Mereja.Forum

[Horus]

[Somaliman]

As I've said it numerous times, Ethiopia and the mindless breakaway region of Somalia can turn their fake MoU into an agreement and Ethiopia can recognise the enclave in question as an independent country, even though this won't change the current states of the region at all. No problem.

What we want to see is Ethiopia going into Somalia and starting building its daydreamed naval base.

I haven't bothered to click the video, as I don't speak such an ugly and awful language.

[Somaliman]

Is your fuc'king breaking news all about that Ethiopia hasn't cancelled the fake MoU and that the news in the social media which claimed that Ethiopia had cancelled it is fake news?

[Zack]

I do not believe that Ethiopia is genuinely interested in pursuing this course of action. Their relationship with Somalia has deteriorated due to this Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and despite nearly seven months having passed, there has been no tangible progress. Had they been earnest, the deal would have been implemented long ago. However, I suspect there are other factors at play of which we are unaware.

It appears that Ethiopia is merely testing the waters to determine its capabilities and limitations. They are undoubtedly aware that Somalia has signed an agreement with Turkey, and any attempt by Ethiopia to assert control over Somali territory would directly provoke a conflict. The Turkish warships have been granted full authority by the Somali government to protect Somali waters, both in the north and the south. Thus, it seems impossible for Ethiopia to advance without triggering a full-scale confrontation. We must wait and see how this situation unfolds, as it remains uncertain what actions both sides will undertake Indeed.


Dr Zackovich

[Somaliman]

I do not believe that Ethiopia is genuinely interested in pursuing this course of action. Their relationship with Somalia has deteriorated due to this Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and despite nearly seven months having passed, there has been no tangible progress. Had they been earnest, the deal would have been implemented long ago. However, I suspect there are other factors at play of which we are unaware.

It appears that Ethiopia is merely testing the waters to determine its capabilities and limitations. They are undoubtedly aware that Somalia has signed an agreement with Turkey, and any attempt by Ethiopia to assert control over Somali territory would directly provoke a conflict. The Turkish warships have been granted full authority by the Somali government to protect Somali waters, both in the north and the south. Thus, it seems impossible for Ethiopia to advance without triggering a full-scale confrontation. We must wait and see how this situation unfolds, as it remains uncertain what actions both sides will undertake Indeed.


Dr Zackovich

I said right at the beginning that this MoU was all about testing the waters and distracting Ethiopians from their current pressing issues in the country - and nothing else

[Odie]

No body cares about MoU! Not me!
I see Some one is really sicker than the bipolar PM on this MoU. Not even PP cadres cry about this much lol! ይሄ የኦሮሙማ ፍየልን ጩኸት መቀማት ነው!!
Every body save mentioning or insulting Gurage on this. Direct your criticism to the fake MoU victim not to naming some one is doing this bs he is gurage.
One gurage here but with quite different view on this.
I ask Horus and Dana/Doma not to post stuff in the name of gurage (which is to big a group )and pull an insult for the whole clan!

[Horus]

As we say in cognitive science, Somaliman is simply trying to confirm his own perceptual prediction on the issue. No, my friend, Ethiopia didn't go through 6 months of diplomatic chaos and drama just to test the waters. So, you need to revisit/revise your predictive process.

On the other hand, Zack's opinion is more nuanced. Yes, there are many other variables that need to align for the MOU to achieve its intended purpose. The mere signing of it is not the ultimate purpose. For instance, (1)the government needs to find a solution to the war in Amara before it moves into Somaliland for the obvious reason that it should be in a state of military readiness along Ethio-Somalia border should a war breaks out. (2) the government needs to take certain key external powers on board prior to its move into Somaliland, primarily USA & Turkey. (3) the government needs to find financial sources for building a navy force and a country that is willing to provide the technical know how in building the naval force.

Folks on ER think that the Abiy regime is a diplomatic idiot. Not true. Consider what Ruto did & compare that to IMF's demand for the devaluation of the Birr. Abiy refused to follow IMF's advise precisely not to repeat Ruto's folly. Imagine how happy and self-vindicatd they feel by Ruto's crisis. Any single trigger can ignite a social revolution in any one the HoA countries.

But, the MOU is such an existential purpose for Abiy's regime as well as Somaliland most cherished desire, it is only a matter of time. I have always maintained that Ethiopia must achieve relative internal peace and cohesion before it fully confronts Ethiopia's quest for a maritime status. ሞት ቢዘገይ የቀረ ይመስላታ! የኢትዮጵያ ቀይ ባህራዊነት እንደ የማይቀረው ሞት ነው ።

[Jikaar]

Somaliland already played it's cards well,

Ethiopia is nervous
Djibouti is worried
Somalia is angry
Eritrea is even More angry

We deliberately did every thing on purpose. Either Ethiopia will take the risk with us , or Somalia and it's little djibouti/Eritrea sisters will meet our demands. There is no grey area. And we have nothing to loose eitherways. We actually prefer to keep spinning the drama for little more , until we are electing new government with new mandate.