Mereja.Forum

[Blueshift]

TPLF is playing a guerilla fighter attack that enjoys being chased all over the country. TPLF will be constantly moving. Abbiy's military will be overstretched over the long run. TPLF is in Debre something today, and Debre something else tomorrow. What is Abbiy to do ? It is like children ganging up on a bully. I don't believe the war will be over in six months or a year for that matter. Folks, brace yourself for the long run. This will be a bad movie caught in never ending circular plot. Round round they go.

[Hawdian]

Not really.

If ENDF encircles the TPLF inside Amhara and blocks all exits and reinforcement routes while mass recruiting Amhara and others as Liyu, ENDF and militia, it will eliminate those inside Amhara.

Every month, Amhara, Somali need to graduate 20,000 fighters.

Then open Afar front and keep TPLF inside Tigray while cut off from all Ethiopian taxpayers' electricity, water and food (only let in aid not trade), banks...

Then set up new Tigray forces in Amhara region to enter Tigray (limited number esp keep their families in Addis).

Drones and airforce can monitor Tigray borders. Bomb anyone who tries to leave unless civilians.

We can even send massive Eritrean forces as new Tigray Liyu since both speak the same.

Once Americans remove Biden, new Republican president, we can officially send in the ENDF.

Abiy needs to follow such strategy.

[Blueshift]

Hawdian,

Einstein said space is curved. In space, everything is moving. Nothing is stationary. The land of amhara is huge. There is plenty room for movement. All TPLF has to do is move north as in Weldia and west as in Debre something, etc... The Tigrayan fighter is ready to die. Then again, he has no choice. the poor southerner is just looking for a lucrative job of finding TPLF fighters and arresting them on the spot.

[Sadacha Macca]

In the long run, the odds favor Amhara's and their allies more, if you wish to be fair and objective. They have the manpower, the resources, and more allies-Abiy and Eritrea. ENDF is not as strong as it once was, true, it lost tens of thousands of its most experienced men, because they were tigrayans and this shows how much they forcefully, and wrongfully, dominated the institutions of the country. This is the fault of mostly the Oromo and Amhara political elites within the former ruling party, EPRDF, because they allowed it to happen. Anyways, the past is the past, we cannot change it, but what we CAN do is learn from it. This is why the help of the strong Eritrean forces was so crucial, and of course, the Fano/Amhara forces too.
But the ENDF can and will be rebuilt, this time stronger than before, with little to no tigrayans [at least not in the top positions/ranks].

[Hawdian]

Sadacha

You are becoming an objective and none emotional Oromo analyst. Congratulations.

This is the fault of mostly the Oromo and Amhara political elites within the former ruling party, EPRDF, because they allowed it to happen.

Very well said. EPRDF Amhara/Oromo were as fake as the Afghan admin that fled. Once the true ruler was gone, it evaporated. ENDF, too needed reforms before Abiy trusted all the Tigregu Generals.

Amhara and Oromo were kept purely to inflate numbers. No training, no commend, no leadership just militia paid small salaries.

Things are different now and fast changing.

TPLF in Amhara will all die inside Amhara and Tigray doesn't have the resources or means to send a new wave.

Huge miscalculation. It will become all clear soon.

Going forward, new ENDF should be;
A: Eastern
B: Northern
C: Western
D: Southern

Eastern
40% Amhara
15% Oromo
15% Somali

Northern
40% Oromo
15% Amhara and Somali

Western
40% Somali
15% Oromo/Amhara

Reason we should do it this way is we should have the host region (eg east mainly Somali) as the lesser contributor otherwise local militia + over represented ENDF could create a new Tigray/northern Command

[Blueshift]

Sadacha wrote,

In the long run, the odds favor Amhara's and their allies more, if you wish to be fair and objective. They have the manpower, the resources, and more allies-Abiy and Eritrea.

Sadacha, you may be right. But, remember also, TPLF is cornered. Hence, it will fight to the end. Western Tigray or call it Northern Amhara is a land, Tigrayans can not do without. It really means survival to them. A cornered animal is a dangerous animal. That Eritrean factor, I wish you de-factor it out. It is none of our business. Let us just wait and see. Hopefully, civilians on both sides will not pay for the stupidity that includes Abbiy and TPLF itself.

[Sabur]

This is all fvcking propaganda.

Once the head of the TPLF is chopped, the war is over.

That is: Once ALL TPLF leaderships are KILLED, the war is Over.

There is no appetite for Guerrilla Fighting with No Right Cause in this day and age. It is outdated and Dead.

And specially for the Tigrayan People.