Mereja.Forum

[Sadacha Macca]

--- I am just wondering how you imagined TPLF as if it were a formidable force whose life really depends on food aid. The only reason why TPLF has been breathing is due to the OLF in the current “government". TPLF has neither the courage to stand a good fight nor the means to stay. It is just an ordinary village rebel by accident of history and coincidence robbed power last time, largely due to Shabia.
---- When you stated, "You said Abiy has reasons for not ''wiping out TPLF,'' when in reality, he would fail and take the country down with him, as Mengistu did, if he were to try to commit to another decade or multi-decade war..."
The truth is, Mengistu Hailemariam left Ethiopia in a much better situation than now where the country is going through. This is another apple and orange comparison. Ethiopians felt much safer by then than they are now.

--- You are asking the obvious question. The mouthpiece of TPLF, Getachew Reda, has been reporting to his foreign bosses they are attacking Eritrea troops. Although tens of thousands of TPF rag tags fallen like the leaves of an oak tree in the fall season. Yes, TPLF launched war against Eritrea. You want to condemn it?
--- The only thing that liken TPLF with Afghan Taliban is they both are terrorists other than that each has its own size, nature, context, and potential. TPLF is simply a village level bandit. It can be taken care of. Who can take of it? not a crawling another snake, we need an Eagle. An Eagle swift, strong, has the claw and tenacity to catch from its hole.

I used facts to substantiate my claims and cited examples, such as Afghanistan and elsewhere, where central governments, with allies such as superpowers with vastly superior arms, still LOST in the end. What did you use to substantiate your claims? Facts? Examples? No and, No.
It's an analogy, because like in Afghanistan, where the central government with its ally [the West], tried to wipe out a group labelled as a terrorist, they couldn't; even with the direct participation of a super power/various superpowers too.
TPLF, after retreating to its home base, is no longer a ''bully'' to the rest of Ethiopia, as long as it stays within Tigray's borders, it wouldn't be a bully-as it was when it ruled from the center, Addis Ababa; it instead transitioned from a terrorist bully, to a terrorist movement in its home-base where it has support from the locals, despite being outnumbered and out-gunned by its government and neighbors- similar to the case in Afghanistan, albeit with some differences in sizes of the countries, the armaments of the neighbors fighting it, and the central government fighting it, etc.
In this case, despite the differences in several things/factors:
Abiy would be the Afghani president, except that, he has enough local support apparently, and enough armed forces, to remain in power for now.
The crumbled ENDF, would be the Afghan army, except that it is no longer intact and as efficient as it was before, due to the corruption in the armed forces that saw the tigrayans only be the top leaders and get the best training.
Taliban would be TPLF, except it only operates in one state for the most part, and due to its popularity there, it can survive for the time being.



You said Abiy has reasons for not ''wiping out TPLF,'' when in reality, he would fail and take the country down with him, as Mengistu did, if he were to try to commit to another decade or multi-decade war, which of course benefits those who hate Abiy so much that they don't mind if he goes down, even if the countries economy and stability potentially worsen and go down with him, such as yourself, but those who are not blinded by emotions, such as yourself, see that, despite his many flaws and mistakes, Abiy was wise to not continue fighting an unwinnable war. You can not fight your way out of every problem. This type of attitude is one reason why Ethiopia has been caught up in back to back civil wars and conflicts, since its inception; when did it ever have some peace?


Is Tigray fighting Eritrea now? Are there ongoing conflicts between the two? If so, prove it, otherwise, the Eritreans here themselves would have discussed it. You said Amhara's can do it alone, without help, which is fine; but did you consult with Amhara's and ask if they want more nonstop wars with their neighbors? More TPLF soldiers in Lalibela, Wallo, elsewhere, seeking to take out their desire for revenge on their women and children? Or, should they just fight nonstop wars to satisfy YOUR desire and opinions?

The best point you made is regards to the basic services in Tigray, this is where the internal movement of Tigrayans needs to strengthen itself to either: make a new party, as I said, that is strong enough to garner support from within to topple TPLF, work with its neighbors, and the federal government, to resume those services; OR, do it on their own since they are choosing TPLF over Ethiopia. Any movement from the outside to impose its will on Tigray, or any nation determined to not be enslaved or be dictated to by others; is bound to fail. It failed elsewhere and will fail there, too.

Eritrea can score a win, only in conventional warfare though... as you said, but it will just lead to more wars, it won't end with the defeat of the tplf remnants or their remaining elites... it will only drive thousands and thousands more of them to the forests and mountains to fight another 10 years or more.... this is what you're failing to comprehend...they will simply see it as a foreign invasion and stand with whomever is in power, in this case the TPLF, and fight against what they perceive as an attack on their entire nation and survival... it's not as simple as ''fight, win fast and it's over''...no, far from it!

*Not saying it's a formidable force perse, but I am saying that, it has enough popular support in Tigray, due to historical reasons, both the recent and distant past; to stay in power there. It's not always about brute force and armaments, hence the reason why Mengistu lost- even though his army had more arms and funds than all the guerrilla armies fighting him. You say the TPLF is 'ordinary rebel,' yet on their own land, with the support of millions of their own, can make a formidable guerrilla force, and make their mountainous land, hell on earth, for any perceived occupying force; hence the reason why ENDF had to withdraw.

*You blame OLF and Abiy for TPLF, yet, the fact of the matter is, the ENDF was not going to win in a protracted guerrilla war on hostile land, surrounded by enemies in Tigray, no matter how many arms, jets, and soldiers they could've mustered; because once again, the TPLF was popular enough to have more support and the locals saw the ENDF/EDF/ as being invaders and occupiers. Guerrilla warfare is draining and the already demoralized and weakened ENDF would have never won there, in a drawn out, protracted war; the same way the ENDF's of the past lost those wars. You say Ethiopians prefer Mengistu's time to now, right? Well, once again: where is the proof? Did you conduct a poll? Did you conduct a survey? You have no proof to back up those claims, you're just talking for the sake of talking, let's be honest here. Mengistu left the country in a better place, of course, because you want what happened then, to happen now: for the government to fail, so that another one, hopefully for you, one that you like & works in accordance with your ideology and belief system to take over. Which Ethiopians did you survey or ask,


*You would've preferred that Abiy kept the army there, despite the fact they began to lose as time went on, because you want to see the government fall the same way Mengistu fell; so that your preferred party could *try* to capture state power, EVEN IF* it meant the country collapsed as a result of that. The longer they would stay there, the more losses they would have taken, then in turn they would taken revenge out on tigrayan civilians, leading to thousands of more Tigrayans joining the TDF/TPLF to seek revenge for their fallen civilians/kin, leading to more and more ENDF losses; a perpetual cycle that wouldn't end.


*Getachew is a liar, but let's say what he said is true; he said Tigray was attacked first: do you buy that too? Or do you believe part of it and disbelieve in another part of it? Nobody would blame Eritrea for fighting in self defense, that's obvious and goes without saying, but as I said before, and if you weren't so emotional you'd see it too: you cannot simply solve this by invading tigray, occupying it, and attacking the populace. If TPLF is seen as an ideology and their heroes, no amount of wars can change that, because you cannot fight ideas with weapons. It's not that hard of a concept to comprehend. You also said Amhara can handle it alone, then, why don't you ask Amhara's if they want more war? Nonstop wars with their neighbor. Can you go around Amhara state, and ask that question then, then post the results? Or prove they agree with you, or that a majority of them, do?
What does taking care of TPLF entail then? Widespread atrocities against tigrayan civilians, who in turn, would join the TDF/TPLF in the tens of thousands, without fear, inspired by a desire for revenge? You are making a complicated situation seem simple, when in reality, you know, I know, we all know, it's far more complex than just sending in strong armed forces.

[Abere]

--- First, you are denying the very obvious fact that the state of situation of Ethiopia at the time Mengistu Hailemraim left was much better than the state of situation of the country now under Abiy Ahmed. It is like 1 +1 = 2 simple fact. The country is not only torn apart, but destroyed and damaged. Even Tigres now under total failure were living a much better lives throughout the 17 years - they get their food, education, health, job and enjoy during the daytime, in their bed times most were doing their regular business of spying to juvenile TPLFs. Now, everyone from all the peripheries of the country to capital city of Addis Ababa is insecure. The country is besieged by violent Orommumma. This is a no brainer. Despite the dictatorial nature of Derg life was cheap, and people were living in dignity nor immorality, lawlessness, theft, and burglary. The government was like a government. If you deny this, you failed to differentiate anarchy from social order.

--- I am not opposing Abiy Ahmed with the intent of favoring any political party over PP-OLF, because I never affiliated myself to any so-called political party. I do not even know if valid political party exists. I am a free man - I don't want to be a salve of any party. Why would I surrender my freedom of thinking. I am visiting this site to voice for truth because Ethiopia is run by irrational tribal thugs. So, do not deflect the theme of the discussion.

--- You gave up hope on ENDF to liberate Tigray ordinary people. That is true because ENDF in its core is the true friend of TPLF as it ENDF itself is operated by OLF. It is not TPLF is strong, it is because the OLF and TPLF bond is rather strong. In early November 2020, the Tigre babysitter ENDF was slaughtered after a feastful day ( never in the history of the world heard a Defense force armed to teeth of a country slaughtered like sheep). Lucky ones escaped to Eritrea naked and the rest encircled. However, the Amhara Fano freed the encircled ones; and the Eritrean welcome them with hot meal and cloth, repaired their broken moral. Thanks to Fano and Eritrea, TPLF was broken like a glass falling on a cement floor. Unfortunately, ENDF force Fano to leave Tigray and asked Eritrea the same, after that the OLF led ENDF, brought a pretext that straying women (probably are seksual workers) pepper sprayed them and receive them poisoned water so that they can't stand them. So, an army armed to teeth losing battle for pepper spray is a joke. The funny thing is the "PM" appreciated those who committed suicide than responding to pepper spray This all fake. There are two forces that can crash TPLF, Amhara or Eritrea. For Amhara, Abiy Ahmed already stopped them to not cross Qobbo, because he knows what they could. But Eritrea is free to make her own choice. Will Abiy Ahmed involve if to help TPLF when the TPLF get smacked? Time will tell

--- The sure thing is whether one likes or not, Eritrea and TPLF will fight. There is no peaceful solution as long as TPLF remains intact in Tigray. My sense tells me you really want TPLF to stay in power, be an alliance to OLF. And you don't want Eritrea to take out TPLF.
---- The way for the future of East Africa region is the presence of countries without tribal/ethnic political system. We don't want to see a country hobbled by ethnic or tribal system. There is no chance TPLF or OLF can remain to be obstacles of regional development. The TPLF and OLF system has to be towed away. Since you are fan of tribalism things like this don’t sit very well with you. Other than that TPLF is a village level rebel thug with no potency to match a fearsome force.

*Not saying it's a formidable force perse, but I am saying that, it has enough popular support in Tigray, due to historical reasons, both the recent and distant past; to stay in power there. It's not always about brute force and armaments, hence the reason why Mengistu lost- even though his army had more arms and funds than all the guerrilla armies fighting him. You say the TPLF is 'ordinary rebel,' yet on their own land, with the support of millions of their own, can make a formidable guerrilla force, and make their mountainous land, hell on earth, for any perceived occupying force; hence the reason why ENDF had to withdraw.

*You blame OLF and Abiy for TPLF, yet, the fact of the matter is, the ENDF was not going to win in a protracted guerrilla war on hostile land, surrounded by enemies in Tigray, no matter how many arms, jets, and soldiers they could've mustered; because once again, the TPLF was popular enough to have more support and the locals saw the ENDF/EDF/ as being invaders and occupiers. Guerrilla warfare is draining and the already demoralized and weakened ENDF would have never won there, in a drawn out, protracted war; the same way the ENDF's of the past lost those wars. You say Ethiopians prefer Mengistu's time to now, right? Well, once again: where is the proof? Did you conduct a poll? Did you conduct a survey? You have no proof to back up those claims, you're just talking for the sake of talking, let's be honest here. Mengistu left the country in a better place, of course, because you want what happened then, to happen now: for the government to fail, so that another one, hopefully for you, one that you like & works in accordance with your ideology and belief system to take over. Which Ethiopians did you survey or ask,


*You would've preferred that Abiy kept the army there, despite the fact they began to lose as time went on, because you want to see the government fall the same way Mengistu fell; so that your preferred party could *try* to capture state power, EVEN IF* it meant the country collapsed as a result of that. The longer they would stay there, the more losses they would have taken, then in turn they would taken revenge out on tigrayan civilians, leading to thousands of more Tigrayans joining the TDF/TPLF to seek revenge for their fallen civilians/kin, leading to more and more ENDF losses; a perpetual cycle that wouldn't end.


*Getachew is a liar, but let's say what he said is true; he said Tigray was attacked first: do you buy that too? Or do you believe part of it and disbelieve in another part of it? Nobody would blame Eritrea for fighting in self defense, that's obvious and goes without saying, but as I said before, and if you weren't so emotional you'd see it too: you cannot simply solve this by invading tigray, occupying it, and attacking the populace. If TPLF is seen as an ideology and their heroes, no amount of wars can change that, because you cannot fight ideas with weapons. It's not that hard of a concept to comprehend. You also said Amhara can handle it alone, then, why don't you ask Amhara's if they want more war? Nonstop wars with their neighbor. Can you go around Amhara state, and ask that question then, then post the results? Or prove they agree with you, or that a majority of them, do?
What does taking care of TPLF entail then? Widespread atrocities against tigrayan civilians, who in turn, would join the TDF/TPLF in the tens of thousands, without fear, inspired by a desire for revenge? You are making a complicated situation seem simple, when in reality, you know, I know, we all know, it's far more complex than just sending in strong armed forces.

[Sadacha Macca]

--- First, you are denying the very obvious fact that the state of situation of Ethiopia at the time Mengistu Hailemraim left was much better than the state of situation of the country now under Abiy Ahmed. It is like 1 +1 = 2 simple fact. The country is not only torn apart, but destroyed and damaged. Even Tigres now under total failure were living a much better lives throughout the 17 years - they get their food, education, health, job and enjoy during the daytime, in their bed times most were doing their regular business of spying to juvenile TPLFs. Now, everyone from all the peripheries of the country to capital city of Addis Ababa is insecure. The country is besieged by violent Orommumma. This is a no brainer. Despite the dictatorial nature of Derg life was cheap, and people were living in dignity nor immorality, lawlessness, theft, and burglary. The government was like a government. If you deny this, you failed to differentiate anarchy from social order.

--- I am not opposing Abiy Ahmed with the intent of favoring any political party over PP-OLF, because I never affiliated myself to any so-called political party. I do not even know if valid political party exists. I am a free man - I don't want to be a salve of any party. Why would I surrender my freedom of thinking. I am visiting this site to voice for truth because Ethiopia is run by irrational tribal thugs. So, do not deflect the theme of the discussion.

--- You gave up hope on ENDF to liberate Tigray ordinary people. That is true because ENDF in its core is the true friend of TPLF as it ENDF itself is operated by OLF. It is not TPLF is strong, it is because the OLF and TPLF bond is rather strong. In early November 2020, the Tigre babysitter ENDF was slaughtered after a feastful day ( never in the history of the world heard a Defense force armed to teeth of a country slaughtered like sheep). Lucky ones escaped to Eritrea naked and the rest encircled. However, the Amhara Fano freed the encircled ones; and the Eritrean welcome them with hot meal and cloth, repaired their broken moral. Thanks to Fano and Eritrea, TPLF was broken like a glass falling on a cement floor. Unfortunately, ENDF force Fano to leave Tigray and asked Eritrea the same, after that the OLF led ENDF, brought a pretext that straying women (probably are seksual workers) pepper sprayed them and receive them poisoned water so that they can't stand them. So, an army armed to teeth losing battle for pepper spray is a joke. The funny thing is the "PM" appreciated those who committed suicide than responding to pepper spray This all fake. There are two forces that can crash TPLF, Amhara or Eritrea. For Amhara, Abiy Ahmed already stopped them to not cross Qobbo, because he knows what they could. But Eritrea is free to make her own choice. Will Abiy Ahmed involve if to help TPLF when the TPLF get smacked? Time will tell

--- The sure thing is whether one likes or not, Eritrea and TPLF will fight. There is no peaceful solution as long as TPLF remains intact in Tigray. My sense tells me you really want TPLF to stay in power, be an alliance to OLF. And you don't want Eritrea to take out TPLF.
---- The way for the future of East Africa region is the presence of countries without tribal/ethnic political system. We don't want to see a country hobbled by ethnic or tribal system. There is no chance TPLF or OLF can remain to be obstacles of regional development. The TPLF and OLF system has to be towed away. Since you are fan of tribalism things like this don’t sit very well with you. Other than that TPLF is a village level rebel thug with no potency to match a fearsome force.

*Not saying it's a formidable force perse, but I am saying that, it has enough popular support in Tigray, due to historical reasons, both the recent and distant past; to stay in power there. It's not always about brute force and armaments, hence the reason why Mengistu lost- even though his army had more arms and funds than all the guerrilla armies fighting him. You say the TPLF is 'ordinary rebel,' yet on their own land, with the support of millions of their own, can make a formidable guerrilla force, and make their mountainous land, hell on earth, for any perceived occupying force; hence the reason why ENDF had to withdraw.

*You blame OLF and Abiy for TPLF, yet, the fact of the matter is, the ENDF was not going to win in a protracted guerrilla war on hostile land, surrounded by enemies in Tigray, no matter how many arms, jets, and soldiers they could've mustered; because once again, the TPLF was popular enough to have more support and the locals saw the ENDF/EDF/ as being invaders and occupiers. Guerrilla warfare is draining and the already demoralized and weakened ENDF would have never won there, in a drawn out, protracted war; the same way the ENDF's of the past lost those wars. You say Ethiopians prefer Mengistu's time to now, right? Well, once again: where is the proof? Did you conduct a poll? Did you conduct a survey? You have no proof to back up those claims, you're just talking for the sake of talking, let's be honest here. Mengistu left the country in a better place, of course, because you want what happened then, to happen now: for the government to fail, so that another one, hopefully for you, one that you like & works in accordance with your ideology and belief system to take over. Which Ethiopians did you survey or ask,


*You would've preferred that Abiy kept the army there, despite the fact they began to lose as time went on, because you want to see the government fall the same way Mengistu fell; so that your preferred party could *try* to capture state power, EVEN IF* it meant the country collapsed as a result of that. The longer they would stay there, the more losses they would have taken, then in turn they would taken revenge out on tigrayan civilians, leading to thousands of more Tigrayans joining the TDF/TPLF to seek revenge for their fallen civilians/kin, leading to more and more ENDF losses; a perpetual cycle that wouldn't end.


*Getachew is a liar, but let's say what he said is true; he said Tigray was attacked first: do you buy that too? Or do you believe part of it and disbelieve in another part of it? Nobody would blame Eritrea for fighting in self defense, that's obvious and goes without saying, but as I said before, and if you weren't so emotional you'd see it too: you cannot simply solve this by invading tigray, occupying it, and attacking the populace. If TPLF is seen as an ideology and their heroes, no amount of wars can change that, because you cannot fight ideas with weapons. It's not that hard of a concept to comprehend. You also said Amhara can handle it alone, then, why don't you ask Amhara's if they want more war? Nonstop wars with their neighbor. Can you go around Amhara state, and ask that question then, then post the results? Or prove they agree with you, or that a majority of them, do?
What does taking care of TPLF entail then? Widespread atrocities against tigrayan civilians, who in turn, would join the TDF/TPLF in the tens of thousands, without fear, inspired by a desire for revenge? You are making a complicated situation seem simple, when in reality, you know, I know, we all know, it's far more complex than just sending in strong armed forces.

1. Okay, explain how the country was better off in 1990 when Mengistu fled as opposed to now? Looking at both cases, both are bad for the country, neither situations were exactly ''good times.''
Was the country not torn apart by a never ending civil war then too? Key Shibbir/Nech Shibbir, then the wars in Eritrea, Tigray, Somalia, Somali kilil, in parts of Oromo land, etc?
In regards to Tigray, are you sure things were normal during their war against the Derg? I doubt it. It may not have been bad as now, true, but the situations are different, seeing as how it was there where the former rulers retreated to, after making enemies of all of their neighbors from Amhara to Eritrea.
When you make enemies on all sides, who want revenge, these things happen, as sad as it is. It could've been avoided.
Addis Ababa under the derg wasn't good, there were killings daily between eprp/derg for quite a while, while I do agree life may've been cheaper back then, for sure, but everything globally was cheaper then, so it's only right things would be that way.

2. I said that, because you obviously want Abiy's government to wage a unwinnable war, a war poor Ethiopia cannot afford; which in turn would not only take his government down, but take the economy of the country down with it, leading to only God knows what, and you know this, yet you do not care, because you want his government to go down by any means; then obviously if that's the case, whether you admit it or not, you have a party, or a movement, that you'd prefer in Menelik's Palace; which is fine, I am not against that, but you should not pretend as if that's not the case.
Otherwise, what would you replace Abiy's regime with? No government at all and all out chaos? Or? It's easy to advocate for his regimes downfall, but you have to think further than that, long-term, who or what would replace his government in your opinion?

3. It's not a matter of ''giving up hope'' in the ENDF, it's a matter of being realistic. You cannot defeat a popular guerrilla army fighting on its own turf, even if you have superior armaments and more funds; just look at those before him as a lesson. They had more arms and funds, yet in the end, lost to the peoples movements who were not superior, by any means, when it comes to armaments and funds....
As a wise man once said: take a lesson from those before you, or you will be a lesson for those after you! The old way of trying to solve each and every thing with armed force has failed time and time again, yet you want that to somehow work this time; when we know, you know, abiy knows, it won't work.
Tigrayans ain't fight with pepper spray, you must be joking or deliberately lying, they fought with the same weapons those before them used to wage a successful guerrilla war on their home turf.
If they were to wage a conventional war, they'd lose, but when waging a guerrilla war, on their own home turf, they naturally have the advantage.



4. If TPLF decides to fight Eritrea, that's their stupidity showing, and it will only prolong their suffering, but I do not think invading tigray would bring an end to this war, simply because neither side, eritrea or ethiopia, can afford a protracted, long term occupation of tigray; it'd be too costly in manpower, funds, etc, that two already poor african countries could ill-afford.
It would only lead to more and more tigrayans picking up arms to join tdf/tplf, which means a never ending guerrilla war. 10 years, 20 years, or even more of wars, that would be foolish, and even abiy realized this, whether it be in oromia or in tigray, using brute force won't always work.
OLF's strength doesn't depend on TPLF, we do not border each other, nor do they coordinate their military operations, so your sense is wrong on that one.
I am just being objective, or trying to be fair, because the lessons of the past should not be forgotten- and those before us, tried to use war for each and every problem, and look at where they are now.
Oromo will never compromise on the existence of a federation, or federalism, because we do not want a repeat of the past, and want to exercise our natural right to self determination on our land, so you can have your future for east africa with eritrea if you want, and if they agree, but that won't work for Oromo's.
You call it ethnic or tribal, to denigrate, but we call it ruling ourselves, ruling our lands, because the Oromo is a nation in itself, simple as that.
ENDF already failed there and will always fail, because brute force cannot solve everything, no matter who fearsome they are, because you can't fight ideas and ideologies with armies.