Mereja.Forum

[DefendTheTruth]

Fact: Ethiopia has not devalued, it simply let the value freely float based on supply and demand (free market, not controlled).

In the black market the value of $ has been something around 120 ETB, the banks are now allowed to sell and buy according to their negotiated rate, without any control from the government or any other agency, according to the new macroeconomic policy of the government and the related directives of NBE.

The National Bank of Ethiopia permitted banks to buy and sell foreign currency at freely negotiated rates, according to a directive on its website. The central bank will make “only limited interventions to support the market in its early days and if justified by disorderly market conditions.”

The CBE started to sell and buy the $ at around 75 Birr, not something over 100 Birr, which is just around over 20% instead of the 100% some people were expecting the currency to plunge once the control is removed.

This shows the dollar supply was artificially reduced to help the egoist traders in the market (or other players for some sort of sinister motives).

Ethiopia’s biggest lender - the state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia — quoted the birr at 74.74 against the dollar at 10:59 a.m. in the capital, Addis Ababa, on Monday morning. That’s 23% weaker than the closing rate of 57.7769 on July 26.

The youtube mob immediately started to echo unheard news of reducing the value of Birr by a government directives. Helpless souls, as always.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ethiopia ... 35007.html

[sesame]

Stop trying to spin the desperate move. Who do you think is going to sell their dollars for 70 Birr a dollar? The reason the Birr was floating at 120 per dollar is because of supply and demand, there were too many people with a lot of Birr wanting to convert and not enough dollars in the nation's coffers. That is not going to change. If anything, the people will now lose more confidence in the Birr. Moreover, expect a steep rise in prices in all commodities immediately. Already Agames are reporting pride rises. However, you PP clowns try to spin this, it is a sign of more rote of the system. If a dollar was selling for 120 Birr yesterday in the black market, floating the Birr is not going to change that.

https://www.facebook.com/10005218724139 ... l/?app=fbl

Please wait, video is loading...

[Horus]

DDT,
I don't think you understand how this thing works. Now, the central bannk ENB has 2.9 billion USD. Big firms and businesses that need large amount of USD will have to buy it from the central bank because the Black market does not have that much USD to sell at $120 per 1USD.(if the black market has 3 billion dollars we wouldn't have dollar shortage)! While big dollar buyers go to central bank, small time Dollar buyers go to the Black market for a much better deal. This rate difference between the bank and street rate will force the bank to lower the price of Birr further which means bidding for 90 birr, 100 birr etc for 1 USD. So, the game just began. You call the spade a cat, but it is a spade - it is called birr devaluation.

[DefendTheTruth]

DDT,
I don't think you understand how this thing works. Now, the central bannk ENB has 2.9 billion USD. Big firms and businesses that need large amount of USD will have to buy it from the central bank because the Black market does not have that much USD to sell at $120 per 1USD.(if the black market has 3 billion dollars we wouldn't have dollar shortage)! While big dollar buyers go to central bank, small time Dollar buyers go to the Black market for a much better deal. This rate difference between the bank and street rate will force the bank to lower the price of Birr further which means bidding for 90 birr, 100 birr etc for 1 USD. So, the game just began. You call the spade a cat, but it is a spade - it is called birr devaluation.

It is possible that I don't understand, but the facts need to be told: the government didn't devalue the birr, it let it float (rise and fall depending on the prevailing condition).

EBC started to buy and sell $ based on the condition of the market, don't you agree? For that it must have concluded a thorough study of the market and its influencing factors.

If it is simply trying to impede the rate at which dollar could be sold, then it is going to lose money of its own (its customers), because it also sells not only buys. It should be not only a risky business but also a simple bs decision of throwing out the money through the window.

First to let the market control the rate takes an extra precaution from the decision makers, they studied the factors that are going to influence the market for years, before deciding.

If CBE doesn't know what it is doing today and I know better than that, then for me to get rich over night should be just as easy as going to buy dollar and hoard in my coffers. After few months, if not weeks, I know dollar will increase in rate and I can cash on it. Isn't it as simple as that?

It must have determined these selling and buying rates after making a sound market study, I simply guess, but you are entitled to lecture me that you understand and I don't.

I can also add one more fact: Ethiopia is fundamentally changing with regard to its monetary policy, like money supply based on interest rates and vice-versa.

We are entering the era of free market, now I can also take all my dollars without any fear of confiscation, if I fail to declare the amount at the entry point of the country.

Do you know what DDD stands for, anyway?

[DefendTheTruth]

DDT,
I don't think you understand how this thing works. Now, the central bannk ENB has 2.9 billion USD. Big firms and businesses that need large amount of USD will have to buy it from the central bank because the Black market does not have that much USD to sell at $120 per 1USD.(if the black market has 3 billion dollars we wouldn't have dollar shortage)! While big dollar buyers go to central bank, small time Dollar buyers go to the Black market for a much better deal. This rate difference between the bank and street rate will force the bank to lower the price of Birr further which means bidding for 90 birr, 100 birr etc for 1 USD. So, the game just began. You call the spade a cat, but it is a spade - it is called birr devaluation.

Simpleton,

you can take a crash course on the topics of macro economy and fundamental components, the interdependence and interplay of the factors.

You react to events, without trying to understand the consequential interdependence of the sum of the factors. This has been in the making for years!

If you have never taken a course in the field of macro-economy, then the best thing you can do is spare yourself from public embarrassment.

[Selam/]

“The era of free market”

Woyane said the same thing 30 years ago to appease US. But in reality, there can’t be any free market where there is no democracy. Because free market works only in a system where there is little or no interference from the government. Whereas madman Abiyot is managing light fixture types, fountains, house construction, placement of trees, etc.

[Educator]

Sesame,
Do you mind if I change your sentence from
"there were too many people with a lot of Birr wanting to convert and not enough dollars in the nation's coffers. "

to

"there were too many people with a lot of Birr wanting to convert and ZERO dollars in the nation's coffers. "

Because that is what is the reality on the ground.

Stop trying to spin the desperate move. Who do you think is going to sell their dollars for 70 Birr a dollar? The reason the Birr was floating at 120 per dollar is because of supply and demand, there were too many people with a lot of Birr wanting to convert and not enough dollars in the nation's coffers. That is not going to change. If anything, the people will now lose more confidence in the Birr. Moreover, expect a steep rise in prices in all commodities immediately. Already Agames are reporting pride rises. However, you PP clowns try to spin this, it is a sign of more rote of the system. If a dollar was selling for 120 Birr yesterday in the black market, floating the Birr is not going to change that.

https://www.facebook.com/10005218724139 ... l/?app=fbl

Please wait, video is loading...

[Somaliman]

Guess what!

For many years, the vaults of the central bank of Somalia were empty, as there wasn't a single bank in Somalia, leave alone a central bank, yet people were exchanging between the US dollar and the Somali schilling in both ways in any amount. And since there wasn't any central bank to print or supply Somali schilling notes, some people used to even have their own printing machines to print Somali schilling notes and they were still able to exchange them for US dollars.

Without sounding condescending, your prime trouble clearly stems from the obvious fact that you're lacking in the academic knowledge around which this subject revolves. In other words, you do not seem to have sufficient foundational knowledge in this subject upon which to build your argument.

[Tiago]

black market rates often provide a more accurate reflection of a country’s economic circumstances than official exchange rates.
If you imagine black market currency is conducted by shady characters in dark alley ways,you are certainly well behind the times or you are trying your upmost to hoodwink the uninformed.

[Somaliman]

black market rates often provide a more accurate reflection of a country’s economic circumstances than official exchange rates.
If you imagine black market currency is conducted by shady characters in dark alley ways,you are certainly well behind the times or you are trying your upmost to hoodwink the uninformed.

When market-based exchange rate mechanism is officially put in place, black market loses relevance and would not have any significance or role to play.

[Educator]

@10:21 DDT admitting his lack of knowledge:

It is possible that I don't understand, but the facts need to be told: the government didn't devalue the birr, it let it float (rise and fall depending on the prevailing condition).

@13:26, after taking a crash course from two moron cadres, he attempted confidently to lecture a colleague, Horus, who is confused about devalution vs floating currency:

Simpleton,

you can take a crash course on the topics of macro economy and fundamental components, the interdependence and interplay of the factors.

You react to events, without trying to understand the consequential interdependence of the sum of the factors. This has been in the making for years!

If you have never taken a course in the field of macro-economy, then the best thing you can do is spare yourself from public embarrassment.

[Tiago]

A floating exchange rate means that the currency value is affected by the economic actions of the PP government or central bank. Ethiopia has an unstable economy, investors will be put off and less willing to invest, which means that the currency will not be highly valued.When the value of money declines , it causes inflation, and the result is a price increase for everything, including basic goods.
The current economic situation we have under PP is not going to change.Abiy ahmed will continue with war against the amhara ,build palaces,etc and corruption to go with it.

[DefendTheTruth]

የስግብግብ ነጋዴ ጉዳይ፣ አሁንም አልጠልቅ ብሎ በቁም እያሰቃያቸዉ ነዉ..
Finally, even youtubers started to comprehend what is going on.

[DefendTheTruth]

Where is Somaliman today?

I sprayed my DDT on the fly and made him disappear from the face of the earth? Well, I only wish him to learn something, not to disappear.

Ethiopia will get 16.6 Billion US-Dollar over the next 3 years, not the 3.4 Dollar he blabbered about somewhere.

[sesame]

Ethiopia will get 16.6 Billion US-Dollar over the next 3 years, not the 3.4 Dollar he blabbered about somewhere.

PP clowns are desperate to sell their capitulation to the Western imperialists. To add insult to injury, their clownish PM actually congratulated them on a deal that overnight reduced the value of their bank accounts by 30% and how far it will go down we will see. We may soon see the 100 birr note disappear in Ethiopia as prices sky-rocket, and you can't even buy chewing gum with it.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a bailout of $3.4bn (£2.6bn) for Ethiopia to support its economic reforms over the next four years.

[Educator]

Now 16 billion?

Where is Somaliman today?

I sprayed my DDT on the fly and made him disappear from the face of the earth? Well, I only wish him to learn something, not to disappear.

Ethiopia will get 16.6 Billion US-Dollar over the next 3 years, not the 3.4 Dollar he blabbered about somewhere.

[Somaliman]

If the IMF lending a few billions to Ethiopia, which is already in the midst of debt crisis as it has failed to pay the interests owed on its outstanding Eurobond debt, excites you with joy, then, trust me, you haven't got any brain in your skull but excrement.

The debt-trap of the IMF doesn't mean any more or less than a neo-colonialist stranglehold around the neck of the poor, which your shithole is the perfect example.

Borrowing money to pay off old debt and increase the debt burden of your population to prosper the wealthy debt owners and finally become their slave charms only an uneducated idiot Galla talking out of his ar'se.

[Affable]

I am not an economist. If I know anything related to economic I only count my 101 class of economics in college. Economists are bunch of guys who could not commit to anything. In one hand or the other hand is their typical way of analyzing economic conditions. Maybe I am hard on them. What I am trying to say is you cannot decide what the devaluation of birr will bring the very same day we heard about the devaluation. It takes time to know.
I don’t think DTT has studied economics for a living. I am glad he has not chosen that subject. He would be a terrible student on economics.
DTT and the Isayes Afeworki guys on ER are an interesting bunch. They do not want to hear any criticism about their leaders.
They assume the criticizer must be out of his/her mind to even think of “ badmouthing” their heroes.
That is as close as you could get of not thinking at all.
You could admire and support your chosen leader, but you shouldn’t assume he cannot and will not make mistake of any kind.
That unsubstantiated support is not generally really heart-felt.
When you wrap up your whole life with an individual, your stock goes up high or low based on that person’s performance. Your adulation of that person maybe is an adulation of yourself.
How bad I could be as long as I and the “ dear leader” share the same policy and politics , as I mentioned
earlier, is synonymous with not thinking.

[DefendTheTruth]

Yes, Affable, I must be part of the bunches, who are some sort of the herd being driven around by all sorts of claims in our country today.

I don't know how the market could develop in the future, I don't think any guru can say about the market ahead of time with certainty, else he/she must have been the richest man of the world.

I thought for a long time that you are better off the average members of the heard in the political arena of Ethiopia today only until you opted to join in and start clapping your hands for the mob trying to enter the palace of "their fathers". And should I wonder myself now that you accuse me of not able to think? NO! Not only you were disappointed at me not joining the mob and start clapping my hands while it march to enter the palace of its fathers, but also you accused me of even Amhara phobia, without any evidence.

I have never said in here or somewhere, as far as I remember, a human being can't make a mistake, you can prove me wrong of course. I do but consider Abiy Ahmed a strategist and someone who can think ahead much better than the average Joes. We can see and live, unless you are determined not to accept anything outside of the mob's futile and endless propaganda, the facts on the ground in this regard.

It is human to appreciate a positive contribution of other fellow humans and criticize their failures objectively.

Free market has been adopted by many countries around the world and so far proved itself sustainable (based on the prevailing conditions on the ground) and I still fail to foresee why it should fail in the case of Ethiopia, and which other alternative should be adopted in the case of Ethiopia.

I am not an economist, like you said, but tried to base my judgment on my pure instinct and reading internet pieces here and there.

Do you think that I am alone in that? Here an example of other observers who are also cautiously optimistic of the path Ethiopia has chosen for her journey towards final prosperity (at least for the coming generation and giving some sort of hope to our youth).

Having said that I am also conscious Ethiopia freed the political landscape before the mass was ready and paid dearly in the last few years and still paying for that, the same could repeat itself in the case of freeing the economic landscape. But we can't avoid going to bed just for the fear of bad dreams, like the saying goes.

[DefendTheTruth]

If the IMF lending a few billions to Ethiopia, which is already in the midst of debt crisis as it has failed to pay the interests owed on its outstanding Eurobond debt, excites you with joy, then, trust me, you haven't got any brain in your skull but excrement.

The debt-trap of the IMF doesn't mean any more or less than a neo-colonialist stranglehold around the neck of the poor, which your shithole is the perfect example.

Borrowing money to pay off old debt and increase the debt burden of your population to prosper the wealthy debt owners and finally become their slave charms only an uneducated idiot Galla talking out of his ar'se.

Come back and comment on this your own comment in about 3 to 4 years.

Do you dare?