arbitration before waging on each other.
My 2 cents!
sleep well if you're not wishing war on Ethiopia!!