In Horn of Africa, a Devastating War Will Rumble on with No Clear Way Out (Will Brown)
The horror-strewn military stalemate in Ethiopia will continue to undermine peace and stability in the Horn of Africa in 2022. The conflict, which started in November 2020, has bewildered observers, defying almost all predictions.
Now Ethiopia is stuck in a tragic deadlock. The Tigrayan Defense Forces retreated out of striking distance of Addis Ababa to the safety of their home region. Neither the rebel army nor the Ethiopian National Defense Force and its allied militia seem to have the strength needed to beat the other decisively.
Instead, the conflict will roll on in ethnic pogroms on both sides and devastating air strikes from Nobel Peace Laureate Abiy Ahmed’s newly acquired drones. Ethiopia is the giant at the heart of the Horn of Africa. Its war is the region’s war. And as long as it continues, the destabilizing effects will be felt from Khartoum to Mogadishu.
Aid blockades against the Tigray region mean that millions are in dire straits and hundreds of thousands are in what the United Nations euphemistically calls “famine-like” conditions. It is hard to see how the humanitarian situation will improve in 2022.
A ceasefire and peace negotiations are desperately needed but a level of violence and venom has been released that makes it hard to see how Africa's second most populous nation could live peacefully with itself again.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-watc ... frica-2022