Mereja.Forum

[Abaymado]

Everything now will soar in price especially product that are imported. this will be huge burden to the middle class and to the poor. What is the reason that make birr to lose its value dramatically? Why Nakfa remain as it is? Does the Eritrean government is adjusting the exchange rate by itself?

when will the continual of downfall and devaluation of birr end?

Recently I heard from economist, it is possible to bring down the dollar- birr exchange rate. He insist that the continual devaluation of birr could be halted.

I am curious if the situation continues, is it not a good option to use Nakafa for the moment>? What will be the drawback?

[Axumezana]

What is the parallel exchange rate for $ to Nakafa?

[temari]

Everything now will soar in price especially product that are imported. this will be huge burden to the middle class and to the poor. What is the reason that make birr to lose its value dramatically? Why Nakfa remain as it is? Does the Eritrean government is adjusting the exchange rate by itself?

when will the continual of downfall and devaluation of birr end?

Recently I heard from economist, it is possible to bring down the dollar- birr exchange rate. He insist that the continual devaluation of birr could be halted.

I am curious if the situation continues, is it not a good option to use Nakafa for the moment>? What will be the drawback?

You are looking at the issue of exchange rate only from the consumers’ (ሸማቾች) perspective. Exchange rate is much more than that.

Ethiopian and Eritrean economies are very different. You can’t reduce the exchange of 1 dollar to 15 birr in Ethiopia. It’s impossible because the real price is reflected at black market and is determined by demand and supply. As a bigger country and a bigger economy, Ethiopia’s imports are much bigger and that means there is a much higher demand for dollars in Ethiopia than in Eritrea. More demand means stronger dollar. Eritrea doesn’t need to import as much as Ethiopia, leading in less demand for dollars than in Ethiopia.

Even if we start using Nakfa today, that doesn’t change anything as the exchange rate at black market would be over 50 nakfa overnight. It’s not the currency but the demand for dollars that drives the exchange rate.

The only thing the government can do is to artificially reduce the official exchange rate but that will destroy the export sector.

I have discussed and explained the reason in another thread. Read it:
https://mereja.com/forum/viewtopic.php? ... &p=1279887

By the way, having a devaluated currency against the dollar doesn’t mean it’s bad as long as you have sound economy and increasing salaries.

Example:

1 dollar = 126 Japanese Yen
1 dollar = 1200 South Korean Won
1 dollar = 115 Kenyan Shilling

If Ethiopian’s economy starts growing fast say in double digits then it means more imports and more demand for dollar and I expect the exchange rate to hit over 100 birr but if the economy becomes stagnant like currently then the exchange rate may remain the same but if our economy declines then that leads to less imports and less demand for dollars which could result in less exchange rate. In our case and at the current economic stage, I don’t think less exchange rate is a good economic indicator but rather a bad.

Please read the link I gave you above to understand the reasons and why I’m saying this.

[Abaymado]

What is the parallel exchange rate for $ to Nakafa?

15

[Axumezana]

Can you explain what countries like Ethiopia could do to increase the amount of hard currency coming to the country from the diaspora. As far as their is more than 10% difference between the official and the parallel market( currently it is more than 30 %) the diaspora will have less interest to use the official channel. I believe countries like Ethiopia loose billions of dollar every year for this reason and such countries should device innovative incentives to the diaspora such as giving credit notes ( based on the prevailing difference between the official rate and the parallel rate ). The credit notes could be used toward purchase of assets ( real estate) within Ethiopia. For example if I send USD 1000 to Ethiopia on the official channel , in Birr it becomes 51,000 , However , If I use the parallel channel I get Birr 67000.( Assuming 1 $ is Birr 67). Therefore, the government has to issue Birr 16000 credit note to me( this could be managed through the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia) , that I can only use toward buying a real estate. I believe that is a win-win arrangement that helps the country and the diaspora.

[Abaymado]

Everything now will soar in price especially product that are imported. this will be huge burden to the middle class and to the poor. What is the reason that make birr to lose its value dramatically? Why Nakfa remain as it is? Does the Eritrean government is adjusting the exchange rate by itself?

when will the continual of downfall and devaluation of birr end?

Recently I heard from economist, it is possible to bring down the dollar- birr exchange rate. He insist that the continual devaluation of birr could be halted.

I am curious if the situation continues, is it not a good option to use Nakafa for the moment>? What will be the drawback?

You are looking at the issue of exchange rate only from the consumers’ (ሸማቾች) perspective. Exchange rate is much more than that.

Ethiopian and Eritrean economies are very different. You can’t reduce the exchange of 1 dollar to 15 birr in Ethiopia. It’s impossible because the real price is reflected at black market and is determined by demand and supply. As a bigger country and a bigger economy, Ethiopia’s imports are much bigger and that means there is a much higher demand for dollars in Ethiopia than in Eritrea. More demand means stronger dollar. Eritrea doesn’t need to import as much as Ethiopia, leading in less demand for dollars than in Ethiopia.

Even if we start using Nakfa today, that doesn’t change anything as the exchange rate at black market would be over 50 nakfa overnight. It’s not the currency but the demand for dollars that drives the exchange rate.

The only thing the government can do is to artificially reduce the official exchange rate but that will destroy the export sector.

I have discussed and explained the reason in another thread. Read it:
https://mereja.com/forum/viewtopic.php? ... &p=1279887

By the way, having a devaluated currency against the dollar doesn’t mean it’s bad as long as you have sound economy and increasing salaries.

Example:

1 dollar = 126 Japanese Yen
1 dollar = 1200 South Korean Won
1 dollar = 115 Kenyan Shilling

If Ethiopian’s economy starts growing fast say in double digits then it means more imports and more demand for dollar and I expect the exchange rate to hit over 100 birr but if the economy becomes stagnant like currently then the exchange rate may remain the same but if our economy declines then that leads to less imports and less demand for dollars which could result in less exchange rate. In our case and at the current economic stage, I don’t think less exchange rate is a good economic indicator but rather a bad.

Please read the link I gave you above to understand the reasons and why I’m saying this.

I read all of your comments. Very simple to understand . In theory the devaluation of money having impact on export is already known fact. But the matter of the fact is that if your country doesn't have much to offer to others, then the devaluation of money will have devastating effect.

generally the accepting norm is that if the money continually losses its value, the country's economy is at brink.
Regarding importing and black market cases:
First importing all kinds of goods mean that our economy is doomed. Good economy is measured by having balanced export and import goods.
As you said, if Importers buy dollars from the black market, that is their business and it is not ours. we are talking about wellness of our economy as whole regarding and considering the whole society.
IN my opinion, what will happen if the black market disallowed and only the bank responsible to sell it. One of the problem could be dwindling number of private companies will continue. But then what? As far as our society benefited, who care?

The most important thing is that everything now soaring in price including agricultural products which should not be. Everything is in mess.

In my view we can valued our money and there will a tradeoff. That means that we as a people will not be affected but private companies will suffer and the income from these companies will reduce. let it be.

Generally speaking we can argue that our economy is bad. isn't it?

[temari]

Can you explain what countries like Ethiopia could do to increase the amount of hard currency coming to the country from the diaspora. As far as their is more than 10% difference between the official and the parallel market( currently it is more than 30 %) the diaspora will have less interest to use the official channel. I believe countries like Ethiopia loose billions of dollar every year for this reason and such countries should device innovative incentives to the diaspora such as giving credit notes ( based on the prevailing difference between the official rate and the parallel rate ). The credit notes could be used toward purchase of assets ( real estate) within Ethiopia. For example if I send USD 1000 to Ethiopia on the official channel , in Birr it becomes 51,000 , However , If I use the parallel channel I get Birr 67000.( Assuming 1 $ is Birr 67). Therefore, the government has to issue Birr 16000 credit note to me( this could be managed through the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia) , that I can only use toward buying a real estate. I believe that is a win-win arrangement that helps the country and the diaspora.

Your suggestion is one option to temporarily address the problem but ultimately the government has to devalue the Birr to match the black market. In fact in the long ran the government will have to open an official exchange market and stop fixing the exchange rate. We would then have no black markets and no government fixed artificial rates. Everything is done legally by private exchange companies which are now operating in the black market. The price is then determined by supply and demand. We should only be careful to make our currency trade in international exchanges. That brings a big national security risk and open up for international players to manipulate the currency and economy.

[Axumezana]

I agree with the long term solution, but what are the pros and cons of liberalizing the exchange rate for Ethiopia at this time,considering the fact that the country has only about USS 4 billion annual export income, huge potential for tourism ( once it is at peace with itself) and the diaspora could generate upto USD 10 billion per year?

[temari]

Everything now will soar in price especially product that are imported. this will be huge burden to the middle class and to the poor. What is the reason that make birr to lose its value dramatically? Why Nakfa remain as it is? Does the Eritrean government is adjusting the exchange rate by itself?

when will the continual of downfall and devaluation of birr end?

Recently I heard from economist, it is possible to bring down the dollar- birr exchange rate. He insist that the continual devaluation of birr could be halted.

I am curious if the situation continues, is it not a good option to use Nakafa for the moment>? What will be the drawback?

You are looking at the issue of exchange rate only from the consumers’ (ሸማቾች) perspective. Exchange rate is much more than that.

Ethiopian and Eritrean economies are very different. You can’t reduce the exchange of 1 dollar to 15 birr in Ethiopia. It’s impossible because the real price is reflected at black market and is determined by demand and supply. As a bigger country and a bigger economy, Ethiopia’s imports are much bigger and that means there is a much higher demand for dollars in Ethiopia than in Eritrea. More demand means stronger dollar. Eritrea doesn’t need to import as much as Ethiopia, leading in less demand for dollars than in Ethiopia.

Even if we start using Nakfa today, that doesn’t change anything as the exchange rate at black market would be over 50 nakfa overnight. It’s not the currency but the demand for dollars that drives the exchange rate.

The only thing the government can do is to artificially reduce the official exchange rate but that will destroy the export sector.

I have discussed and explained the reason in another thread. Read it:
https://mereja.com/forum/viewtopic.php? ... &p=1279887

By the way, having a devaluated currency against the dollar doesn’t mean it’s bad as long as you have sound economy and increasing salaries.

Example:

1 dollar = 126 Japanese Yen
1 dollar = 1200 South Korean Won
1 dollar = 115 Kenyan Shilling

If Ethiopian’s economy starts growing fast say in double digits then it means more imports and more demand for dollar and I expect the exchange rate to hit over 100 birr but if the economy becomes stagnant like currently then the exchange rate may remain the same but if our economy declines then that leads to less imports and less demand for dollars which could result in less exchange rate. In our case and at the current economic stage, I don’t think less exchange rate is a good economic indicator but rather a bad.

Please read the link I gave you above to understand the reasons and why I’m saying this.

I read all of your comments. Very simple to understand . In theory the devaluation of money having impact on export is already known fact. But the matter of the fact is that if your country doesn't have much to offer to others, then the devaluation of money will have devastating effect.

generally the accepting norm is that if the money continually losses its value, the country's economy is at brink.
Regarding importing and black market cases:
First importing all kinds of goods mean that our economy is doomed. Good economy is measured by having balanced export and import goods.
As you said, if Importers buy dollars from the black market, that is their business and it is not ours. we are talking about wellness of our economy as whole regarding and considering the whole society.
IN my opinion, what will happen if the black market disallowed and only the bank responsible to sell it. One of the problem could be dwindling number of private companies will continue. But then what? As far as our society benefited, who care?

The most important thing is that everything now soaring in price including agricultural products which should not be. Everything is in mess.

In my view we can valued our money and there will a tradeoff. That means that we as a people will not be affected but private companies will suffer and the income from these companies will reduce. let it be.

Generally speaking we can argue that our economy is bad. isn't it?

Devaluation doesn't always mean bad economy and also increase imports also doesn't mean bad although I agree that our ultimate goal should be to find the balance between import and exports. But we are not yet there. We have to manufacture many of the goods we currently import and this will take a long time.

For now we have to ask what drives our imports? Imports are driven by increased demand for fuel, agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, inputs for the manufacturing industry, medicine and also consumer goods. Most companies more or less import something to do their business or manufacture something. So in our case, increased imports can mean companies are growing or new companies are entering the market. Even the growing imports in consumer goods means more people are buying these imported items. That is also not bad.

There is another aspect that is also affecting the exchange rate, i.e. increased prices in the global market. In the global market, prices for almost everything have increased due to the covid pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Fuel prices for example have more than tripped. This will have huge effects on all imports (due to increased shipment costs) including on fertilizers. This also means increased prices for agricultural that are produced in Ethiopia.

Ethiopian agriculture has transformed from where it used to be 30 years ago. Our agriculture is currently highly dependent on imported fertilizers. Fertilizer prices have more than doubled internationally and also fuel prices negatively affect the transportation cost of both the fertilizer shipment and also the cost of delivering the agricultural products to the market.

The government currently is trying to build fertilizer manufacturing plants in cooperation with Morocco as Morocco has over 70% of the world's phosphorus and is an absolute monopoly when it comes to fertilizers.

All in all, we should understand that our economy including our agriculture is globalized and global prices will affect even goods that are produced locally. When we start producing enough export goods that match our import demands then we may achieve trade balance which is a long way to go. But if we destroy our current exporting businesses by refusing to devalue the Birr or making Birr strong then we kill the export market and we will never achieve trade balance. More devaluation and weaker Birr means better export!

You also raised about letting companies go bankrupt. That is a bad idea. It will result in too many unemployed youth which will affect the stability of the country and it also means less tax income for the government which in turn means less salaries.

In my view we have no other option than grow, and grow fast. At the same time we must adjust the salaries to reflect the growth and to coup with the weaker Birr. That is the only path we have. Going back to derg era or holding the economy back etc. are the worst thing to do and will result in much higher unemployed youth that will create havoc in the country and in a government that will not be able to pay salaries etc. which all could result in a state collapse.

[temari]

I agree with the long term solution, but what are the pros and cons of liberalizing the exchange rate for Ethiopia at this time,considering the fact that the country has only about USS 4 billion annual export income, huge potential for tourism ( once it is at peace with itself) and the diaspora could generate upto USD 10 billion per year?

I really don't understand the rational behind why we are still not opening up the exchange market. May be that has more to do with our culture of trying to control everything and being anti business. One negative effect I see for the government is that it has to pay out exporters more birr than what it used to do right now. Exporters sell their goods in dollars and the government pays part of it in birr based on the official rate. So if the official rate is higher the government will pay them more birr.

Btw, exporters used to get up to 70% of their earnings in dollars and the rest in birr. Now the government is giving them only 20% in dollars and 80% in birr. Exporters are fearing this policy soon will kill the export market. All in all we have anti business culture. That is sad!

[Abaymado]

Everything now will soar in price especially product that are imported. this will be huge burden to the middle class and to the poor. What is the reason that make birr to lose its value dramatically? Why Nakfa remain as it is? Does the Eritrean government is adjusting the exchange rate by itself?

when will the continual of downfall and devaluation of birr end?

Recently I heard from economist, it is possible to bring down the dollar- birr exchange rate. He insist that the continual devaluation of birr could be halted.

I am curious if the situation continues, is it not a good option to use Nakafa for the moment>? What will be the drawback?

You are looking at the issue of exchange rate only from the consumers’ (ሸማቾች) perspective. Exchange rate is much more than that.

Ethiopian and Eritrean economies are very different. You can’t reduce the exchange of 1 dollar to 15 birr in Ethiopia. It’s impossible because the real price is reflected at black market and is determined by demand and supply. As a bigger country and a bigger economy, Ethiopia’s imports are much bigger and that means there is a much higher demand for dollars in Ethiopia than in Eritrea. More demand means stronger dollar. Eritrea doesn’t need to import as much as Ethiopia, leading in less demand for dollars than in Ethiopia.

Even if we start using Nakfa today, that doesn’t change anything as the exchange rate at black market would be over 50 nakfa overnight. It’s not the currency but the demand for dollars that drives the exchange rate.

The only thing the government can do is to artificially reduce the official exchange rate but that will destroy the export sector.

I have discussed and explained the reason in another thread. Read it:
https://mereja.com/forum/viewtopic.php? ... &p=1279887

By the way, having a devaluated currency against the dollar doesn’t mean it’s bad as long as you have sound economy and increasing salaries.

Example:

1 dollar = 126 Japanese Yen
1 dollar = 1200 South Korean Won
1 dollar = 115 Kenyan Shilling

If Ethiopian’s economy starts growing fast say in double digits then it means more imports and more demand for dollar and I expect the exchange rate to hit over 100 birr but if the economy becomes stagnant like currently then the exchange rate may remain the same but if our economy declines then that leads to less imports and less demand for dollars which could result in less exchange rate. In our case and at the current economic stage, I don’t think less exchange rate is a good economic indicator but rather a bad.

Please read the link I gave you above to understand the reasons and why I’m saying this.

I read all of your comments. Very simple to understand . In theory the devaluation of money having impact on export is already known fact. But the matter of the fact is that if your country doesn't have much to offer to others, then the devaluation of money will have devastating effect.

generally the accepting norm is that if the money continually losses its value, the country's economy is at brink.
Regarding importing and black market cases:
First importing all kinds of goods mean that our economy is doomed. Good economy is measured by having balanced export and import goods.
As you said, if Importers buy dollars from the black market, that is their business and it is not ours. we are talking about wellness of our economy as whole regarding and considering the whole society.
IN my opinion, what will happen if the black market disallowed and only the bank responsible to sell it. One of the problem could be dwindling number of private companies will continue. But then what? As far as our society benefited, who care?

The most important thing is that everything now soaring in price including agricultural products which should not be. Everything is in mess.

In my view we can valued our money and there will a tradeoff. That means that we as a people will not be affected but private companies will suffer and the income from these companies will reduce. let it be.

Generally speaking we can argue that our economy is bad. isn't it?

Devaluation doesn't always mean bad economy and also increase imports also doesn't mean bad although I agree that our ultimate goal should be to find the balance between import and exports. But we are not yet there. We have to manufacture many of the goods we currently import and this will take a long time.

For now we have to ask what drives our imports? Imports are driven by increased demand for fuel, agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, inputs for the manufacturing industry, medicine and also consumer goods. Most companies more or less import something to do their business or manufacture something. So in our case, increased imports can mean companies are growing or new companies are entering the market. Even the growing imports in consumer goods means more people are buying these imported items. That is also not bad.

There is another aspect that is also affecting the exchange rate, i.e. increased prices in the global market. In the global market, prices for almost everything have increased due to the covid pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Fuel prices for example have more than tripped. This will have huge effects on all imports (due to increased shipment costs) including on fertilizers. This also means increased prices for agricultural that are produced in Ethiopia.

Ethiopian agriculture has transformed from where it used to be 30 years ago. Our agriculture is currently highly dependent on imported fertilizers. Fertilizer prices have more than doubled internationally and also fuel prices negatively affect the transportation cost of both the fertilizer shipment and also the cost of delivering the agricultural products to the market.

The government currently is trying to build fertilizer manufacturing plants in cooperation with Morocco as Morocco has over 70% of the world's phosphorus and is an absolute monopoly when it comes to fertilizers.

All in all, we should understand that our economy including our agriculture is globalized and global prices will affect even goods that are produced locally. When we start producing enough export goods that match our import demands then we may achieve trade balance which is a long way to go. But if we destroy our current exporting businesses by refusing to devalue the Birr or making Birr strong then we kill the export market and we will never achieve trade balance. More devaluation and weaker Birr means better export!

You also raised about letting companies go bankrupt. That is a bad idea. It will result in too many unemployed youth which will affect the stability of the country and it also means less tax income for the government which in turn means less salaries.

In my view we have no other option than grow, and grow fast. At the same time we must adjust the salaries to reflect the growth and to coup with the weaker Birr. That is the only path we have. Going back to derg era or holding the economy back etc. are the worst thing to do and will result in much higher unemployed youth that will create havoc in the country and in a government that will not be able to pay salaries etc. which all could result in a state collapse.

I think we have come to conclusion that our export goods are not significant which could be influenced by devaluation. Now we are worried for private companies if we valued our money. Indirectly you are telling me it will affect the unemployment rate.

By the way, how many people employed by private companies now? I want the number..

You are worried about fertilizer's price but the matter of the fact having all resources like water, soil, enough arable land, we are still stuck where we have been. Still we can't feed our people. instead of fertilizers we can use different types of manure including animal's waste. Besides it is possible to be productive without using fertilizers. just we can increase the size of the land we are using for production. we can increase 10 times land what we have been using. So fertilizer's issue doesn't hold water.

You said returning back to Derg' s era is a worst case, you said the state could collapse.
let it the state collapse. good for nothing government full of corrupted men. Returning back to Derge is not that simple. everything was very cheap. for example one sheep was sold at 20 birr but now it could be 5000 birr. so can we get one sheep with 20 birr right now, no it is impossible.

You are very much concerned about the private companies, your assumption is just your view but not may be true on the surface.

Let me remind you while I posted about the expensiveness of car in Ethiopia, you told us the the underlying problem is fuel. That doesn't hold water either. You said car luxury, it is not. While others driving their cars, have no moral ground to tell others car as a luxury. it is okay if we destroy all cars in the country and all people start walk on foot.

[temari]

I think we have come to conclusion that our export goods are not significant which could be influenced by devaluation. Now we are worried for private companies if we valued our money. Indirectly you are telling me it will affect the unemployment rate.

By the way, how many people employed by private companies now? I want the number..

You are worried about fertilizer's price but the matter of the fact having all resources like water, soil, enough arable land, we are still stuck where we have been. Still we can't feed our people. instead of fertilizers we can use different types of manure including animal's waste. Besides it is possible to be productive without using fertilizers. just we can increase the size of the land we are using for production. we can increase 10 times land what we have been using. So fertilizer's issue doesn't hold water.

You said returning back to Derg' s era is a worst case, you said the state could collapse.
let it the state collapse. good for nothing government full of corrupted men. Returning back to Derge is not that simple. everything was very cheap. for example one sheep was sold at 20 birr but now it could be 5000 birr. so can we get one sheep with 20 birr right now, no it is impossible.

You are very much concerned about the private companies, your assumption is just your view but not may be true on the surface.

Let me remind you while I posted about the expensiveness of car in Ethiopia, you told us the the underlying problem is fuel. That doesn't hold water either. You said car luxury, it is not. While others driving their cars, have no moral ground to tell others car as a luxury. it is okay if we destroy all cars in the country and all people start walk on foot.

I agree that we have to make much transformation in the agriculture sector and we have been trying but we can do much better. In today's agriculture and with huge population like ours it will be very hard not to use fertilizers. Even if we use alternative fertilizers, the main problem we have is all of your suggestion can only be effectively done by agricultural companies which we luck.

So we need more companies in the agriculture sector and not less. More private companies everywhere is the solution not less.

Currently, the hardest hit by inflation are government employees and those who are still surviving are self-employees or private employees. That is fact! Nobody wants to be a government servant these days specially people from the city want to do their own business. Only those who don't find jobs in the private sector end up in government employment. That is also the reason why our government institutions including city administration offices are full of people who come from rural area and not from cities.

Without private companies and self-employment, 70% of the employment, especially in cities would disappear.

[Abaymado]

You didn't answer my question.how many employed in private sector compared ti governmental agencies? I know Ethiopian Airlines, tele ... have more than 50 000 workers each. what about in private sector? only they hire 10, 15 something like that. Can you give any private sector who have 1000 workers?

All in all the current system is fighting to keep the current situation for someone or wealthy people to keep rich and rich. They will continue milking the country.

By the way, one notable economist said that we can value our birr regardless or World bank and IMF's concern.

[temari]

You didn't answer my question.how many employed in private sector compared ti governmental agencies? I know Ethiopian Airlines, tele ... have more than 50 000 workers each. what about in private sector? only they hire 10, 15 something like that. Can you give any private sector who have 1000 workers?

All in all the current system is fighting to keep the current situation for someone or wealthy people to keep rich and rich. They will continue milking the country.

By the way, one notable economist said that we can value our birr regardless or World bank and IMF's concern.

In Addis Ababa alone there are over 400,000 private businesses who pay taxes. There are still thousands who don’t pay taxes and are unknown by the government. If we only assume a private company on average hires 10 employees then we get 4 million employees. Why do you think close to 70% of residents in Addis Ababa send their kids to private schools which are much expensive? We all know most government employees can’t afford to do that.

Self-employment and private businesses are the backbone of our economy. Even the farmers are self employed. There are only 1.5 to 2 million government employees in the whole country.

[Abaymado]

You didn't answer my question.how many employed in private sector compared ti governmental agencies? I know Ethiopian Airlines, tele ... have more than 50 000 workers each. what about in private sector? only they hire 10, 15 something like that. Can you give any private sector who have 1000 workers?

All in all the current system is fighting to keep the current situation for someone or wealthy people to keep rich and rich. They will continue milking the country.

By the way, one notable economist said that we can value our birr regardless or World bank and IMF's concern.

In Addis Ababa alone there are over 400,000 private businesses who pay taxes. There are still thousands who don’t pay taxes and are unknown by the government. If we only assume a private company on average hires 10 employees then we get 4 million employees. Why do you think close to 70% of residents in Addis Ababa send their kids to private schools which are much expensive? We all know most government employees can’t afford to do that.

Self-employment and private businesses are the backbone of our economy. Even the farmers are self employed. There are only 1.5 to 2 million government employees in the whole country.

Omg, you are the most amazing Biltgna cadre in this forum. you are fighting tooth and nail.
All your information are based on your guess and speculation.
Where did you get:

70% of Addis resident send their children to private school?
where did you get that 4 million people employed in private sector?


haahaha, that is why Ethiopia become middle income country? why is then the government need handout from the West now? Why are the government is begging them?

You are ridiculous cadre. Good job, keep it up.

You know what at Weyane time, there are guys like who preach everybody this empty information to protect and save their regime.

[Abere]

Inflation is soaring largely the Ethiopian economy is more of a consumer than a producer. It is not productive in a sense, less or insignificant exporter of valued products. I am not even sure inherent economic or market rules working in Ethiopia. Things in Ethiopia are quite arbitrary and random. Corruption and money printing are intense - good at printing paper money but bad at economic production. Let us not also forget we are good at manufacturing conflict and war. Look TPLF in Tigray, they are begging food, wasting productive time of the people and the entire country. It is naive to imagine strong economy and currency in a country where Ak47 is like children’s toy. The largest employer is the government, employment criteria and performance evaluation is being a loyalist cadre ,not job output or efficiency based. We are talking an economy that is dead in water, we are not talking a government and its citizen active and lively at work.

[temari]

Omg, you are the most amazing Biltgna cadre in this forum. you are fighting tooth and nail.
All your information are based on your guess and speculation.
Where did you get:

70% of Addis resident send their children to private school?
where did you get that 4 million people employed in private sector?


haahaha, that is why Ethiopia become middle income country? why is then the government need handout from the West now? Why are the government is begging them?

You are ridiculous cadre. Good job, keep it up.

You know what at Weyane time, there are guys like who preach everybody this empty information to protect and save their regime.

Stop being emotional. You don't have to be angry. I'm just telling you the facts. This has nothing to do with Biltsigna. These are not government businesses. I'm a facts guy not emotional guy like you.

Here are the facts:

Video 1: Addis Ababa administration inspected around 440,000 businesses (Note also that the city administration collected over 39 billion birr taxes in just 9 months. That is more than almost all kilils. From where do you think these taxes came from? This also tells you how big the number of private businesses in Addis is. I can also provide a video for that if you want to).

Video 2. Over 65% of students in Addis Ababa go to private schools. Public/government schools only account to 30% to 35% of students.

[Abaymado]

OK our EBS's journalist.
Let me split things into parts.
But first of all our intention or discussion is about the relationship between black market,private companies and the devaluation.
From this stand point I conclude that revaluation could not affect these tiny useless companies.

Even these useless companies couldn't hire more than 10 personals. I am feeling that so many street side mini shops also considered as private companies. Probably these can be very large numbers.

Regarding private schools: I am feeling that most of schools request very low amount of fee, even the government based students can handle it.

Regarding quality of education:
Top quality students are coming out of public schools. In science, students from public schools are more powerful than their counterpart.
Private schools are good only in English. Besides private schools are producing students who are spoiled and affected by many kinds of addicts.

All in all when we conclude these useless private companies can't be affected by the revaluation of money.

but can you tell me any company who hire at least 1000 workers. And in addition, can you enlighten us the salary they paid? I don't think that is not much different from the public school paying. .

[temari]

Ok our EBS journalist.
Let me split every thing into parts.
But first of all our intention or discussion is about the relationship between black market,private companies and devaluation.
From this stand I conclude that devaluation could not affect these tiny usrless companies.

Even these useless companies couldn't hire more thsn 10 personal. I am feeling that so many street dide mini shops also consideted as private companies. Probably these can be very numbers.

Regarding private schools: I am feeling that most of schools request very low amount of fee.

Regarding quality of education:
Top quality students are coming out of public schools. In science public schools more powerful than the private' one።
Orivate schools are good only in English. Besides private schools are producing students who are spoiled and affected by many kinds of addicts.

Small private businesses are too many and even if they hire 10 per business they still hire most of the workforce. As the example in Addis Ababa shows they may hire more than 4 million people in total even though individually they are small. Small business are the backbone of not only Ethiopia but also many countries so this is not surprising.

What do you think these small business sell or do? Most of it has to do with imported goods. They may sell cloths that are produced in Ethiopia but the garment industries import cotton and other materials from abroad. The small businesses that sell food items either import them or if they are produced in Ethiopia then the fertilizer and fuel for transportation is imported. Construction companies import many materials from abroad and if the materials are produced in Ethiopia then the construction factories import different chemicals. Shoe companies import things like Glue and shoe soles. Leather companies import different chemicals to process leather. We can go on and on to show you how small businesses are very much interdependent with imported goods and how their demand for more goods means a demand for more dollars resulting in a devaluation of birr.

Have a nice day!

[Abaymado]

"Small private businesses are too many and even if they hire 10 per business they still hire most of the workforce. As the example in Addis Ababa shows they may hire more than 4 million people in total even though individually they are small. Small business are the backbone of not only Ethiopia but also many countries so this is not surprising.


I am telling you all shops that sells cigarettes and the likes are considered as a private companies. this was not new in Derge time or in Emperor time. they all existed.

What do you think these small business sell or do? Most of it has to do with imported goods. They may sell cloths that are produced in Ethiopia but the garment industries import cotton and other materials from abroad. .

so you are telling me they are selling clothes produced in Ethiopia? I haven't seen one cloth made in Ethiopia. All shops are seen with full of China and Turkey's products. They don't need raw materials for their production. Even they are selling these clothes with expensive money............................................................


The small businesses that sell food items either import them or if they are produced in Ethiopia then the fertilizer and fuel for transportation is imported. Construction companies import many materials from abroad and if the materials are produced in Ethiopia then the construction factories import different chemicals. Shoe companies import things like Glue and shoe soles. Leather companies import different chemicals to process leather. We can go on and on to show you how small businesses are very much interdependent with imported goods and how their demand for more goods means a demand for more dollars resulting in a devaluation of birr.

I accept that leather product are really have substantial base in our country. Even I like to buy our products but the raw materials doesn't affect that much.

Have a nice day!"

You are very amazing!!