Mereja.Forum

[Axumezana]

Egypt can only resolve its issues with Ethiopia through win-win international water conflict resolution mechanism.

The following is extract from " Positioning post war Tigray and Ethiopia ....."

(7) Urgent Security related issues that require immediate actions

(7.1) The Eritrea issue

- The Algiers agreement with Eritrea was misguided and was a mistake. It should be the 1st stupid post war peace agreement in the world because “a defeated aggressor was appeased as if it was the victor”. TPLF and EPRDF have repetitively failed Ethiopians about Eritrea as illustrated below:

(i) The TPLF recognized the Eritrean case as colonial issue denying thousands of years history of Ethiopia

(ii) EPRDF supported the secession of Eritrea from Ethiopia without securing the Assab port and reduced Ethiopia to be the most populated country on earth without seaport

(iii) Disgracefully ended the costly border war in the year 2000 with huge cost to Ethiopia but no gain (I feel very angry about those Ethiopian soldiers who died during the hasty and unorderly withdrawal from Eritrea after the defeat of Eritrea)

(iv) Signed the most stupid post war agreement which did not bring peace and caused major economic, security damage to Ethiopia particularly to the people of Tigray

Abiy also made more grave and strategic mistakes over the last three years and allowed Isaias to neo-colonize Ethiopia and he himself has become Isaias’s puppet. Abiy allowed Isaias to destroy Tigray and he handed over the sovereignty of Ethiopia including its security and military. The problem with Eritrea could only be resolved through surgical operation to remove Isaias from power. Therefore, TDF needs to march to Eritrea and remove Isaias from power and arrest him and bring him to justice for all crimes he committed on the Tigray and the Ethiopian people. Eritrea could be without government for some time, but TDF affiliated Eritrean forces must take responsibility to maintain law and order. Beware of Egypt could try to install its own puppet government!

The Eritrean people want to be economically, culturally, and historically to be integrated with Ethiopia while maintaining their sovereignty. Same is also true for Tigrayans/ Ethiopians. Hence, there should be a liberalized border, trade, and job market between the two countries with the citizens of the two nations benefit in equitable manner and Ethiopia using the ports of Eritrea. TPLF must also consider taking possession of the strip of land in Eritrea from Assab/Djibouti border to the historical Axumite port Adulis, securing ports both to Tigray and Afar/Ethiopia as a strategic penalty for the tens of billions of dollars damage and the genocidal and destructive war crime Eritrea committed against Tigray and Ethiopia.





(7.2) Reconciliation among other warring parties and political parties

The Ethiopian Transition government must prepare various forums for the involvement of other warring parties and political parties for participation in the change process, reconciliation, and peace. Give special emphasis to Amhara and Oromia as risks of civil war are imminent. Immediate negotiation with OLA and Amhara forces and addressing their request is key to deny Egypt any foot hold to further destabilize Ethiopia



(7.3) Egypt and the water issue: Negotiate with Egypt but prepare for war

The water issue has been a major driver of instability both in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. Egypt with the support of its foot soldier Isaias, has been behind the instabilities Ethiopia faced over the last decade and knowing that its efforts to get a "zero sum agreement on water share" may be foiled, if TPLF led government comes to power, it could start an immediate war using Sudan or directly against Ethiopia. It could also use the USA to pressurize Abiy to sign the water share agreement on the condition that the USA will save him from losing his power at the expense of TPLF. Hence, TPLF/ the new government must be ready to deal with this threat from Egypt/USA. The new government also needs to arrange a sort of security alliance with USA and Israel.



However, the zero-sum game that has been played by Egypt to ensure its water security over the years has become unsustainable, out of dated and irrelevant for the following reasons:

* Creating jobs and feeding the rapidly growing population in the Horn of Africa and in the countries of the Nile Basin demands governments to generate power for industrialization and to transform traditional farming to mechanized irrigated farming to produce sufficient food to ensure food security which requires more consumption of water. The domestic consumption of water also increases in proportion to the population growth.

- The Aswan High dam only stores one-year flow of the Nile water, whereas global warming and other unpredictable climate changes could result in a drought that lasts to the biblical-proportion of up to seven years. In that case, the Aswan dam could dry with unimaginable consequences on Egypt’s growing population and makes Egypt’s current water security strategy null and void.

* The growing population of Egypt also requires more water than the storage capacity of the High Aswan dam. That necessitates the construction of additional reservoir dams either in Ethiopia and/or Sudan (building an additional dam in Egypt is not practical). Egyptians are also considering other sources of water such us linking the Congo River with the White Nile and digging the Jonglei Canal in South Sudan which are good ideas but difficult to implement. If Egypt succeeds to dig the Jonglei Canal, the construction of dams on the Abay river is mandatory to regulate its flow and avoid flooding of Khartoum,

* The Aswan high dam which has a water capacity of 130 billion (GERD stores about 74 billion) cubic meter, may be filled by silt within the next 300 to 500 years. How will Egypt manage such unavoidable fact with a huge population that is 95% dependent on the Nile water? In fact, the construction of dams in Ethiopia prolongs the service life of the Aswan dams by reducing accumulation of silt in the Aswan dam.

* Considering the above points, it is expected that Egyptian water security strategists and the Egyptians government covertly want the construction of more dams (reservoirs) in Ethiopia as far as their so-called historical share is not significantly affected. They also know that dams built in Ethiopia along the deep Abay river canyon (1.4 km deep, more than 40 km wide and about 400 km long) could store thousands of billions cubic meter in water volume and could only be mainly used for hydroelectric power generation with lower evaporation loss and lower construction cost per volume. Therefore, instead of fighting for the 74 billion Cubic meter the GERD stores, discussing and negotiating about building additional mega dams that could generate more power and at same time be used as a “water bank” for the three countries that could store hundreds of millions of cubic meters in a longer period could solve the problem in a strategic and peaceful manner. Egypt and Sudan could help Ethiopia in reforestation of the Ethiopian Highlands to increase rainfall and the water discharge in the Abay river.

* Therefore, since Egypt wants more dams to be built in Ethiopia to use it as water reservoir, agree a commercial agreement with Egypt and Sudan that allows both countries to jointly build more dams on the Abay gorge and buy water from Ethiopia (after using their equitable share).

[Abere]

____ First, more than anytime ever, the country needs to out law the OLF/TPLF tribal kilil and ban ethnic politics and ethnic party. This the most stupid thing ever happened to Ethiopians. This crazy TPLF/OLF ethnic politics has exposed the country to foreign vulture. Abiy Ahmed is not the kind of person who can consummate this most burning issue, because he thinks he can impose the stupid Orommuma regime over the rest of the majority Ethiopians, which in fact is not helpful for Oromos as well.
The tribalization and Kililization of Ethiopia is favorable atmosphere for Egypt and other enemies of Ethiopia. This is the biggest loophole they exploited. Blocking this loophole is 100% appropriate know where the OLF's head quarter was - funded by Egypt and trained by Egypt.

____ Yes, Egypt at some point needs to busted. It has been bullying Sub-Saharan African. The only ones disputing her in the walk is Ethiopia. Out of all the Nile riparian countries (all of whom were colonized and still are neo-colonized), only Ethiopia challenged Egypt not to loot Aby river alone. This is not something Egypt will peacefully lose. This means Ethiopians have to be on high alert. Get our house in order, procure weapons as competitive as Egypt. Egypt does have second hand used salvage weapons donated by the West. Ethiopia can do that. The hydroelectric power revenue can be earmarked just to do that - by weapon to protect and can hit Egypt anywhere in the event she dares to touch

[euroland]

Agame boy
Abiy can’t even defeat one small armed group in his country let alone to fly a complicated air mission 2,000 miles away. We know you agames are disappointed the war he supposed to have against Eritrea was never materialized; that was your only hope. Agames are not lucky in nature


Back in line to get your USAIDE handouts…agame boy

Egypt can only resolve its issues with Ethiopia through win-win international water conflict resolution mechanism.

The following is extract from " Positioning post war Tigray and Ethiopia ....."

(7) Urgent Security related issues that require immediate actions

(7.1) The Eritrea issue

- The Algiers agreement with Eritrea was misguided and was a mistake. It should be the 1st stupid post war peace agreement in the world because “a defeated aggressor was appeased as if it was the victor”. TPLF and EPRDF have repetitively failed Ethiopians about Eritrea as illustrated below:

(i) The TPLF recognized the Eritrean case as colonial issue denying thousands of years history of Ethiopia

(ii) EPRDF supported the secession of Eritrea from Ethiopia without securing the Assab port and reduced Ethiopia to be the most populated country on earth without seaport

(iii) Disgracefully ended the costly border war in the year 2000 with huge cost to Ethiopia but no gain (I feel very angry about those Ethiopian soldiers who died during the hasty and unorderly withdrawal from Eritrea after the defeat of Eritrea)

(iv) Signed the most stupid post war agreement which did not bring peace and caused major economic, security damage to Ethiopia particularly to the people of Tigray

Abiy also made more grave and strategic mistakes over the last three years and allowed Isaias to neo-colonize Ethiopia and he himself has become Isaias’s puppet. Abiy allowed Isaias to destroy Tigray and he handed over the sovereignty of Ethiopia including its security and military. The problem with Eritrea could only be resolved through surgical operation to remove Isaias from power. Therefore, TDF needs to march to Eritrea and remove Isaias from power and arrest him and bring him to justice for all crimes he committed on the Tigray and the Ethiopian people. Eritrea could be without government for some time, but TDF affiliated Eritrean forces must take responsibility to maintain law and order. Beware of Egypt could try to install its own puppet government!

The Eritrean people want to be economically, culturally, and historically to be integrated with Ethiopia while maintaining their sovereignty. Same is also true for Tigrayans/ Ethiopians. Hence, there should be a liberalized border, trade, and job market between the two countries with the citizens of the two nations benefit in equitable manner and Ethiopia using the ports of Eritrea. TPLF must also consider taking possession of the strip of land in Eritrea from Assab/Djibouti border to the historical Axumite port Adulis, securing ports both to Tigray and Afar/Ethiopia as a strategic penalty for the tens of billions of dollars damage and the genocidal and destructive war crime Eritrea committed against Tigray and Ethiopia.





(7.2) Reconciliation among other warring parties and political parties

The Ethiopian Transition government must prepare various forums for the involvement of other warring parties and political parties for participation in the change process, reconciliation, and peace. Give special emphasis to Amhara and Oromia as risks of civil war are imminent. Immediate negotiation with OLA and Amhara forces and addressing their request is key to deny Egypt any foot hold to further destabilize Ethiopia



(7.3) Egypt and the water issue: Negotiate with Egypt but prepare for war

The water issue has been a major driver of instability both in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. Egypt with the support of its foot soldier Isaias, has been behind the instabilities Ethiopia faced over the last decade and knowing that its efforts to get a "zero sum agreement on water share" may be foiled, if TPLF led government comes to power, it could start an immediate war using Sudan or directly against Ethiopia. It could also use the USA to pressurize Abiy to sign the water share agreement on the condition that the USA will save him from losing his power at the expense of TPLF. Hence, TPLF/ the new government must be ready to deal with this threat from Egypt/USA. The new government also needs to arrange a sort of security alliance with USA and Israel.



However, the zero-sum game that has been played by Egypt to ensure its water security over the years has become unsustainable, out of dated and irrelevant for the following reasons:

* Creating jobs and feeding the rapidly growing population in the Horn of Africa and in the countries of the Nile Basin demands governments to generate power for industrialization and to transform traditional farming to mechanized irrigated farming to produce sufficient food to ensure food security which requires more consumption of water. The domestic consumption of water also increases in proportion to the population growth.

- The Aswan High dam only stores one-year flow of the Nile water, whereas global warming and other unpredictable climate changes could result in a drought that lasts to the biblical-proportion of up to seven years. In that case, the Aswan dam could dry with unimaginable consequences on Egypt’s growing population and makes Egypt’s current water security strategy null and void.

* The growing population of Egypt also requires more water than the storage capacity of the High Aswan dam. That necessitates the construction of additional reservoir dams either in Ethiopia and/or Sudan (building an additional dam in Egypt is not practical). Egyptians are also considering other sources of water such us linking the Congo River with the White Nile and digging the Jonglei Canal in South Sudan which are good ideas but difficult to implement. If Egypt succeeds to dig the Jonglei Canal, the construction of dams on the Abay river is mandatory to regulate its flow and avoid flooding of Khartoum,

* The Aswan high dam which has a water capacity of 130 billion (GERD stores about 74 billion) cubic meter, may be filled by silt within the next 300 to 500 years. How will Egypt manage such unavoidable fact with a huge population that is 95% dependent on the Nile water? In fact, the construction of dams in Ethiopia prolongs the service life of the Aswan dams by reducing accumulation of silt in the Aswan dam.

* Considering the above points, it is expected that Egyptian water security strategists and the Egyptians government covertly want the construction of more dams (reservoirs) in Ethiopia as far as their so-called historical share is not significantly affected. They also know that dams built in Ethiopia along the deep Abay river canyon (1.4 km deep, more than 40 km wide and about 400 km long) could store thousands of billions cubic meter in water volume and could only be mainly used for hydroelectric power generation with lower evaporation loss and lower construction cost per volume. Therefore, instead of fighting for the 74 billion Cubic meter the GERD stores, discussing and negotiating about building additional mega dams that could generate more power and at same time be used as a “water bank” for the three countries that could store hundreds of millions of cubic meters in a longer period could solve the problem in a strategic and peaceful manner. Egypt and Sudan could help Ethiopia in reforestation of the Ethiopian Highlands to increase rainfall and the water discharge in the Abay river.

* Therefore, since Egypt wants more dams to be built in Ethiopia to use it as water reservoir, agree a commercial agreement with Egypt and Sudan that allows both countries to jointly build more dams on the Abay gorge and buy water from Ethiopia (after using their equitable share).

[Axumezana]

Egypt was the one who instigated Ethinic division in Ethiopia by funding ethnic based liberation fronts for the last 7 decades. The root cause of our problem is of course internal , which is lack of democracy but Egypt is the one which exploited the internal weakness to destroy Ethiopia . Ethiopians have to fight for democracy while we defend Egypt in unity.

[euroland]

Egypt was the one who instigated Ethinic division in Ethiopia

And wrote and included the Article 39 on the constitution

Agame boy
Do you have any more jokes for the night?

[Axumezana]

Ascari shallow boy,

Article 39 is about human right for self determination and has no relationship for ethnic division. Imagine if Somalia had such provision. The issue of Somaliland could have been solved easily.

[Dark Energy]

F..ucking agame,

Egypt is the land of the likes of Jemal Abdelnassir. Ethiopia is no contest to Egypt. Agame is a minority super poor and looked down upon soul in Ethiopia. Abbiy is a bit smarter than your Agame qomal behind is. He is walking the fine lines. Egypt is the voice of the Arab World. Even, the Emirates dude would pee on you if you try to arouse mighty Egypt.

[Axumezana]

Ascari boy ,

What is expected from ascari like you who are slaves of Egypt!