Mereja.Forum

[Horus]

1. The nationhood of Somaliland Republic is inevitable.
2. The Ethio-Somailand agreement is just beginning - it is more about the deal between the 2 countries than the noise of Somalia
3. The drama in Somalia is more about imperial scramble for Somalia than stopping Somaliland's independence
4. The shortest path for SLP is to be recognized by another country and make a deal with Ethiopia after that
5. Ethiopia cannot recognize SLP until it is sure of building a navy base & secure a country helping building the navy
6. Abiy regime itself at the cliff of collapse is not in any position to play this complex game to success
6. So all in all, everything will change and shift

THE REAL GAME HAS JUST BEGUN

[Horus]

[Horus]

[Right]

Ethiopia should not tied up itself with this secretive deal. It needs broader scrutiny and public review. Abiye Ahmed Ali is not the right person to make the deal.
At this point we are happy the option is out there.we will come back to it when the nation is under the right leadership.

[Wordpad]

Horus you Gurage donkey. I told you many times that politics is not for you. Your job is to sell your mother and sisters.

[Right]

W,
You are at pain. Barking at the wrong tree will not take you anywhere. Ethiopia will not consider using the disputed of Afar ports until the area is demilitarized.
We are talking about a decade or two.

[Horus]

Right,
Let me be honest with you. I have never, never been sure or confident that Abiy would materialize this deal. To begin with Oromuma raised it for propaganda purpose -to appear as Ethiopian nationalist and counter Fano's narrative. That answses the why now question. Oromos were losing the Ethiopian brand and this MOU is part of the other Menelik drama etc.

But actors produce unintended consequences - Abiy's move has brought Ethiopia's eternal need for sea access and a navy force to be one of the critical issues of Ethiopian national conversation. That was my main interest.

Moreover, I honestly believed that the Oromuma regime by failing to actualize the deal will eventually expose its weakness, unpopularity and isolation. This is now a fact. If this deal was made by a popular Ethiopian government, it would have been signed on Feburary 1.

ለ3 አመት ኦሮሞ አገር መምራት አይችልም ያልነው ለዚህ ነው ።

It is possible this retreat by Abiy may be connected to the upcoming IMF/WB visit to Addis. Abiy is dying to get some $$.

As for those of us who want to see this regime go, a lot of good will come out this Oromuma fiasco. The basic lesson - you can not rule by war and injustice internally and succeed diplomatically with foreign powers. So this failure will translate into a further weakening of the neofascist Oromo regime.

ኦሮሙማ ልኳን አይታለች!

This drama has also clearly shown who Ethiopia's historical enemies are, which country wishes Ethiopia well and which one's are ready to attack and betray her at moment's notice.

All said, Ethiopia's quest for sea access and a navy power can only grow and become one of the central questions of Ethiopian politics. That itself is a great achievement for now.

[Horus]

Right,
ሌላው ምን መሰለህ? ፈረንሳይ የኢትዮጵያ ባህር ኃይል መገምባቱ ላይ ሃሳቧን እየለወጠች ነው ተብሏል ። ለዚህ ነው አበሾች ሌላ አገር እየፈለጉ ያሉት ፟ ለምሳሌ ፓኪስታን። ይህ ማለት ኔቪ ለማቋቋም የሚችሉ ካልሆነ አቢይ ቸኩሎ ሱማሌላንድን ማወቁ ከንቱ ነው ። ኢትዮጵያ አንዴ ሱማሌላንድን እንደ አገር ካወቀች አበቃ ከዚያ በኋላ እውቅናዋን ማንሳት አትችልም ። ማለትም ከዚያ በኋላ ሱማሌላንድ የመደራደር ኃይሏ እጅግ ከፍተኛ ስለሚሆን የጦር ወደ አልሰጥም ማለት ሁሉ ትችላለች ። ስለሆነም ትክክለኛው የድርድሩ ቅደም ተከተል ኢትዮጵያ ጦር ሰፈር ይዛ ኃሏን ካሰፈረች ማግስት ነው እውቅናዋን የምታውጀው ። ስለዚህ ነገሩን ያራዘመው የውጭ ኃይሎች ተቃውሞ ቢመስልም እውነተኛ ሁኔታ ግን የኢትዮጵያ ኔቪ አሰልጣኝና ደጋት ማጣት ይመስለኛ ።

[Selam/]

እኔ እኮ ሆረስና አበረ ልታፈራርሙ ወደ በርበራ የዛሬ ሳምንት የሄዳችሁ መስሎኝ ነበር!

ስምምንቱ ይሰረዛል ያላችሁ ተሳስታችኋል፤ ስምምንቱ የመጨረሻ ረቂቁ አልቆ ለፊርማ ተቃርቧል ። ይህ ፋክት ለመሆኑ ሳጂድ የሚባለው ፓኪስታናዊ ሪፖርት አድርጓል ።

[Horus]

እኔ እኮ ሆረስና አበረ ልታፈራርሙ ወደ በርበራ የዛሬ ሳምንት የሄዳችሁ መስሎኝ ነበር!

ስምምንቱ ይሰረዛል ያላችሁ ተሳስታችኋል፤ ስምምንቱ የመጨረሻ ረቂቁ አልቆ ለፊርማ ተቃርቧል ። ይህ ፋክት ለመሆኑ ሳጂድ የሚባለው ፓኪስታናዊ ሪፖርት አድርጓል ።

እኔና አንተ አለምን ባንድ ስለማያይ ከሌሎች ጋር ተነታረክ! እኔን ተወኝ በቃ! ያሽኝን ማለት እችላለሁ

[Horus]

This is exactly what I have been saying. This is the kind of move that will succeed.

[Right]

All said, Ethiopia's quest for sea access and a navy power can only grow and become one of the central questions of Ethiopian politics. That itself is a great achievement for now.

Horus, I agreed in everything you said above but the last paragraph summed it all.
Your main analysis also touched good points.
- Abiye Ahmed Ali is not trustworthy
- Ethiopia’s access to the Sea has gain momentum and those mini states who has been envisioned their survival by blackmailing her are rattled and fully exposed.
- access to the sea and a navy base is a must. It is a matter of time.

One more thing I have to add is that the competing mini states will have to do the following to work with Ethiopia and survive: demilitarize like Somali Land did.

[Horus]

All said, Ethiopia's quest for sea access and a navy power can only grow and become one of the central questions of Ethiopian politics. That itself is a great achievement for now.

Horus, I agreed in everything you said above but the last paragraph summed it all.
Your main analysis also touched good points.
- Abiye Ahmed Ali is not trustworthy
- Ethiopia’s access to the Sea has gain momentum and those mini states who has been envisioned their survival by blackmailing her are rattled and fully exposed.
- access to the sea and a navy base is a must. It is a matter of time.

One more thing I have to add is that the competing mini states will have to do the following to work with Ethiopia and survive: demilitarize like Somali Land did.

When this issue began Abere & I argued that the recognition of SLP and the port issues should have been separated. In other words, if Abiy simply recognized SLP without any land deal, Somalia would not have a case. Then after SLP joins the UN Ethiopia could have made the other deals. Of course why this did not happen is that then SLP would have less motivation to grant a land lease. I am not even sure of how much trust exist between Abiy and his SLP counterpart. It a game theory of national interests.

Now it seems that Ethiopia & SLP will engage in economic give and take and slowly work for SLP recognition which was a practical approach to begin with.

Which ever way Ethiopia has nothing to lose. The mini states will have and must recognize Ethiopia's vital need and interest in securing multiple commercial ports and her Navy Force.

[Abere]

What is unfolding in reality is the miscarriage of Italy's colony of Somalia and Eritrea as a country. These Italian colonies have been on life support for more than 3 decades ;and none of them could stand on their feet's - economically and politically paralyzed. On the other hand, the demographic and economic dynamism of Ethiopia ( population wise, the 13th world largest country) lodged logical and valid case - impossible to stop. I think the MoU is technically here to stay and is a torpedo that removes the colonial myth and obstacle faced by ordinary citizens both in Ethiopia and Somaliland.

There is no question, Somaliland is an independent nation. Somalia, an Italy colony, cannot adopt Somaliland , British colony. The ultimate power rests in the people Somaliland not in another power.

[Fiyameta]

What is unfolding in reality is the miscarriage of Italy's colony of Somalia and Eritrea as a country. These Italian colonies have been on life support for more than 3 decades ;and none of them could stand on their feet's - economically and politically paralyzed. On the other hand, the demographic and economic dynamism of Ethiopia ( population wise, the 13th world largest country) lodged logical and valid case - impossible to stop. I think the MoU is technically here to stay and is a torpedo that removes the colonial myth and obstacle faced by ordinary citizens both in Ethiopia and Somaliland.

There is no question, Somaliland is an independent nation. Somalia, an Italy colony, cannot adopt Somaliland , British colony. The ultimate power rests in the people Somaliland not in another power.

You agame are not very smart.

[Horus]

አበረ፣
የሚገርምኮ ነው ! ሱማሊያ ኢትዮጵያን የጎዳች መስሏት በቅጽበት ውስጥ የጥርሳሙ ቱርክ ኢምፓየር መንጋጋ ውስጥ ጥርቅም ብላ ገባች ። ጥፋቷን ውሎ ሲያድር ነው የሚገባት ። ኤርትራማ አሁን ዋና ትግሏ ካሜሪካና ያውሮፓ አንድነት ጋር ሆኖዋል። ኢትዮጵያ አለ መሪ እምኳን ይህው ለኬኒያ የምትሸጠው ኤሌክትሪክ በእጥፍ አድርጋ ተመሳሳይ ስምምነት ክታንዛኒያ ጋር ፈረመች ። ሱዳን እንኳ 70 ሚሊዮን ዶላር የአሌክትሪክ ዋጋ መክፈል አቅቷት ኢትዮጵያ ታግሳ አለች ። ይህ ሁሉ የሚሆነው በሁለት ተርባይን በተመረተ ኮሬንቲ ነው። ሱማሌላንድም ብትሆን ውሃና ኤለክትሪክ በሰፊው መፈልጓ አይቀርም ። ለዘይት ለዘት ሱማሌላንድ ይኖራታል ። ስለዚህ ጨዋታው ገና መጀመሩ ነው ። ይህው አሁን ባለው መረጃ እንኳ ኢትዮጵያ 3 የወደብ አማራጮች አሏት ፟ ጂቡቲ ፣ በርበራና ላሞ ኬኒያ! ከዚህ በኋላ አሰብ በቅናሽ! መቅረብ ይኖርባታል!!

[Jikaar]

Remember no recognition no Naval base. Our policy is very clear.

[Selam/]

ምን አጠፋሁ፣ ያልከውን ነው የደገምኩት?

አሁን የሚታየው የወደቡ ግርግርም በስተመጨረሻ፣ እኔ ወደ ገመትኩት አቅጣጫ ቀረበ እንጂ አልራቀም። አብይ ስንኩል ነው፣ አሁን እየሄድበት ያለው antagonistic የውጭ ግንኙነት፣ የሃገር ውስጡ የፖለቲካ ደዌ ነፀብራቅ ነው፣ ለማንም አይጠቅምም ነው ያልኩት።

እናንተ የሃገር ተቆርቋሪዎቹና የፖለቲካ ተንታኞቹ ግን ይባስ ብላችሁ፣ ፋኖ የመንደር ቁርንቁሱን ወደጎን አስቀምጦ የአብይን የወደብ ፖለቲካ ካልደገፈ ሞተን እንገኛለን አላችሁ። ምን በወጣቸው ነው፣ በድሮን እየተደበደቡ ይኸን መላ ቅጡ የጠፋበት ወፈፌ የሚደግፉት። ሙሉ ጤንነት ያለው ሰው ይኸንን ከአንዱ ወደብ ወደ ሌላው ወደብ በቅፅበት የሚዋዥቅን ዕብድ ሰው ከቁም ነገር ሊቆጥረው አይገባም። ኢትዮጵያ ያለ ምንም ጠብና ማጭበርበር፣ በዲፕሎማሲያዊ አሰራር ብቻ ወደብ ሳይሆን ወደቦች ማግኘት ትችላለች። ካለ ኢትዮጵያ ተሳትፎ ደግሞ፣ ሱዳንም፣ ኤርትራም፣ ጅቡቲም፣ ሶማሊያም፣ ኬንያም sunset እያዩ ክው ብለው ጦማቸውን ነው የሚያድሩት።

እኔ እኮ ሆረስና አበረ ልታፈራርሙ ወደ በርበራ የዛሬ ሳምንት የሄዳችሁ መስሎኝ ነበር!

ስምምንቱ ይሰረዛል ያላችሁ ተሳስታችኋል፤ ስምምንቱ የመጨረሻ ረቂቁ አልቆ ለፊርማ ተቃርቧል ። ይህ ፋክት ለመሆኑ ሳጂድ የሚባለው ፓኪስታናዊ ሪፖርት አድርጓል ።

እኔና አንተ አለምን ባንድ ስለማያይ ከሌሎች ጋር ተነታረክ! እኔን ተወኝ በቃ! ያሽኝን ማለት እችላለሁ

[Right]

ከዚህ በኋላ አሰብ በቅናሽ! መቅረብ ይኖርባታል

Ethiopia should stay away from Asseb until Eritrea demilitarizes. Otherwise what ever pennies they will get from Ethiopia, the Eritreans will definitely buy weapons and terrorize the region. It is a no brainer. Shut them off indefinitely until they realize war and confrontations are for stupids.

[Horus]

ከዚህ በኋላ አሰብ በቅናሽ! መቅረብ ይኖርባታል

Ethiopia should stay away from Asseb until Eritrea demilitarizes. Otherwise what ever pennies they will get from Ethiopia, the Eritreans will definitely buy weapons and terrorize the region. It is a no brainer. Shut them off indefinitely until they realize war and confrontations are for stupids.

እኔ ቀልዴን ነው ስለ አሰብ ያነሳሁት! አሰብ ወደ ባለቤቱ ወደ አፋር መመለስ ነው ያለበት ። የሚገርም ነው አንድ ሰው ስለ አፍሪካ አገሮች ጂዲፒ ለጥፏል ። ኤርትራ ጂዲፒ የላትም ምናልባት የስታትስቲክስ ድርጅት ማቆም አልቻለችም ። በዛሬው አለም ቋንቋ ኤርትራ ማለት የሰፈር ጉሊት መሆኑ ነው