Under the pressure from the international community, in the absence of the expected quick win on TPLF and further deterioration of the security and economic conditions of Ethiopia Abiy's unprincipled relationship with Isaias, which we have witnessed over the last four years, has been cooling down recently and it is expected to further deteriorate as the on-going peace negotiation between Abiy and TPLF progresses.
The contingency plan for Isaias is to further strengthen his relationship with the Amhara illegal Fano's through the free access he has gained via Western Tigray/Humera and try to further destabilize Ethiopia and if possible to remove Abiy from power and replace him with a new puppet from Amhara.
Therefore, Abiy needs to facilitate the reoccupation of western Tigray by TPLF so that the risk of Isaias using illegal Fano's to sabotage him is significantly reduced.