https://borkena.com/2021/08/17/nile-dis ... enouement/
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Revelations
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Za-Ilmaknun
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Re: Is the Nile Dispute In Fact Moving Toward a Dénouement? [By Gregory Copley]
"The most immediate threat to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali stemmed from the full-scale civil war being waged against the Government — and against even the concept of Ethiopian unity or the notion of Ethiopia — by two marxist extremist groups, the Tigré (Tigray) People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF, in its many formats).
Neither group represented the majority of either the Tigrean or Oromo peoples. Indeed, the TPLF had been content with the concept of a greater Ethiopian state when it was literally handed control of the national government in July 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet-backed Dergue upon the fall of communism in the Soviet Union. From July 1991 until the collapse of the TPLF control of government in 2018, the TPLF did not oppose Ethiopian unity.
The TPLF and the OLF are not indigenously self-sustaining forces against the national Government, however. Both have support from the Government of Egypt and (in the case of the TPLF) the US, and some other foreign entities, because the wider war is not merely the insurgency within Ethiopia. It relates to the historical demands by Egypt — over centuries — that it be allowed to control the flow of waters of the Blue Nile, which has its origins in Lake Tana, in the Amhara Highlands of Ethiopia."
Neither group represented the majority of either the Tigrean or Oromo peoples. Indeed, the TPLF had been content with the concept of a greater Ethiopian state when it was literally handed control of the national government in July 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet-backed Dergue upon the fall of communism in the Soviet Union. From July 1991 until the collapse of the TPLF control of government in 2018, the TPLF did not oppose Ethiopian unity.
The TPLF and the OLF are not indigenously self-sustaining forces against the national Government, however. Both have support from the Government of Egypt and (in the case of the TPLF) the US, and some other foreign entities, because the wider war is not merely the insurgency within Ethiopia. It relates to the historical demands by Egypt — over centuries — that it be allowed to control the flow of waters of the Blue Nile, which has its origins in Lake Tana, in the Amhara Highlands of Ethiopia."
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Za-Ilmaknun
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Re: Is the Nile Dispute In Fact Moving Toward a Dénouement? [By Gregory Copley]
Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and Amhara Region militia groups had begun to re-group to defend both Ethiopia and the particularly embattled Amhara population. The Amhara were being assaulted by the TPLF and OLF in a consistent and enduring campaign, explicitly genocidal in nature, because the Amhara were seen to be the core, or glue, which defined the concept of Ethiopianness.
But it should be stressed that the targets of the TPLF and the OLF (and particularly its Shene group) also included Tigreans and Oromos and all other Ethiopians if they identified themselves as “Ethiopian” or as Ethiopian Orthodox Christians. Significantly, the TPLF and OLF also targeted the predominantly Muslim Afar people, who had consistently regarded themselves as Ethiopians as well as priding themselves in their distinct Afar identity.
The Ethiopian Government of Prime Minister Abiy, along with the Amhara people (who had long been prevented from forming a meaningful militia to rival the TPLF and Oromo militias), had been slow to act in their own defense. Nonetheless, by mid-August 2021, the ENDF and Amhara militia were preparing to cut off TPLF forces which had over-extended themselves with their assaults deep into the Amhara and Afar regions. The Afar population had reacted strenuously against the mass assaults from TPLF militia forces — including many child soldiers abducted into the TPLF — and had savagely driven the TPLF out of Afar Region by mid-August 2021.
But it should be stressed that the targets of the TPLF and the OLF (and particularly its Shene group) also included Tigreans and Oromos and all other Ethiopians if they identified themselves as “Ethiopian” or as Ethiopian Orthodox Christians. Significantly, the TPLF and OLF also targeted the predominantly Muslim Afar people, who had consistently regarded themselves as Ethiopians as well as priding themselves in their distinct Afar identity.
The Ethiopian Government of Prime Minister Abiy, along with the Amhara people (who had long been prevented from forming a meaningful militia to rival the TPLF and Oromo militias), had been slow to act in their own defense. Nonetheless, by mid-August 2021, the ENDF and Amhara militia were preparing to cut off TPLF forces which had over-extended themselves with their assaults deep into the Amhara and Afar regions. The Afar population had reacted strenuously against the mass assaults from TPLF militia forces — including many child soldiers abducted into the TPLF — and had savagely driven the TPLF out of Afar Region by mid-August 2021.
Re: Is the Nile Dispute In Fact Moving Toward a Dénouement? [By Gregory Copley]
Some highlights!
"TPLF troops — now calling themselves the “Tigray Defense Force” to distance themselves from the growing evidence of TPLF genocide and other atrocities — in the Amhara Region had, by August 16, 2021, been cut off from their Tigrean counterparts because the ENDF had seized the Korem-Maichew highway corridor which connects northern Wollo with Tigré. This meant that all the TPLF fighters in Alamata, Kobo, Woldiya, Mersa, Lalibela (in North Wollo) and those in Gayint (South Gondar, which abuts North Wollo to its east) could be surrounded. They could now either fight and die or give themselves up to the Amhara special forces or the Ethiopian military (ENDF)."
"...But Dr Abiy .... little doubt that he had worked to avoid having Federal troops attack, or respond to attacks by, Tigreans and Oromo extremists to demonstrate that it was not the Federal Government which was the aggressor. In this regard, he mirrored the late Emperor Haile Selassie I who, in the 1930s, pulled back from attacking the invading Italian forces, trusting (until too late) that the League of Nations would force Italy to withdraw. So it is now clear that Dr Abiy had, by mid-August 2021, begun to cease appeasement approaches, which had patently not helped. He was now on a war footing, especially given the uncompromising nature of the TPLF and OLF-Shene violence against..."
"..Prime Minister Abiy has reluctantly realized that the US was not his ally. As a result, he has begun to act in defiance of US pressure. This has been helped by the fact that the Russian and Turkish governments, among others, have been supporting and revitalizing the Ethiopian military capability to the point where it can act decisively against domestic insurgency (if not decisively against Egyptian threats)..."
"..Ethiopian Government has no option other than to directly and effectively suppress the TPLF and OLF insurgencies, and to build on the proposals to re-build confederal ties with Eritrea and Djibouti.[Somalia not Djibouti?] Prime Minister Abiy, to do this effectively, would need to deliver on his promise to replace or overhaul the 1994 communist Constitution of Ethiopia and put in place a true market economy which would include the privatization of property..."
"TPLF troops — now calling themselves the “Tigray Defense Force” to distance themselves from the growing evidence of TPLF genocide and other atrocities — in the Amhara Region had, by August 16, 2021, been cut off from their Tigrean counterparts because the ENDF had seized the Korem-Maichew highway corridor which connects northern Wollo with Tigré. This meant that all the TPLF fighters in Alamata, Kobo, Woldiya, Mersa, Lalibela (in North Wollo) and those in Gayint (South Gondar, which abuts North Wollo to its east) could be surrounded. They could now either fight and die or give themselves up to the Amhara special forces or the Ethiopian military (ENDF)."
"...But Dr Abiy .... little doubt that he had worked to avoid having Federal troops attack, or respond to attacks by, Tigreans and Oromo extremists to demonstrate that it was not the Federal Government which was the aggressor. In this regard, he mirrored the late Emperor Haile Selassie I who, in the 1930s, pulled back from attacking the invading Italian forces, trusting (until too late) that the League of Nations would force Italy to withdraw. So it is now clear that Dr Abiy had, by mid-August 2021, begun to cease appeasement approaches, which had patently not helped. He was now on a war footing, especially given the uncompromising nature of the TPLF and OLF-Shene violence against..."
"..Prime Minister Abiy has reluctantly realized that the US was not his ally. As a result, he has begun to act in defiance of US pressure. This has been helped by the fact that the Russian and Turkish governments, among others, have been supporting and revitalizing the Ethiopian military capability to the point where it can act decisively against domestic insurgency (if not decisively against Egyptian threats)..."
"..Ethiopian Government has no option other than to directly and effectively suppress the TPLF and OLF insurgencies, and to build on the proposals to re-build confederal ties with Eritrea and Djibouti.[Somalia not Djibouti?] Prime Minister Abiy, to do this effectively, would need to deliver on his promise to replace or overhaul the 1994 communist Constitution of Ethiopia and put in place a true market economy which would include the privatization of property..."