እኔ የሚሊታሪ ሳይንስ አላቅም፤ ግ ን አጼ ምኒልክ የአድዋን ግጥሚያ በማርች አንድ ቀን ያደጉት አንድም ገበሪው ሰብሉን ወቅቶ ካገባ በኋላና ከዚያም የበልግና የክረምት ዝናብ ከነጀመሩ ቀድሞ ነበር ። ይህ ታይሚንግ ይባላል። የጦር መሪዎች አንዱ ችሎታ ያ ነው።
ስለሆነም ጁንታው የኢትዮጵያ ሰራዊት ሰፊ ሜካናይዘድ ሰራዊት ስለሆነ በዝናብና ጭቃ መንቀስቀሱ ዝግ ስለሚልና እንዲሁም አይሮፕላኖች ፣ ድሮኖች በደመናና ጉም ኢላማቸውን ማየት ስለሚያስቸግራቸው ጁንታው በክረምት ሊዋጋ መወሰኑ ትክክል ነበር። በተለይ የሱ ወጣቶች ስራቸው ለጅም መንገድ ከደል ለገደል መጓዝ ስለሆነ ።
ግን የዚህ የክረምት ዘመቻ ግብ ምን ነበር? በተለይ ከመስከረም በኋላ የኢትዮያ ሰራዊት ንቅናቄ ስለሚፈጥን፣ የድሮኖቹም አይን በጣም ስለሚያይ ጁንታው ምን ግብ ማጠናቀቅ ነበረበት በዛሬ እለት?
ቢያንስ ቢያስ በሶስት ወሩ የዝናብ ወቅት መላ አማራን ይዞ መስከረም ሲጠባ ሙሉ ጦርነቱን ባማራና አፋር እንዲሁም በኒሻንጉልና ወለጋ ለማድረግ ነበር ። ያ ሁሉ ከሽፏል !! እንዲያውም ባየር እና ድሮን የታገዘ ዉጊያ አመቺ በሚሆንበት ድህረ መስከረም ዉጊያዎች ሙሉ ጦርነቱ በትግሬ ምድር ላይ ይሆናል!
በአንድ ቃል ከ10 እስከ 15 000 ሰው ሰውቶ ይህን ሁሉ ዳገትና ቁልቁለት ወርዶ ጁንታው አሁን ተመልሶ ወደ ነበረበት ትግሬ ተራሮች መግባቱ ፍጹም ሞራሉን የሚሰብር፣ የጄኔሬሎቹ ሃይል የመገመትም ሆነ ዉጊያ የመመጠን አቅም እንደ ሌላቸው ያሳያል። ጁንታው የመንግስት ጦር ቢሆን እነዚህ የ4ቱ አርሚ አዛዦች በሙሉ ይባረሩ ነበር ።
በ3 ወር የክረምት ዉጊያ የትግሪ ሰራዊት ከተዋጊነት ውደ ዘራፊ ሽፍታነት የተለወጠ ፣ ሚሽን አልባ፣ አላማ ቢስ ግዙፍ ወሮ በላ ሃይል ሆኖዋል። ራሱንም ላለም አሳውቋል። ያማራ ሊጥ ከመዘረፍ መቀሌ ቁጭ ብሎ የሳማንታን ስንዴ መብላት መች አቃተው? ስንዴ ስንዴና ባንክ ለመስረቅ 15 000 ሰው መግደል ለምን?
ይህን መሰል ድድበት ወደፊት የጦር ተራኪዎች ሊዘግቡት ይገባል!!
ሆረስ አይነ ኩሉ
ትግሬዎች በክረምት መዋጋትን ለምን ፈለጉ? ተሳካላቸው ወይስ ከሸፉ?
Last edited by Horus on 04 Sep 2021, 21:02, edited 1 time in total.
Re: ትግሬዎች በክረምት መዋጋትን ለምን ፈለጉ? ተሳካላቸው ወይስ ከሸፉ?
ትግሬ ወይ ሲያርስ አልከረመ ወይ ጦርነት አልቀናው በከንቱ እረእረጭ ሲል ልጆቹን ከጭቃ ጋር ሲቀብር ከረመ። ወደሽ ከተደፋሽ ቢረግጡሽ አይክፋሽ ይባላል አይደል። የትግሬ ነገር::
Re: ትግሬዎች በክረምት መዋጋትን ለምን ፈለጉ? ተሳካላቸው ወይስ ከሸፉ?
ከትግራይ ውጭ ያለው በተለይም ጦርነት በከፈቱበት በአፋር እና በአማራ ክልሎች ያለው መሬት በሙሉ በክረምት ወቅት በሚኖረው ዝናብ ምክንያት አብዛኛው መሬት በእህል/አዝመራ እና በሳር ስለሚሸፈን ይህም እየተሹለከለኩ ከቦታ ቦታ ለመዘዋወር እና ለመደበቅ እንዲያመቻው እና ከአውሮፕላን እና ከከባድ መስርያ በርቅት እንዳይመቱ ስለሚያደርጋቸው ይህን ግምት ውስጥ በማስገባት ነው፡፡ ጦርነቱን በበጋ ወራት ቢጀምሩት ኖሮ አብዛኛው ቦታ መሬቱ በእህል/አዝመራ እና በሳር ስለማይሸፈን ይህም በመሆኑን እና የትም ቦታ ሂደው መደበቅ ስለማይችሉ ከርቀት በከባድ መሳርያ እና በአውሮፕላን ጥቃት በቀላሉ ለእይታ እና ለኢላማ ስለሚያጋልጣቸው ይህን ለመጠቀም ነው የክረምቱን ወራት ለጦርነት የመረጡት!!
በኢትዮጵያ ታሪክ አብዛኛዎቹ ጦትነት የሚካሆእዱት በበጋ ወራት ነበር፡፡ ፋሽሽት ትግሬዎች ግ ን በመጋ ወራት ጦርነት መግጠም ከርቀት ለከባድ መሳርያ እና ለአውሮፕላን ጥቃት ስለሚያጋልጣቸው ነው ከተለመደው ውጭ በክረምት ጦርነቱን የጀመሩት!! አሁን በቅርቡ የሚታየው ነገር ትግሬዎች የሚደበቁበት አንድም ቦታ እና ዋሻ ስለማይኖራቸው ጦርነትን አቁመናል ብለው እጅ ወደላይ በማለት ለአልም ቃቀፉ ማህበረሰብ ማለቃቀስ ይጀምራሉ!! ምስጥ ፋሽሽት ትግሬዎች መናጢዎች ናቸው!!
Re: ትግሬዎች በክረምት መዋጋትን ለምን ፈለጉ? ተሳካላቸው ወይስ ከሸፉ?
The trump years were the best years for Horn Africa and the second half of Biden’s one term presidency is the ending of the telalaki tplf for good and start the a new chapter of strong and proud Ethiopia (not the ferenjis telalaki and poor country of tplf years), when Ethiopia is not telalaki of the ferenjis the whole Horn African citizens will prosper together in unity… NO more ferenjis sponsored wars between Ethiopia Somalia Eritrea Sudan… No war … instead drill the wealth sitting under the Horn Africa that can make these countries the new like Qatar Saudi Kuwait wealthy nations
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Sam Ebalalehu
- Member
- Posts: 3639
- Joined: 23 Jun 2018, 21:29
Re: ትግሬዎች በክረምት መዋጋትን ለምን ፈለጉ? ተሳካላቸው ወይስ ከሸፉ?
I have a different take on this. In November when they attacked the army stationed in Tigray — as strange as it sounds — they believed they had a shot to make it to Addis. I do not think they counted on support of Ethiopians to accomplish that. What they conspired with Egypt and Sudan one day will be a public knowledge. But it is fair to assume they relied on those two countries.
What would be the role Susan Rice play in that scenario ? One thing was for sure. Biden was not in control regarding Ethiopian politics.
However after ENDF left Mekele the TPLF adventure was not to come to Aratkilo. They are stupid, but not that stupid. The whole drama, sacrificing young kids who are so young, was a call for the international power house to force negotiation that Abiy would accept.
They know if TPLF is totally collapsed , its Amhara hating politics will be buried forever.
For that to not happen , they have sought negotiation badly.
I am confident they are not going to get it.
What would be the role Susan Rice play in that scenario ? One thing was for sure. Biden was not in control regarding Ethiopian politics.
However after ENDF left Mekele the TPLF adventure was not to come to Aratkilo. They are stupid, but not that stupid. The whole drama, sacrificing young kids who are so young, was a call for the international power house to force negotiation that Abiy would accept.
They know if TPLF is totally collapsed , its Amhara hating politics will be buried forever.
For that to not happen , they have sought negotiation badly.
I am confident they are not going to get it.
Re: ትግሬዎች በክረምት መዋጋትን ለምን ፈለጉ? ተሳካላቸው ወይስ ከሸፉ?
Sam,
Let's start with some possible objectives that were/are available to TPLF. What did they want? One of these 3 things - rejoin PP and the Abiy regime with significant power/influence, (2) become an autonomous or semi-autonomous Tigray, (3) take over Addis by force and reestablish a TPLF controlled regime (with OLF & other anti- Abiy groups) . In order to achieve any of these goals, they needed American and EU support.
What a lot of people have not realized is that American policy has changed - for example nation-building, democracy , free and fair election are not the core drivers of its policy any more. America policy requires only three things from these client regimes- that they keep security, that they provide some social services and they do some economic growth. This is now called 'making love to despots'. And, American really believed that Abiy was incapable of stabilizing Ethiopia and the Horn. In addition, Abiy was aggressively building regional alliances that America hates. So US/EU really entertained restoring TPLF to power as regional stabilizer. America also feared that TPLF would and was able to disrupt the whole region.
As we speak, America has lost the game and will soon normalize relation with Abiy because if post-Afghanistan America tries another interventionist adventure, that will effectively end the democrats one term power. So expect America slowly distancing itself from TPLF.
And, if TPLF is doing all these things to gain a bargaining leverage or chips, what is it bargaining for? what does TPLF want? State power is effectively in the hands of Abiy and his party with an ever growing army, security and police. So, realistically TPLF simply wanted to try multiple trials and disruptions as you have said to create some sort of international crisis and thereby some sort of external intervention. That did not happen! will not happen. Tigray is a simple killil like Amara, Oromo, Somai, Afar. Ditto.
America will not destabilize Ethiopia in order to drive China out of Ethiopia because such a move will cause America to lose the whole of Africa.
In short, TPLF is left with 2 options - reconcile with PP minus its criminal elements or return to long guerrilla warfare with still undefined objective. Tigray must first decide whether it want to split from Ethiopia or want to exist within the Ethiopian state system. Until then all it is doing is fool's errand.
Let's start with some possible objectives that were/are available to TPLF. What did they want? One of these 3 things - rejoin PP and the Abiy regime with significant power/influence, (2) become an autonomous or semi-autonomous Tigray, (3) take over Addis by force and reestablish a TPLF controlled regime (with OLF & other anti- Abiy groups) . In order to achieve any of these goals, they needed American and EU support.
What a lot of people have not realized is that American policy has changed - for example nation-building, democracy , free and fair election are not the core drivers of its policy any more. America policy requires only three things from these client regimes- that they keep security, that they provide some social services and they do some economic growth. This is now called 'making love to despots'. And, American really believed that Abiy was incapable of stabilizing Ethiopia and the Horn. In addition, Abiy was aggressively building regional alliances that America hates. So US/EU really entertained restoring TPLF to power as regional stabilizer. America also feared that TPLF would and was able to disrupt the whole region.
As we speak, America has lost the game and will soon normalize relation with Abiy because if post-Afghanistan America tries another interventionist adventure, that will effectively end the democrats one term power. So expect America slowly distancing itself from TPLF.
And, if TPLF is doing all these things to gain a bargaining leverage or chips, what is it bargaining for? what does TPLF want? State power is effectively in the hands of Abiy and his party with an ever growing army, security and police. So, realistically TPLF simply wanted to try multiple trials and disruptions as you have said to create some sort of international crisis and thereby some sort of external intervention. That did not happen! will not happen. Tigray is a simple killil like Amara, Oromo, Somai, Afar. Ditto.
America will not destabilize Ethiopia in order to drive China out of Ethiopia because such a move will cause America to lose the whole of Africa.
In short, TPLF is left with 2 options - reconcile with PP minus its criminal elements or return to long guerrilla warfare with still undefined objective. Tigray must first decide whether it want to split from Ethiopia or want to exist within the Ethiopian state system. Until then all it is doing is fool's errand.