Mereja.Forum

[Fiyameta]

[Zack]

Zack,
It is hard to follow your logic. Remember, 6 months ago there was a joke going around about the location of Ethiopian Navy! Eritreans were suggesting Lake Langano or lake Awasa!!!

Today, the whole world is talking about best and optimal Ethiopian port and sea access choices - (1) Djibouti, (2) Adwal/Zeyela, (3) Lughaya, (4) Berbera, (5) Hobiyo, (6) Lamu, (7) port Sudan, (8) Assab !!!!!

You Eritreans can cut and past as many fotoshop images as you wish, Ethiopia has put her national question of access to the Red Sea on an irreversible trajectory.

As for Somaliland, its independence is entirely separate from Ethiopian needs. SLR will be a free nation be it with Ethiopian recognition or other countries recognition.

Why Ethiopia is hesitant is precisely because it does not want to win the battle and lose the war. It want to secure its critical diplomatic position in HoA, bring certain critical influential powers on board and make intelligent moves. In short Ethiopia is self-correcting her January hasty moves.

That being said as we speak, there two winners in this game Somalland and Ethiopia - both have internationalized their issues and made their demands a global agenda!

Your argument appears to lack a fundamental comprehension of international law and the historical context regarding Ethiopia's access to the sea. Allow me to elucidate why Ethiopia does not possess an inherent right to sea access through Eritrean or Somali territory, and why such aspirations are both unfounded and impractical.

Firstly, the notion that Ethiopia has a right to sea access disregards the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that govern international relations. Eritrea, as a sovereign nation, maintains exclusive control over its coastline and ports. The suggestion that Ethiopia can unilaterally claim access to the Red Sea through Eritrea undermines Eritrean sovereignty and contravenes established international legal norms.

Furthermore, historical context is paramount. Ethiopia was a landlocked country for the majority of its history, except for the brief period following World War II when it annexed Eritrea. The subsequent independence of Eritrea in 1993, which was recognised by the international community, reinstated Eritrea's control over its coastal territory. Any attempt by Ethiopia to assert a right to sea access through Eritrea would not only be legally indefensible but also politically destabilising.

Regarding the list of port options you mentioned (Djibouti, Adwal/Zeila, Lughaya, Berbera, Hobyo, Lamu, Port Sudan, Assab), it is crucial to differentiate between diplomatic negotiations for port access and an inherent right to such access. Ethiopia's reliance on Djibouti for maritime trade is a product of bilateral agreements, not an assertion of an intrinsic right. Similarly, any potential use of other ports would necessitate mutual agreements with the respective sovereign states, rather than unilateral claims.

The notion that Ethiopia is on an "irreversible trajectory" to gain Red Sea access is more a reflection of national aspirations than of practical geopolitical realities. Ethiopia's strategic diplomatic efforts in the Horn of Africa must respect the sovereignty of its neighbours to maintain regional stability and secure cooperative agreements beneficial to all parties involved.

As for Somaliland, its quest for independence and international recognition is a distinct issue from Ethiopia's maritime aspirations. Ethiopia's recognition or non-recognition of Somaliland will not determine Somaliland's status; that will be shaped by the broader international community and through the dialogues between Somalia and Somaliland regarding their future relationship. Ethiopia's hesitation to recognise Somaliland likely stems from the complexity of regional politics and the need to balance relations with Somalia and other influential actors in the region. Historically, Ethiopia has preferred to keep Somaliland in a state of limbo, leveraging this ambiguity to maintain influence, as seen during the tenure of Meles Zenawi. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Somaliland was perhaps an exploratory measure, intended more to test the waters rather than to secure immediate access to the sea.

All in All , while Ethiopia's ambition to access the Red Sea is understandable from a geopolitical and economic perspective, it must be pursued through diplomatic channels and with respect for international law. Sovereign states cannot be compelled to cede territory or rights without mutual consent, and any deviation from this principle risks undermining regional stability and international order. Consequently, Somalia and Djibouti currently hold the advantageous positions, as Ethiopia remains landlocked and Somaliland remains unrecognised.


Dr Zackovich

[Horus]

Zack,
Question: where do you this whole thing will end? You can paste all the Gen AI images you want!!! Just ponder where this thing is going!??? IT IS NOT GOING AWAY!!! JUST KNOW THAT!!

[Somaliman]

I got a live one for you folks. I am now urging the leaders of Africa to permanently relocate the AU headquarter from Addis/Finfinne. I have two best choices for them.

1) Mogadishu - The recent extensive study done by other organization has rated this city to be the most people secured and peaceful city in the world. You can hear a pin drop there now. My number one expert in the affairs of the Horn of Africa, Af-Mishaar, told me that residents in that feel so secure that they leave their doors open when they go to sleep. Mogadishu beach is now rivaling Miami Beach.

2) Asmara - The research group I created just returned from a month long trip to that city. The original plan was for only one week stay but the city was so attractive that they forgot about their overstaying. Italian tourists who come for a visit fall in love with that city so much that they don’t want to leave. That is why Italians are the most deported foreigners from that country in the history of tourism.

I will announce their choice today at half a minute after midnight.so stay tuned. Otherwise, if you miss it you will never hear about it.

I had Al-Qahirah(Cairo) as another choice for them but that is a long story.

My Eritrean friends,

You might not have properly read the bullsh.it this stupid muppet has scribbled, above. He's in fact mocking and making fun of Mogadishu, Asmara, and Cairo, which are, as you know, the capitals of three countries which Ethiopia has lately been having beef with.

This crap comes from the very same fuc'ker who parrots in his useless and boring monologues, "dear Horn Africans, dear brothers and sisters from the HoA, I pray for you all, peace y'all, we're all one people, the sky will be the limit for what the peoples of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia can become, etc"!!

For his information, Mogadishu is currently much safer and cleaner than Addis. The only safety issue in Mogadishu is Al Shabab, and these have specific targets and do not mess with everybody.

Due to his well advanced age, I believe he's suffering from symptoms of dementia. Otherwise, he shouldn't forgotten that Asmara is officially a UNESCO World Heritage site, while in Addis, over 80% of the population live in slums.

Be careful, this fuc'ker has perfected the art of speaking with a forked tongue.

[Zack]

Horus dear lad when will u get it !!!!

The situation will likely unfold as follows: Ethiopia will remain landlocked, Djibouti will continue to manage Ethiopia's import and export activities in the region, Somalia will sustain and enhance its stability, and Somaliland will persist in its current state of limbo Not recognised nor united with Somalia .

I do not believe the Memorandum of Understanding will come to fruition at least not in this form . The intention behind the MOU, as I previously elucidated, was merely to test the waters, Somaliman made that one clear also,, without any genuine commitment to follow through. Ethiopia certainly does not intend to recognise Somaliland, as doing so would significantly disrupt the delicate balance in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia lacks the audacity to confront or challenge Somalia on this issue, hence their participation in the talks brokered by Turkey.

Furthermore, Djibouti recently invited the SSC leader to Djibouti, and a militia is being trained in Ali Sabiix with the aim of reclaiming the Zeila and Lughaya areas, traditionally Issa territories my clan. This development further diminishes the possibility of the separatists in Hargeisa garnering Ethiopian support. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the separatists in Hargeisa are being played by Ethiopia, which has no real interest in their so-called independence and is merely using them as pawns for the time being.

For Somaliland, engaging in talks with Mogadishu is the only viable way forward indeed dear lad.


Dr Zackovich

[Zack]

Ethiopia and South Sudan Unveil Historic Agreement to Revolutionize Regional Trade and Security.

Ethiopia and South Sudan have forged a significant agreement to enhance security and trade through the construction of a new oil pipeline route.

Finalized on July 6, 2024, the deal between officials from both nations along their shared border represents a pivotal step toward improving economic ties and infrastructure development.

Key resolutions include plans to mobilize resources for building a vital road connecting Upper Nile State’s Gambella-Pagak through Maiwut to Malakal-Maluth and Paloich. This strategic route will facilitate oil transportation via Berbera port, reinforcing regional trade and security coordination.

Previously, South Sudan’s National Legislative Assembly approved $778 million for a highway project linking the country with Ethiopia, highlighting their commitment to joint economic prosperity.

Officials such as David Nyang from Upper Nile State praised the agreement as essential for fostering peace, stability, and bilateral relations. Deputy Minister Semaya K. Kumba described the agreement as a historic milestone, emphasizing its potential to address mutual challenges and deepen cooperation between the two countries.

Where do u think it will export it from yeah i told u Djibouti

dr zackovich

[Somaliman]

Horus dear lad when will u get it !!!!

The situation will likely unfold as follows: Ethiopia will remain landlocked, Djibouti will continue to manage Ethiopia's import and export activities in the region, Somalia will sustain and enhance its stability, and Somaliland will persist in its current state of limbo Not recognised nor united with Somalia .

I do not believe the Memorandum of Understanding will come to fruition at least not in this form . The intention behind the MOU, as I previously elucidated, was merely to test the waters, Somaliman made that one clear also,, without any genuine commitment to follow through. Ethiopia certainly does not intend to recognise Somaliland, as doing so would significantly disrupt the delicate balance in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia lacks the audacity to confront or challenge Somalia on this issue, hence their participation in the talks brokered by Turkey.

Furthermore, Djibouti recently invited the SSC leader to Djibouti, and a militia is being trained in Ali Sabiix with the aim of reclaiming the Zeila and Lughaya areas, traditionally Issa territories my clan. This development further diminishes the possibility of the separatists in Hargeisa garnering Ethiopian support. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the separatists in Hargeisa are being played by Ethiopia, which has no real interest in their so-called independence and is merely using them as pawns for the time being.

For Somaliland, engaging in talks with Mogadishu is the only viable way forward indeed dear lad.


Dr Zackovich

Furthermore, Djibouti recently invited the SSC leader to Djibouti, and a militia is being trained in Ali Sabiix with the aim of reclaiming the Zeila and Lughaya areas, traditionally Issa territories my clan. This development further diminishes the possibility of the separatists in Hargeisa garnering Ethiopian support.

This further complicates matters for Ethiopia's ill-advised and injudicious venture.

The trouble is that you can explain it to him in such an articulate and well expressed way, but you cannot understand it for him.

[Zack]

Here is the thing with Horus this genius clearly has no understanding of Somalia the region thé dynamics. The things he reads are just info on Wikipedia.

What he doesn’t understand Ethiopia now is even losing the attention of the separatist they can’t understand why is abiye so eager to talk to the Somali government if he wants to go through with the deal. The thing is the intention was never really To go ahead with the deal others are saying his real intention was showing the diplomatic or testing the diplomatic strength of Ethiopia and it back fired also he wanted to make statement against Eritrea ,that he don’t need them ,the same calculated error meles made when he signed the trade port deal with Djibouti . So furthermore the secessionist in hargeisa are now even not sure if they are going through with the deal when they just recently found out that Ethiopia had no intention to recognise their independence. So why try to hurt the Djibouti port trade where they have a stake in aswell. Or why give a naval base to Ethiopia for fifty years and Ethiopia doesn’t even wants to recognise the independence. This deal is dead I don’t even understand why we are talking about it.

Dr Zackovich

[Jikaar]

Horus dear lad when will u get it !!!!

The situation will likely unfold as follows: Ethiopia will remain landlocked, Djibouti will continue to manage Ethiopia's import and export activities in the region, Somalia will sustain and enhance its stability, and Somaliland will persist in its current state of limbo Not recognised nor united with Somalia .

I do not believe the Memorandum of Understanding will come to fruition at least not in this form . The intention behind the MOU, as I previously elucidated, was merely to test the waters, Somaliman made that one clear also,, without any genuine commitment to follow through. Ethiopia certainly does not intend to recognise Somaliland, as doing so would significantly disrupt the delicate balance in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia lacks the audacity to confront or challenge Somalia on this issue, hence their participation in the talks brokered by Turkey.

Furthermore, Djibouti recently invited the SSC leader to Djibouti, and a militia is being trained in Ali Sabiix with the aim of reclaiming the Zeila and Lughaya areas, traditionally Issa territories my clan. This development further diminishes the possibility of the separatists in Hargeisa garnering Ethiopian support. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the separatists in Hargeisa are being played by Ethiopia, which has no real interest in their so-called independence and is merely using them as pawns for the time being.

For Somaliland, engaging in talks with Mogadishu is the only viable way forward indeed dear lad.


Dr Zackovich

Somaliland position is very clear , we may only consider to reach an actual agreement with Ethiopia. If they become the first country to recognise somaliland, our president made that very clear on television , Infront of abiy Ahmed. No recognition means no Naval base. Trade is different issue.

somaliland Wil defenitely achieve it's economic goals with Ethiopia. With or without the recognition. The hostile policies adopted by Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia against Ethiopia will further push Ethiopia to the somaliland and kenya side. There is no point of dealing with hostile nations in the long term. Little djibouti have to pay the price of fking with mama Ethiopia , you won't be breast feeded again.

In somaliland we are actually very cool with the idea of djibouti supporting insurgencies against The Ethio-somaliland MOU. This serves our interests , without crisis we can't get the opportunities we are looking for , we too will invite Afar militants to mess the whole thing into an other level.

[Horus]

Jikaar,
I am sure you have noticed me say that Somalilanders are clear eyed thinkers. And, you just said,

" In somaliland we are actually very cool with the idea of djibouti supporting insurgencies against The Ethio-somaliland MOU. This serves our interests , without crisis we can't get the opportunities we are looking for , we too will invite Afar militants to mess the whole thing into an other level."

well said.

This is exactly how I have been thinking about Ethiopia's quest for Red sea access - disrupting the status quo. Just go back to January 2024 and review how far the two issues (Somaliland recognition & Ethiopia's sea access) have come!!! It is also true that Ethio-Somaliland relation is beyond port access - it is economic, strategic, it is long term. You are also on the money about Djibouti trying to destabilize Somaliland or Ethiopia! Those who live in glass houses shall not throw stones - the saying goes. We can make Djibouti pay for her hostilities.

"

[Jikaar]

Jikaar,
I am sure you have noticed me say that Somalilanders are clear eyed thinkers. And, you just said,

" In somaliland we are actually very cool with the idea of djibouti supporting insurgencies against The Ethio-somaliland MOU. This serves our interests , without crisis we can't get the opportunities we are looking for , we too will invite Afar militants to mess the whole thing into an other level."

well said.

This is exactly how I have been thinking about Ethiopia's quest for Red sea access - disrupting the status quo. Just go back to January 2024 and review how far the two issues (Somaliland recognition & Ethiopia's sea access) have come!!! It is also true that Ethio-Somaliland relation is beyond port access - it is economic, strategic, it is long term. You are also on the money about Djibouti trying to destabilize Somaliland or Ethiopia! Those who live in glass houses shall not throw stones - the saying goes. We can make Djibouti pay for her hostilities.

"

Djibouti and Eritrea have everything to loose if we both support their afar minorities. Indeed those who are living in glass houses should not throw stones.

[Abere]

Horus caused lots of panic, nervousness and insecurity among Shabian/Eritrean trolls.

In my opinion two things exposed the TRUE color of Shabia (that is they bitterly are against Ethiopia).

1) All of a sudden when the news on Somaliland- Ethiopia MOU port/naval base circulated - they totally came nervous and begun [deleted]. That speaks volume.

2) A YouTube video posted by a tourist (White man) exposed how Eritrean has been rotten, rusted, deserted, delipidated. That really broke the news to the world Eritrea is the most failed province - it is only serving as breeding ground of violence, terror just like the Al Shabab version of Somalia. Eritrea province is run by a suicidal thug.

Whenever a port issue is discussed it makes them sneezing, instinctively. Because they feel very much insecure - they know they stole Ethiopian rightful port. If they were confident, they would not buzz like a fly here and try to interfere Ethiopian view.

Well, when Ethiopia gets a consensus leadership and durable governance structure, the first order of business is to recover stolen port of Assab. Ethiopia shall declare Assab is her - there will not be any beating around the bush, unlike PP-OLF Abiy.

[Somaliman]

Horus caused lots of panic, nervousness and insecurity among Shabian/Eritrean trolls.

In my opinion two things exposed the TRUE color of Shabia (that is they bitterly are against Ethiopia).

1) All of a sudden when the news on Somaliland- Ethiopia MOU port/naval base circulated - they totally came nervous and begun [deleted]. That speaks volume.

2) A YouTube video posted by a tourist (White man) exposed how Eritrean has been rotten, rusted, deserted, delipidated. That really broke the news to the world Eritrea is the most failed province - it is only serving as breeding ground of violence, terror just like the Al Shabab version of Somalia. Eritrea province is run by a suicidal thug.

Whenever a port issue is discussed it makes them sneezing, instinctively. Because they feel very much insecure - they know they stole Ethiopian rightful port. If they were confident, they would not buzz like a fly here and try to interfere Ethiopian view.

Well, when Ethiopia gets a consensus leadership and durable governance structure, the first order of business is to recover stolen port of Assab. Ethiopia shall declare Assab is her - there will not be any beating around the bush, unlike PP-OLF Abiy.

[Zack]

Jikaar,
I am sure you have noticed me say that Somalilanders are clear eyed thinkers. And, you just said,

" In somaliland we are actually very cool with the idea of djibouti supporting insurgencies against The Ethio-somaliland MOU. This serves our interests , without crisis we can't get the opportunities we are looking for , we too will invite Afar militants to mess the whole thing into an other level."

well said.

This is exactly how I have been thinking about Ethiopia's quest for Red sea access - disrupting the status quo. Just go back to January 2024 and review how far the two issues (Somaliland recognition & Ethiopia's sea access) have come!!! It is also true that Ethio-Somaliland relation is beyond port access - it is economic, strategic, it is long term. You are also on the money about Djibouti trying to destabilize Somaliland or Ethiopia! Those who live in glass houses shall not throw stones - the saying goes. We can make Djibouti pay for her hostilities.

"

Djibouti and Eritrea have everything to loose if we both support their afar minorities. Indeed those who are living in glass houses should not throw stones.

We have the affar in Djibouti completly under our control the same way we have the affars in Ethiopia under our Thumb now

The afars in Eritrea are non existend they are even weaker then the one in Djibouti.


Dr Zackovich

[Zack]

Horus dear lad when will u get it !!!!

The situation will likely unfold as follows: Ethiopia will remain landlocked, Djibouti will continue to manage Ethiopia's import and export activities in the region, Somalia will sustain and enhance its stability, and Somaliland will persist in its current state of limbo Not recognised nor united with Somalia .

I do not believe the Memorandum of Understanding will come to fruition at least not in this form . The intention behind the MOU, as I previously elucidated, was merely to test the waters, Somaliman made that one clear also,, without any genuine commitment to follow through. Ethiopia certainly does not intend to recognise Somaliland, as doing so would significantly disrupt the delicate balance in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia lacks the audacity to confront or challenge Somalia on this issue, hence their participation in the talks brokered by Turkey.

Furthermore, Djibouti recently invited the SSC leader to Djibouti, and a militia is being trained in Ali Sabiix with the aim of reclaiming the Zeila and Lughaya areas, traditionally Issa territories my clan. This development further diminishes the possibility of the separatists in Hargeisa garnering Ethiopian support. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the separatists in Hargeisa are being played by Ethiopia, which has no real interest in their so-called independence and is merely using them as pawns for the time being.

For Somaliland, engaging in talks with Mogadishu is the only viable way forward indeed dear lad.


Dr Zackovich

Somaliland position is very clear , we may only consider to reach an actual agreement with Ethiopia. If they become the first country to recognise somaliland, our president made that very clear on television , Infront of abiy Ahmed. No recognition means no Naval base. Trade is different issue.

somaliland Wil defenitely achieve it's economic goals with Ethiopia. With or without the recognition. The hostile policies adopted by Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia against Ethiopia will further push Ethiopia to the somaliland and kenya side. There is no point of dealing with hostile nations in the long term. Little djibouti have to pay the price of fking with mama Ethiopia , you won't be breast feeded again.

In somaliland we are actually very cool with the idea of djibouti supporting insurgencies against The Ethio-somaliland MOU. This serves our interests , without crisis we can't get the opportunities we are looking for , we too will invite Afar militants to mess the whole thing into an other level.

Ethiopia's potential agreement with Somaliland were, in reality, a mere exercise in diplomatic posturing, designed to gauge the reactions of its regional counterparts Djibouti Somalia kenya and Egypt rather than a genuine attempt to solidify a binding accord. If Ethiopia were genuinely invested in the proposed deal, it would have been implemented three months ago, as initially promised. The fact that the agreement's fate remains uncertain, with august now approaching, suggests that Ethiopia has shifted its stance.

It is evident that Ethiopia is hesitant to proceed with recognition of Somaliland due to the profound implications it would have on the regional dynamics. The country is acutely aware that such a move would alter the delicate balance of power in the Horn of Africa and potentially create new alliances that could erode its own influence.

Furthermore, Ethiopia is cognizant of the potential repercussions on its relationship with Djibouti, a crucial partner in the region. It is unlikely that Ethiopia would risk straining this relationship, which has been built on mutual cooperation and strategic interests.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, both significant players in regional affairs, are not sympathetic to the idea of Somalia's fragmentation. They have historically been vocal advocates for Somali unity and would likely disapprove of any action that could lead to the country's further disintegration.


So it appears dear lad that Ethiopia's initial overtures towards Somaliland were merely a means of testing the waters, assessing the reaction of regional actors and gauging the potential risks and benefits involved so to be. With no tangible progress made towards an agreement, it is likely that Ethiopia will continue to maintain a cautious approach, avoiding any action that could destabilize the region or jeopardize its relationships with key partners. They might how ever keep the Notion of the MOU alive

Abiy Ahmed the galla prime minister has been astute in his maneuvering, leveraging the MOU to consolidate his power within Ethiopia and bolster his domestic standing. By touting himself as the visionary leader who will unlock Ethiopia's access to the sea, he is capitalizing on the country's deep-seated desire for maritime access and regional influence.

This snake called Abiye will continue to use the MOU as a bargaining chip, extracting concessions from Somalia and other regional actors while maintaining Ethiopia's dominance in the Horn of Africa. The true nature of Abiy's intentions is revealed in his reluctance to commit to specific timelines or concrete actions, leaving Somaliland and other stakeholders unsure of his genuine commitment to the agreement.


In a month or two September approaches, for the time being, it is probable that Ethiopia will continue to engage in protracted negotiations, using the MOU as a lever to extract concessions and reinforce its leverage over Somalia. I have to be honest in the first weeks of the MOU i was a bit worried but now i am not at all, things will go back to pre MOU days.


Dr Zackovich

[Jikaar]

Let's simplify the whole thing ,

Ethiopia: guys (djibouti , Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan , kenya) can I have a space Todo diving ?
The horn Africans,:, Hell no , fkkk off. You snake , you belong to the behind mountains, you are not supposed to swim let alone diving
Ethiopia: Oki


Somaliland : brothers ,(the same guys I mentioned above) you know I have the rights to retain my sovereignity please accept it. You have nothing to loose.

The horn Africans: please shut up and wait there and until Somalia is becoming a stable 2 thousand years later. Now leave and don't ask us that stupid question again. Understand ?

Somaliland : Oki.

Muse biixi : I have an Idea big brother , I give you a pool to swim and you just stand beside me when I am fighting against these bullies.

Abiy: jesus man , you are bold. they bullied me too. Thank you very much .

Egypt: joins the conversation
Turkey: I am here too
UAE:, ASSlamu alaykum
China : nii haw
Russia : privyet
USA:, what's going on here.

I would say somaliland and Ethiopia already tested their brothers and received a massive rejection. But those external forces have their own different agendas , if Ethiopia is hesitant , it's Because of those guys. Somaliland is bed with China's ex wife Taiwan. Imagine being so bold to even offend china. Egypt hates Ethiopia to the core. If Ethiopia has any eternal enemy it's Egypt. Renewable energy is the future. It's the only thing that can pull Ethiopia out of poverty.