Mereja.Forum

[Revelations]

An Ethiopian port will likely strengthen the UAE’s position in its regional rivalry with other Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, due to its strong ties with the Ethiopian government. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have increasingly competed for economic dominance over the Horn of Africa and vital waterways off its coast since 2021.[57] The Ethiopia-Somaliland deal creates another potential Emirati client port given that the UAE is a prominent backer of Abiy’s Ethiopian government and previously tried to help Ethiopia secure a stake in the Emirati-owned port in Berbera in 2019.[58] The Saudis have been wary of the Abiy government due to its UAE backing and created a Council of Arab and African littoral states on the Red Sea in 2020 that notably excluded both Ethiopia and the UAE.[59]

The UAE and Saudi Arabia led a coalition that unsuccessfully attempted to economically and politically isolate Qatar in 2017 for its alleged support for terrorism and political Islam movements that Emirati and Saudi leaders viewed as a threat to their power and stability.[60] Qatar responded by increasing ties with other countries, including states in the Horn of Africa, to offset the economic and political pressure.[61] The UAE and Saudi Arabia formally abandoned their efforts in 2021 and have been slowly mending relations since, which has created space for a growing Emirati-Saudi rivalry as both countries compete to establish themselves as global logistics and trade nodes via Red Sea ports along vital global shipping lanes.[62] This has led both countries to pursue divergent approaches on issues such as the Sudanese and Yemeni civil wars.[63]

The UAE has been a steadfast supporter of Abiy since he took power in 2018. The UAE helped broker the 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea that won Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize and provided extensive military support throughout the Tigray war by establishing an air bridge.[64] The UAE also brokered a deal for partial Ethiopian ownership of its Berbera port in 2019, but the deal fell through in 2022 after Ethiopia failed to make necessary payments.[65]

[Revelations]

[Dark Energy]

In other words, Ethiopia has become the Emirates new colony. The Emirates love to play with fire. The problem with that is, the fire is consuming its very own slaves. Hemedti and the scumbag street thief named Abbiy.

[Zack]

Ethiopia wont ever have a sea out let not via this mou and certainly not by force as the amhara used to think ,, and the galla to some extend this is also not going to work for the ethiopians


dr zackovich

[Abere]

Why would Ethiopia sacrifice her national interest for a propaganda stunt of "Africa counterterrorism". First thing first, Ethiopia has to put her national interest and the rest second or last. Ethiopia is not the #1 responsible country in Africa and the world to babysit Somalia by protecting from Al Shabab. Al Shabab has nothing to do with Somaliland, it is a separate issue. People who are crying foul today may ask Ethiopia to babysit Egypt by protecting her from Muslim brotherhood.

[Revelations]

The rupture of Somali-Ethiopian relations would weaken regional counterterrorism cooperation. Somalia cutting diplomatic ties with Ethiopia would almost certainly affect the continued legal presence of Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia, which are fighting the al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab.[23] Ethiopia currently has at least 4,000 troops deployed in Somalia as part of the AU Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and another 1,000 soldiers deployed as part of bilateral agreements with Somalia.[24] Ethiopian forces comprise between a quarter and a third of the 14,000-strong ATMIS force and are responsible for sectors in central and southwestern Somalia that border Ethiopia.[25] ATMIS is undergoing a multiphase drawdown to withdraw entirely by the end of 2024, but it remains crucial to bolstering the SFG’s capacity as Somali forces increase their size and clear al Shabaab from contested areas of the country in preparation for the SFG assuming responsibility for its own security.[26]

An Ethiopian withdrawal would also significantly complicate the SFG’s plans to clear al Shabaab’s main havens in southern Somalia by the end of 2024, given it has courted Ethiopian support for the offensive.[27] At least 1,000 non-ATMIS Ethiopian troops deployed to Somalia in mid-2023 at the SFG’s behest to supplement a planned offensive against al Shabaab’s primary leadership and governance havens in southern Somalia.[28] Several political and operational challenges have so far prevented any such offensive, but the Somali president insisted in December that operations would begin soon and be completed before the ATMIS withdrawal at the end of 2024.[29]

Al Shabaab will likely increase its attacks against Ethiopian forces in the Horn of Africa to capitalize on anti-Ethiopian sentiment among Somalis to boost funding and recruitment. The Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal prompted an anti-Ethiopian backlash in southern Somalia.[30] Al Shabaab has historically capitalized on anti-Ethiopian sentiment to boost support among the Somali population across the Horn of Africa.[31] The Somali president and head of the Arab League separately warned that Ethiopia’s move would fuel a dangerous rise in extremism.[32]

Al Shabaab’s spokesperson spoke out against the agreement as “invalid” on January 2 and threatened to retaliate.[33] Al Shabaab regularly attacks AU forces in Somalia and carried out two suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attacks against Ethiopian positions in southwestern Somalia in June 2023.[34] Al Shabaab also has the capability to carry out attacks inside Ethiopia. Al Shabaab last launched a major incursion into Ethiopia in the summer of 2022, and nearly 500 surviving militants established a rear base in the Bale Mountains along Ethiopia’s southeastern border with Kenya.[35]

Al Shabaab brands Ethiopia as Somali Muslims’ archenemy and has historically advanced a pan-Somali narrative rooted in anti-Ethiopian sentiment to boost recruiting and funding support among the Somali population spread across the Horn of Africa.[36] This rhetoric frames Ethiopia as a foreign, Christian occupier in ethnically Somali lands that seeks to “enslave Somalia, revive an Ethiopian empire, and control Somalia’s seaports.”[37] This narrative played a significant part in al Shabaab’s initial rise after the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006 that led to al Shabaab nearly toppling the internationally recognized government before the AU intervention in 2011.[38] The al Shabaab spokesperson’s statement on January 2 reiterated this framing and called on Somalis to “take up arms to wage jihad” against Ethiopia.[39] The spokesperson also compared Ethiopia to Israel and warned that Ethiopia will continue to encroach on Somalia the same way Israel has “occupied the land of Palestine.”[40]

Al Shabaab launched a massive offensive involving at least 2,000 fighters into Ethiopia in July 2022.[41] It was the group’s first attack along the Ethiopian border since at least 2016.[42] Ethiopian forces reestablished control of the Ethiopian border after two weeks, but local and diplomatic sources said the attack’s primary aim was to enable several hundred militants to infiltrate Ethiopia and set up a base in the Bale Mountains near Ethiopia’s southeastern border with Kenya.[43] Initial estimates in September 2022 said that at least 100 fighters reached the mountains, but more recent sources in September 2023 say that roughly 500 fighters are in the area.[44] Al Shabaab also regularly attacks Ethiopian forces in Somalia and carried out two SVBIED attacks against Ethiopian positions in southwestern Somalia in June 2023 for the first time since its 2022 offensive.[45]

Al Shabaab has not claimed any attacks in Ethiopia since mid-2022 to maintain the enclave’s operational security.[46] It is unclear if al Shabaab views the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal as either a significant enough threat to its legitimacy as a defender of Somali sovereignty or a significant enough opportunity to gain support that it would change this calculus.

[DefendTheTruth]

Revelations.

I just stumbled myself across this post and instantly noted that there is no mention of UK in the list, a country that you were also similarly busy to recycle its stand on here and which you claimed opposed to the MoU between ET and SL.

That means you have that short memory and still dare to recycle all garbages on behalf of your employers?

[Jikaar]

Ethiopia, somaliland , RSF , south Yemen and Emirates are in the same side. UAE are the most progressive Arab nation. Very good business partners. Unlike Qatar who exports terrorism , the UAE are builders.

[Revelations]

Revelations.

I just stumbled myself across this post and instantly noted that there is no mention of UK in the list, a country that you were also similarly busy to recycle its stand on here and which you claimed opposed to the MoU between ET and SL.

That means you have that short memory and still dare to recycle all garbages on behalf of your employers?

Stop your daydreaming or hallucinations. Just because the above article didn't include it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

https://x.com/UKinSomalia/status/174300 ... 39769?s=20

[ZEMEN]

Ethiopia, somaliland , RSF , south Yemen and Emirates are in the same side. UAE are the most progressive Arab nation. Very good business partners. Unlike Qatar who exports terrorism , the UAE are builders.

I guess you don't know UAE. They are savages. They strive on war and destabilizing countries, especially Africa. Yes, they help not Ethiopia, but Abiy and Abiy is just a prostitute, you pay him he will bend, and UAE are bending him all the way to his knee.

[Revelations]

Revelations.

I just stumbled myself across this post and instantly noted that there is no mention of UK in the list, a country that you were also similarly busy to recycle its stand on here and which you claimed opposed to the MoU between ET and SL.

That means you have that short memory and still dare to recycle all garbages on behalf of your employers?

Stop your daydreaming or hallucinations. Just because the UK statement was not included in the above article's compilations doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

@UKinSomalia

The UK is concerned by escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa.

We reaffirm our full respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

We urge restraint and dialogue to peacefully resolve issues.
12:10 PM · Jan 4, 2024
·
327.8K Views

https://x.com/UKinSomalia/status/174300 ... 39769?s=20

[Horus]

Why would Ethiopia sacrifice her national interest for a propaganda stunt of "Africa counterterrorism". First thing first, Ethiopia has to put her national interest and the rest second or last. Ethiopia is not the #1 responsible country in Africa and the world to babysit Somalia by protecting from Al Shabab. Al Shabab has nothing to do with Somaliland, it is a separate issue. People who are crying foul today may ask Ethiopia to babysit Egypt by protecting her from Muslim brotherhood.

Abere,
Thank you. Somalia a failed entity that doesn't have a single tank leave alone a jet to its name beats Egypt's war drum, a war drum that has nothing to do with Somaliland ports but that has everything to do with the Ethiopian GERD. Egypt is turning Somalia into a toy. Yes, let Somalia fight its Al Shabab war. We will worry when Shabab touches Ethiopia.

[Revelations]

An Ethiopian port will likely strengthen the UAE’s position in its regional rivalry with other Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, due to its strong ties with the Ethiopian government. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have increasingly competed for economic dominance over the Horn of Africa and vital waterways off its coast since 2021.[57] The Ethiopia-Somaliland deal creates another potential Emirati client port given that the UAE is a prominent backer of Abiy’s Ethiopian government and previously tried to help Ethiopia secure a stake in the Emirati-owned port in Berbera in 2019.[58] The Saudis have been wary of the Abiy government due to its UAE backing and created a Council of Arab and African littoral states on the Red Sea in 2020 that notably excluded both Ethiopia and the UAE.[59]

The UAE and Saudi Arabia led a coalition that unsuccessfully attempted to economically and politically isolate Qatar in 2017 for its alleged support for terrorism and political Islam movements that Emirati and Saudi leaders viewed as a threat to their power and stability.[60] Qatar responded by increasing ties with other countries, including states in the Horn of Africa, to offset the economic and political pressure.[61] The UAE and Saudi Arabia formally abandoned their efforts in 2021 and have been slowly mending relations since, which has created space for a growing Emirati-Saudi rivalry as both countries compete to establish themselves as global logistics and trade nodes via Red Sea ports along vital global shipping lanes.[62] This has led both countries to pursue divergent approaches on issues such as the Sudanese and Yemeni civil wars.[63]
The UAE has been a steadfast supporter of Abiy since he took power in 2018. The UAE helped broker the 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea that won Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize and provided extensive military support throughout the Tigray war by establishing an air bridge.[64] The UAE also brokered a deal for partial Ethiopian ownership of its Berbera port in 2019, but the deal fell through in 2022 after Ethiopia failed to make necessary payments.[65]

[DefendTheTruth]

Revelations.

I just stumbled myself across this post and instantly noted that there is no mention of UK in the list, a country that you were also similarly busy to recycle its stand on here and which you claimed opposed to the MoU between ET and SL.

That means you have that short memory and still dare to recycle all garbages on behalf of your employers?

Stop your daydreaming or hallucinations. Just because the above article didn't include it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

https://x.com/UKinSomalia/status/174300 ... 39769?s=20

I will stop my daydreaming, of course. But those with real daydreaming can have their days instead, in which they can keep dreaming a nation's fate will be decided on by pile of meaningless "statements".

Can you link the original links of the listed statements? If not, what are you hiding?

የባንዳ ልጅ ከወረሰዉ ሌላ ምንም ነገር ልሆን አይችልም!

[Abere]

ሆረስ፤

ምክንያቱም የኢትዮጵያ ዘላቂ ጥቅም ከማንኛውም ጉዳይ በላይ ነው። የኢትዮጵያን ዘላቂ ጥቅም እና ታሪካዊ የግዛት ልኡላዊነት መጫዎቻ ሲሆን አላየንም አልሰማንም ያለ ሁሉ አሁን ኢትዮጵያ የሶማሊያ ዘብ ጠባቂ እንድትሆን የመጠየቅ ሞራል ከየት መጣ?

Why would Ethiopia sacrifice her national interest for a propaganda stunt of "Africa counterterrorism". First thing first, Ethiopia has to put her national interest and the rest second or last. Ethiopia is not the #1 responsible country in Africa and the world to babysit Somalia by protecting from Al Shabab. Al Shabab has nothing to do with Somaliland, it is a separate issue. People who are crying foul today may ask Ethiopia to babysit Egypt by protecting her from Muslim brotherhood.

Abere,
Thank you. Somalia a failed entity that doesn't have a single tank leave alone a jet to its name beats Egypt's war drum, a war drum that has nothing to do with Somaliland ports but that has everything to do with the Ethiopian GERD. Egypt is turning Somalia into a toy. Yes, let Somalia fight its Al Shabab war. We will worry when Shabab touches Ethiopia.

[Jikaar]

Ethiopia, somaliland , RSF , south Yemen and Emirates are in the same side. UAE are the most progressive Arab nation. Very good business partners. Unlike Qatar who exports terrorism , the UAE are builders.

I guess you don't know UAE. They are savages. They strive on war and destabilizing countries, especially Africa. Yes, they help not Ethiopia, but Abiy and Abiy is just a prostitute, you pay him he will bend, and UAE are bending him all the way to his knee.

They implemented huge economical infrastructure for us in a very short period of time. UAE improved our political status from zero to the one of the most important entities in the horn. We don't care what they did to you. One man's enemy is an other man's friend.

[Revelations]

Legal consequences

From a legal standpoint, an MoU is not considered a binding agreement like a treaty and serves as a non-committal declaration of intent without imposing legal responsibilities on the parties involved. Either party has the option to end the agreement at their discretion, often without cause and at short notice. MoUs are not subject to the legislative procedures of oversight, review, and ratification as outlined in the constitution. When utilised as a binding agreement, an MoU can become undemocratic and circumvent the constitutional safeguards put in place to preserve parliamentary sovereignty. At the international level, an MoU is not governed by treaty law and breaches do not result in international responsibility, nor is it obligatory to be registered under Article 102 of the United Nations Charter. Hence, neither Ethiopia nor Somaliland have the legal standing to make an international claim regarding the MoU before an international court, and breaches do not automatically lead to compensation or reparations. Although it holds great political, diplomatic, and geopolitical significance, the MoU can be considered a mere “gentleman’s agreement”, with its true value lying in the realm of politics rather than law.


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