Mereja.Forum

[Horus]

BECAUSE:

1. SOMALIA HAS HISTORICAL HOSTILITY WITH ETHIOPIA.

2. SOMALIA WILL FOR A LONG TIME BE A FAILED STATE & CHAOTIC.

3. THE SOMALIA PORT IS TOO FAR, UNDEVELOPED, & COSTLY.

4. IF ETHIOPIA ESTABLISHES BASE IN SOMALIA, WE WILL OWN THE AL-SHABAB PROBLEM & CHAOS. ETHIOPIA MUST STAY AWAY FROM SOMALIA PROBLEM.

5. ETHIOPIAN PORT & NAVY BASE WILL NEVER BE SAFE IN SOMALIA.

6. MOST PRACTICAL, LOGICAL, RATIONAL CHOICE FOR PORT & NAVY BASE IS SOMALILAND.

8. I TRULY TRULY ADMIRE THE CLEAR EYED PRESIDENT OF SOMALI KILLIL ሙስጠፌ ሙስጠፌ

[Noble Amhara]

If ethiopia maintained a good relation with Portugul in 1532 all of Zeyla up to Berbera and Djbouti would be ethiopian.the problem started when Fasilades rebelled against tje catholic faith thereby expelling Europeans from Gondar whoms arms were needed to make ethiopia a powerhouse during those times

What Abiy should have done is secretly make a deal to own a port in Zeyla without letting the public know. Bribing the Somaliland Government to hand over land and stay shuush so By operating in secrecy you outsmart the whole world.

The shouting gura and yelling is counterproductive

[Somaliman]

Charlatan Gurage monkey,

FYI, the breakaway region, also known as Somaliland, and Somalia are one country, whether we like it or not, and Somalia has no deal whatsoever for your fuc'king poverty-stricken shithole and its senseless moronic fuc'kers.

Our position is very clear and hasn't changed and remains the same. It's that we're willing to allow you to have access to the sea in the same way that other landlocked countries, such as Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia, etc are enjoying. If you're not happy with this, you're free to go fuc'k yourselves.



Make sure you don't get tired of your blah blah blah and, most of all, keep entertaining us.

[Horus]

If ethiopia maintained a good relation with Portugul in 1532 all of Zeyla up to Berbera and Djbouti would be ethiopian.the problem started when Fasilades rebelled against tje catholic faith thereby expelling Europeans from Gondar whoms arms were needed to make ethiopia a powerhouse during those times

What Abiy should have done is secretly make a deal to own a port in Zeyla without letting the public know. Bribing the Somaliland Government to hand over land and stay shuush so By operating in secrecy you outsmart the whole world.

The shouting gura and yelling is counterproductive

I agree. That is exactly what I said in January. But, one must ask why Abiy was so laud? Here are the reasons. Abiy had and stll has three motives for his moves- public support, psychological, and Ethiopian interest.

The primary motive for his sea access drive is to gain public support improve the image of his isolated regime. All government do the same. The move a policy to gain public support. So, Abiy had make a loud announcement to that effect.

The second driving motive for the noise was to create a psychological effect on various forces of HoA. Some folks call this testing the waters. Actually, this tactic worked. All of the open and hidden anti-Ethiopia and pro-MOU forces have shown their playing cards including Turkey, Egypt, Eritrea, Keneya, Djibouti, all of the Somali regional forces such as Adwal (Adal) and those inside Ethiopia. A totally confidential process would have overlooked these forces and barriers. Now Ethiopia knows what is ahead and will act accordingly.

The last is of course Ethiopian national interest for sea access. If this was Abiy's #1 motivation, he would have made it a policy 5 years ago. He raised it now precisely for the previous reason #1. That is rulers act. They mix self interest and national interest, but that is also how nations move forward.

Now, Ethiopia's quest for sea access in beyond Abiy or PP. It is an Ethiopian question. Now, even Abiy and PP cannot retreat from the question. A good example the clear stand of MusTefie of Somali killil.

[Somaliman]

If ethiopia maintained a good relation with Portugul in 1532 all of Zeyla up to Berbera and Djbouti would be ethiopian.the problem started when Fasilades rebelled against tje catholic faith thereby expelling Europeans from Gondar whoms arms were needed to make ethiopia a powerhouse during those times

What Abiy should have done is secretly make a deal to own a port in Zeyla without letting the public know. Bribing the Somaliland Government to hand over land and stay shuush so By operating in secrecy you outsmart the whole world.

The shouting gura and yelling is counterproductive

I agree. That is exactly what I said in January. But, one must ask why Abiy was so laud? Here are the reasons. Abiy had and stll has three motives for his moves- public support, psychological, and Ethiopian interest.

The primary motive for his sea access drive is to gain public support improve the image of his isolated regime. All government do the same. The move a policy to gain public support. So, Abiy had make a loud announcement to that effect.

The second driving motive for the noise was to create a psychological effect on various forces of HoA. Some folks call this testing the waters. Actually, this tactic worked. All of the open and hidden anti-Ethiopia and pro-MOU forces have shown their playing cards including Turkey, Egypt, Eritrea, Keneya, Djibouti, all of the Somali regional forces such as Adwal (Adal) and those inside Ethiopia. A totally confidential process would have overlooked these forces and barriers. Now Ethiopia knows what is ahead and will act accordingly.

The last is of course Ethiopian national interest for sea access. If this was Abiy's #1 motivation, he would have made it a policy 5 years ago. He raised it now precisely for the previous reason #1. That is rulers act. They mix self interest and national interest, but that is also how nations move forward.

Now, Ethiopia's quest for sea access in beyond Abiy or PP. It is an Ethiopian question. Now, even Abiy and PP cannot retreat from the question. A good example the clear stand of MusTefie of Somali killil.

[sun]

If ethiopia maintained a good relation with Portugul in 1532 all of Zeyla up to Berbera and Djbouti would be ethiopian.the problem started when Fasilades rebelled against tje catholic faith thereby expelling Europeans from Gondar whoms arms were needed to make ethiopia a powerhouse during those times

What Abiy should have done is secretly make a deal to own a port in Zeyla without letting the public know. Bribing the Somaliland Government to hand over land and stay shuush so By operating in secrecy you outsmart the whole world.

The shouting gura and yelling is counterproductive

That is only half truth. In fact the Portuguese tried to colonize Ethiopia at that point and own all of Zeyla up to Berbera and Djibouti. Yes under Portuguese colony Ethiopia would have owned those area by proxy. By then Portugal was one of the leading world powers with no question being asked.

[Somaliman]

Yeah, if Ethiopia had maintained a good relation with Jesus, the whole of Africa would have been Ethiopian today.

Daydreaming is usually about the present and future, but yours is so wild that it's even getting about the past - all this for something that doesn't belong to you!

Almighty God has decided to make your shithole landlocked and no amount of daydreaming would succeed to reverse this.

[Jikaar]

If ethiopia maintained a good relation with Portugul in 1532 all of Zeyla up to Berbera and Djbouti would be ethiopian.the problem started when Fasilades rebelled against tje catholic faith thereby expelling Europeans from Gondar whoms arms were needed to make ethiopia a powerhouse during those times

What Abiy should have done is secretly make a deal to own a port in Zeyla without letting the public know. Bribing the Somaliland Government to hand over land and stay shuush so By operating in secrecy you outsmart the whole world.

The shouting gura and yelling is counterproductive

How can you bribe us when you can't even afford 80 million joint venture trade agreement between you somaliland and the emaritis. You lost your share of berbera for just 80 million. It's sad to see 120 million peaple who can't afford 80 million. All Ethiopians are undiplomatic and broke. But atleast you are mostly submissive , it takes good leader to make you more productive. Democracy should be banned in Ethiopia.

[Horus]

Jikaar,
Sometimes you miss the complexities of Ethiopian ethnic politics and shifting alliances. You see at one point Tigrays and Eritrean were hoping to form a union and as a result TPLF wanted Ethiopia to be landlocked so that Tigre Tiggn could control the Red sea.

Then when Abiy came to power he was flirting with Eritreans in order to weaken FPLF 30 years long power structure. So may be Abiy was hoping to get Assab port.

So, it was not lack of 1 billion dollar but lack of clear policy and commitment what you saw regarding Berbera partnership. Even today Abiy is struggling to stay in power with some level of stability. Even today the novice Oromo ruling groups are not fully clear about their strategic well defined direction. A regime who doesn't want to share power is always a weak regime.

Remember, Ethiopia is so dynamic not because of its good government but because its strong rooted people. Ethiopia can exist without any government for a long time. Now, there is near national consensus on the sea access issue, it is only a matter of time.

[Jikaar]

Jikaar,
Sometimes you miss the complexities of Ethiopian ethnic politics and shifting alliances. You see at one point Tigrays and Eritrean were hoping to form a union and as a result TPLF wanted Ethiopia to be landlocked so that Tigre Tiggn could control the Red sea.

Then when Abiy came to power he was flirting with Eritreans in order to weaken FPLF 30 years long power structure. So may be Abiy was hoping to get Assab port.

So, it was not lack of 1 billion dollar but lack of clear policy and commitment what you saw regarding Berbera partnership. Even today Abiy is struggling to stay in power with some level of stability. Even today the novice Oromo ruling groups are not fully clear about their strategic well defined direction. A regime who doesn't want to share power is always a weak regime.

Remember, Ethiopia is so dynamic not because of its good government but because its strong rooted people. Ethiopia can exist without any government for a long time. Now, there is near national consensus on the sea access issue, it is only a matter of time.

Ethiopia is as failed as Somalia. The only difference it has a huge population who have no any where else to go. The biggest ethnic groups in Ethiopia have no alternative countries. And they are mostly sedentary society. In reality ethiopians hate conflicts and they are naturally peaceful peaple. I do agree with you they can survive without a government. The government extorts them. And take away their youth to fight unnecessary wars.

[Zack]

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has not been implemented primarily due to Ethiopia's hesitance. The separatists in Hargeisa would have promptly signed the agreement, but Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reservations. He finds himself in a precarious position, wary of the backlash from the Somali government. In essence, Abiy Ahmed is reluctant to provoke the Somali government further, given his waning influence within Somalia. If Somalia were to compel Ethiopia to withdraw completely, Abiy would lose whatever leverage he currently holds.

Regarding Somaliland, the separatists in Hargeisa seek international recognition, a notion Ethiopia initially entertained. However, Ethiopia quickly retracted this stance to avoid contentious issues with both Somalia and influential Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who oppose the fragmentation of Somalia. Abiy also hinted at Ethiopia's desire to join the Arab League, aiming to curry favor with Arab nations.

Additionally, Turkish involvement complicates matters. Turkey has been authorized by the Somali government to protect Somali waters. Should Ethiopian ships enter Somali waters, including those near Hargeisa, Turkey would intervene. Abiy has been leveraging the MOU to extract concessions from Djibouti and Somalia, particularly concerning port negotiations. There are talks scheduled for September if Ethiopia wanted the MOU go through they wouldnt hold talks with Somalia in september, but it appears Abiy is using the MOU as a bargaining chip, suggesting he might recognize Somaliland if Mogadishu or Djibouti fail to meet his terms. Nevertheless, he does not intend to follow through with such recognition.

Ultimately, Ethiopia cannot establish a naval base in Somali waters without violating international law, which Abiy cannot and will not circumvent. The MOU was essentially doomed from the start, and the separatists remain an integral part of Somalia. Thus, the aspiration for an independent state for the separatists remains unrealized.



Dr Zackovich

[Somaliman]

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has not been implemented primarily due to Ethiopia's hesitance. The separatists in Hargeisa would have promptly signed the agreement, but Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reservations. He finds himself in a precarious position, wary of the backlash from the Somali government. In essence, Abiy Ahmed is reluctant to provoke the Somali government further, given his waning influence within Somalia. If Somalia were to compel Ethiopia to withdraw completely, Abiy would lose whatever leverage he currently holds.

Regarding Somaliland, the separatists in Hargeisa seek international recognition, a notion Ethiopia initially entertained. However, Ethiopia quickly retracted this stance to avoid contentious issues with both Somalia and influential Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who oppose the fragmentation of Somalia. Abiy also hinted at Ethiopia's desire to join the Arab League, aiming to curry favor with Arab nations.

Additionally, Turkish involvement complicates matters. Turkey has been authorized by the Somali government to protect Somali waters. Should Ethiopian ships enter Somali waters, including those near Hargeisa, Turkey would intervene. Abiy has been leveraging the MOU to extract concessions from Djibouti and Somalia, particularly concerning port negotiations. There are talks scheduled for September if Ethiopia wanted the MOU go through they wouldnt hold talks with Somalia in september, but it appears Abiy is using the MOU as a bargaining chip, suggesting he might recognize Somaliland if Mogadishu or Djibouti fail to meet his terms. Nevertheless, he does not intend to follow through with such recognition.

Ultimately, Ethiopia cannot establish a naval base in Somali waters without violating international law, which Abiy cannot and will not circumvent. The MOU was essentially doomed from the start, and the separatists remain an integral part of Somalia. Thus, the aspiration for an independent state for the separatists remains unrealized.



Dr Zackovich

Brilliant fact-based analysis.

Abiy wants to use the MoU, as you've said it, as a bargaining chip, but this will never materialise his dream. A bargaining chip may work when the opposite camp with whom you're making a deal or an agreement with has certain advantages to gain from you. Somalia has nothing to gain from negotiating with Ethiopia on this matter.

As I said it right at the beginning, Abiy will be unlikely to retract from his stupid adventure, as this would amount to self-defeat in the eyes of everyone, including his own.

What's rather absurd and laughable is the short-sightedness of the mindless enclave that's banking on Ethiopia's recognition to produce a cumulative effect or domino effect.

[sesame]

Abiy is said to be heading to Port Sudan tomorrow. Is he fishing for a port?

[Somaliman]

The clown has made himself look more ridiculous over this fake MoU.

If he had balls he should have materialised his bravado of getting access to the sea by force, as by peace has failed to yield any positive results, and shouldn't have begged the Turks to facilitate a meeting with Somalia. Neither should have he waited till September to go back to Ankara to meet again Somalia, which is inflexible with regard to its territorial integrity of its ancestral lands.

[Jikaar]

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has not been implemented primarily due to Ethiopia's hesitance. The separatists in Hargeisa would have promptly signed the agreement, but Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reservations. He finds himself in a precarious position, wary of the backlash from the Somali government. In essence, Abiy Ahmed is reluctant to provoke the Somali government further, given his waning influence within Somalia. If Somalia were to compel Ethiopia to withdraw completely, Abiy would lose whatever leverage he currently holds.

Regarding Somaliland, the separatists in Hargeisa seek international recognition, a notion Ethiopia initially entertained. However, Ethiopia quickly retracted this stance to avoid contentious issues with both Somalia and influential Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who oppose the fragmentation of Somalia. Abiy also hinted at Ethiopia's desire to join the Arab League, aiming to curry favor with Arab nations.

Additionally, Turkish involvement complicates matters. Turkey has been authorized by the Somali government to protect Somali waters. Should Ethiopian ships enter Somali waters, including those near Hargeisa, Turkey would intervene. Abiy has been leveraging the MOU to extract concessions from Djibouti and Somalia, particularly concerning port negotiations. There are talks scheduled for September if Ethiopia wanted the MOU go through they wouldnt hold talks with Somalia in september, but it appears Abiy is using the MOU as a bargaining chip, suggesting he might recognize Somaliland if Mogadishu or Djibouti fail to meet his terms. Nevertheless, he does not intend to follow through with such recognition.

Ultimately, Ethiopia cannot establish a naval base in Somali waters without violating international law, which Abiy cannot and will not circumvent. The MOU was essentially doomed from the start, and the separatists remain an integral part of Somalia. Thus, the aspiration for an independent state for the separatists remains unrealized.



Dr Zackovich

Brilliant fact-based analysis.

Abiy wants to use the MoU, as you've said it, as a bargaining chip, but this will never materialise his dream. A bargaining chip may work when the opposite camp with whom you're making a deal or an agreement with has certain advantages to gain from you. Somalia has nothing to gain from negotiating with Ethiopia on this matter.

As I said it right at the beginning, Abiy will be unlikely to retract from his stupid adventure, as this would amount to self-defeat in the eyes of everyone, including his own.

What's rather absurd and laughable is the short-sightedness of the mindless enclave that's banking on Ethiopia's recognition to produce a cumulative effect or domino effect.

We played our cards well. For us the somalis are brothers and the Ethiopians are cousins. Most humans are More comfortable with their cousins. A good example is Eritreans love Somalia but hate Ethiopia. So do we. We trust Ethiopia more than the Somalians and djiboutians.

[ittuabafarda]

I got a live one for you folks. I am now urging the leaders of Africa to permanently relocate the AU headquarter from Addis/Finfinne. I have two best choices for them.

1) Mogadishu - The recent extensive study done by other organization has rated this city to be the most people secured and peaceful city in the world. You can hear a pin drop there now. My number one expert in the affairs of the Horn of Africa, Af-Mishaar, told me that residents in that feel so secure that they leave their doors open when they go to sleep. Mogadishu beach is now rivaling Miami Beach.

2) Asmara - The research group I created just returned from a month long trip to that city. The original plan was for only one week stay but the city was so attractive that they forgot about their overstaying. Italian tourists who come for a visit fall in love with that city so much that they don’t want to leave. That is why Italians are the most deported foreigners from that country in the history of tourism.

I will announce their choice today at half a minute after midnight.so stay tuned. Otherwise, if you miss it you will never hear about it.

I had Al-Qahirah(Cairo) as another choice for them but that is a long story.

[Right]

In Mogadishu Al Shebab will perform target shooting practice on AU diplomats and staff.

In Asmara they will house them in a shipping containers with no toilets.

[Horus]

Zack,
It is hard to follow your logic. Remember, 6 months ago there was a joke going around about the location of Ethiopian Navy! Eritreans were suggesting Lake Langano or lake Awasa!!!

Today, the whole world is talking about best and optimal Ethiopian port and sea access choices - (1) Djibouti, (2) Adwal/Zeyela, (3) Lughaya, (4) Berbera, (5) Hobiyo, (6) Lamu, (7) port Sudan, (8) Assab !!!!!

You Eritreans can cut and past as many fotoshop images as you wish, Ethiopia has put her national question of access to the Red Sea on an irreversible trajectory.

As for Somaliland, its independence is entirely separate from Ethiopian needs. SLR will be a free nation be it with Ethiopian recognition or other countries recognition.

Why Ethiopia is hesitant is precisely because it does not want to win the battle and lose the war. It want to secure its critical diplomatic position in HoA, bring certain critical influential powers on board and make intelligent moves. In short Ethiopia is self-correcting her January hasty moves.

That being said as we speak, there two winners in this game Somalland and Ethiopia - both have internationalized their issues and made their demands a global agenda!

[Somaliman]

Zack,
It is hard to follow your logic. Remember, 6 months ago there was a joke going around about the location of Ethiopian Navy! Eritreans were suggesting Lake Langano or lake Awasa!!!

Today, the whole world is talking about best and optimal Ethiopian port and sea access choices - (1) Djibouti, (2) Adwal/Zeyela, (3) Lughaya, (4) Berbera, (5) Hobiyo, (6) Lamu, (7) port Sudan, (8) Assab !!!!!

You Eritreans can cut and past as many fotoshop images as you wish, Ethiopia has put her national question of access to the Red Sea on an irreversible trajectory.

As for Somaliland, its independence is entirely separate from Ethiopian needs. SLR will be a free nation be it with Ethiopian recognition or other countries recognition.

Why Ethiopia is hesitant is precisely because it does not want to win the battle and lose the war. It want to secure its critical diplomatic position in HoA, bring certain critical influential powers on board and make intelligent moves. In short Ethiopia is self-correcting her January hasty moves.

That being said as we speak, there two winners in this game Somalland and Ethiopia - both have internationalized their issues and made their demands a global agenda!

Yeah, you're right, there are crowds of people protesting in every corner in the world in support of your demands and MoU.

[Dark Energy]

ጫት Smoking kiosk bounded dirty oldie Guragie, old Horsee out of control. Ethiopia is a country about to demolish itself and he talks about stealing ports of other sovereign countries. Guragie man, save your people from angry amharas and Oromos. You can’t afford to have two masters in the form of Amharas and Oromos who hate each others guts. , Forget about owning ports. The UN upholds the sovereignty principle to the core.,your dirty Barya behind does not matter at all.