After many military setback in Eritrea and in particular after the liberation of Nakfa and Afabet in 1988 by Shaebia, the derg was coerced to vacate the entire western Eritrea including major cities of (Tesseney, Aqurdet and Barentu).In addition to the western part of Eritrea, he also withdrew the few military garrison who were deployed in Tigray and redeploy them either to Eritrea to defend the Keren,Asmara Road and of course the jewel of the Red Sea the city of Massawa. He fed and armed his soldiers through air corridor connecting the heartland of Ethiopia to Eritrea. This scenario put the leeches in awkward position because until that day, they were fighting to liberate Tigray from Ethiopia and Mengistu just fulfilled their wish by vacating his entire army from Tigray. Afterward, The TPLF baptized itself as EPRDF to be an inclusive party from all Ethiopians , tough, it was the TPLF which was maker and shaker of the newly baptized party. The rest is history.
Dr abiye just realized that Tigray is not strategically important to deplete state resources and sacrifice soldiers life to control it, hence he like mengistu left Tigray to the woyane. What it woyane next move is Any ones guess. One thing is sure though, The poor tigrians are sacrificed for the ego of some few low IQ individuals.
His eminence!
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Deqi-Arawit
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Re: Dr Abiye just pulled what Mengistu Hailemariam did in 1989
Well as you said it was a well calculated move. Abiy eases the international pressure as well. There won't be the feared sanction in any new future but the TPLF has few options that it will play
1- it will continue to pressure international community by starving its own people and thrive through it
2- it will arm & train reneged groups to weaken the central authority. OLF, Qmant, Benishangul to mention a few
3- it will list itself in the Sudnanese and Egyption effort related to the Gerd Dam
The move also forced TPLF and its supporters to change their tones. The communique that is spreading to their supporters ordered them to limit their big mouth and not to mention people in general be it Amhara or Eritrea. In the case of Amhara, they were ordered to switch the "Amhara" and infiriority ridden insult to more of "Gonder Elits" and in the case of Eritrea to focus more on "Issayas on his cliques". would that work? it remain to be seen.
I am sure Abiy would like TPLF to engage him in the conventional warfare in the future so that he can route them as he did in November last year. But TPLF won't opt to that. They want him to fight in Tigray so that they can sabotage his effort by using the entire population. TPLF now can not recruit or create surrogate organization from its immediate neigbhour (Amhara) to find collaborators thanks to its supporters big mouth and the atrocities they committed.
chances are high that moral amongst tigrayans will degrade when poverty lurks due to economic blockage. as a result, tigrayan youth will flock for a better life and abiy can venture back anytime so long us he is able to ckeckmate renegade groups in Oromia, Benishangule, Sudanese/Egyptian threat
RIP Abay Tigray
Dedebit is always Dedebit
1- it will continue to pressure international community by starving its own people and thrive through it
2- it will arm & train reneged groups to weaken the central authority. OLF, Qmant, Benishangul to mention a few
3- it will list itself in the Sudnanese and Egyption effort related to the Gerd Dam
The move also forced TPLF and its supporters to change their tones. The communique that is spreading to their supporters ordered them to limit their big mouth and not to mention people in general be it Amhara or Eritrea. In the case of Amhara, they were ordered to switch the "Amhara" and infiriority ridden insult to more of "Gonder Elits" and in the case of Eritrea to focus more on "Issayas on his cliques". would that work? it remain to be seen.
I am sure Abiy would like TPLF to engage him in the conventional warfare in the future so that he can route them as he did in November last year. But TPLF won't opt to that. They want him to fight in Tigray so that they can sabotage his effort by using the entire population. TPLF now can not recruit or create surrogate organization from its immediate neigbhour (Amhara) to find collaborators thanks to its supporters big mouth and the atrocities they committed.
chances are high that moral amongst tigrayans will degrade when poverty lurks due to economic blockage. as a result, tigrayan youth will flock for a better life and abiy can venture back anytime so long us he is able to ckeckmate renegade groups in Oromia, Benishangule, Sudanese/Egyptian threat
RIP Abay Tigray
Dedebit is always Dedebit
Re: Dr Abiye just pulled what Mengistu Hailemariam did in 1989
The difference is Abiy rushed to flee the north because the south is becoming ungovernable. Mengstu didn't have a south problem.
OLF, OFC and (pro OLF) PP structure just announced Transitional Regional Government. This is the last straw that'll force a UN security resolution making Arat Kilo irrelevant.
This is the mistake many make on this forum. This is not one region vs. the rest of the country. This is multiple regions having issues against Arat Kilo and having issues among regions. That's how I see this. I could be wrong but that's what it looks like to me.
OLF, OFC and (pro OLF) PP structure just announced Transitional Regional Government. This is the last straw that'll force a UN security resolution making Arat Kilo irrelevant.
This is the mistake many make on this forum. This is not one region vs. the rest of the country. This is multiple regions having issues against Arat Kilo and having issues among regions. That's how I see this. I could be wrong but that's what it looks like to me.
Last edited by eden on 02 Jul 2021, 11:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Deqi-Arawit
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Re: Dr Abiye just pulled what Mengistu Hailemariam did in 1989
Option number one is what they are opting to take, because option number two and three are impossible to implement at this juncture of time.Misraq wrote: ↑02 Jul 2021, 11:30Well as you said it was a well calculated move. Abiy eases the international pressure as well. There won't be the feared sanction in any new future but the TPLF has few options that it will play
1- it will continue to pressure international community by starving its own people and thrive through it
2- it will arm & train reneged groups to weaken the central authority. OLF, Qmant, Benishangul to mention a few
3- it will list itself in the Sudnanese and Egyption effort related to the Gerd Dam
The move also forced TPLF and its supporters to change their tones. The communique that is spreading to their supporters ordered them to limit their big mouth and not to mention people in general be it Amhara or Eritrea. In the case of Amhara, they were ordered to switch the "Amhara" and infiriority ridden insult to more of "Gonder Elits" and in the case of Eritrea to focus more on "Issayas on his cliques". would that work? it remain to be seen.
I am sure Abiy would like TPLF to engage him in the conventional warfare in the future so that he can route them as he did in November last year. But TPLF won't opt to that. They want him to fight in Tigray so that they can sabotage his effort by using the entire population. TPLF now can not recruit or create surrogate organization from its immediate neigbhour (Amhara) to find collaborators thanks to its supporters big mouth and the atrocities they committed.
chances are high that moral amongst tigrayans will degrade when poverty lurks due to economic blockage. as a result, tigrayan youth will flock for a better life and abiy can venture back anytime so long us he is able to ckeckmate renegade groups in Oromia, Benishangule, Sudanese/Egyptian threat
RIP Abay Tigray
Dedebit is always Dedebit
Lets examine option number two.
Geographically speaking, Tigray is under quarantine because their immediate neighbors are Eritrea, Amhara and Afars, hence I don't see the logic that they are going to assist and arm Oromos,benshangule and Qmant without crossing Amhara territory
with time, Option number three is highly likely, they could be the lackey of Egypt and function as a commando unit and bomb the dam to embarrass the PM.
Furthermore, I don't think, the pressure of the Western powers on Dr abiye will abate with time, because their immediate concern are not the so called suffering of Tigray as they claim to be, but they are using the Tigray crises as a cover to blackmail and arm twist the PM to make some concession to the Egyptian demand not fulfill the dam with out its consent. If you recall, it was during the presidency of Donald Trump the Americans started to punish Ethiopia not to take loan from the IMF and world bank.
His eminence!
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Sam Ebalalehu
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Re: Dr Abiye just pulled what Mengistu Hailemariam did in 1989
Yes, Eden, you are wrong. Those you mentioned are not capable of forming “ transitional provincial government.” Tigreans pretty much can coalesce together against “ imagined” enemy. The recent news however seems to refute even that understanding. The Oromos however being large and scattered in large area of Ethiopia cannot form the cushion the politicians said they have.
The TPLF politicians serious mistake is they discount people as insignificant. They overexaggerate the importance of politicians have. You are one product of the TPLF misguided belief.
Just weeks ago election was held in Oromia in which those you mentioned abstaining. Oromia is not burning because of it . Life is going on as usual.
You do not see where is our Merrara, Ayatollah, Dauid Ibsa kind of demonstration.
By the way , Eden, you practically live on ER, and you should have sharpend by now your senses so that you differentiate the real from the fake news.
That provincial government you are talking About is fake news.
The TPLF politicians serious mistake is they discount people as insignificant. They overexaggerate the importance of politicians have. You are one product of the TPLF misguided belief.
Just weeks ago election was held in Oromia in which those you mentioned abstaining. Oromia is not burning because of it . Life is going on as usual.
You do not see where is our Merrara, Ayatollah, Dauid Ibsa kind of demonstration.
By the way , Eden, you practically live on ER, and you should have sharpend by now your senses so that you differentiate the real from the fake news.
That provincial government you are talking About is fake news.
Re: Dr Abiye just pulled what Mengistu Hailemariam did in 1989
Wedi arawit,
Why worry. These guys can take care of themselves. Didn't the whole world witness the biggest upset in all military contest where the largest 2 militaries in Africa with their Arab sponsors were decapitated by a stroke of genius military maneuver? Leave it it to the experts and watch and learn how it's done. Even the Israelis are sending delegation to figure out how this upset by David against Goliath was executed.
Why worry. These guys can take care of themselves. Didn't the whole world witness the biggest upset in all military contest where the largest 2 militaries in Africa with their Arab sponsors were decapitated by a stroke of genius military maneuver? Leave it it to the experts and watch and learn how it's done. Even the Israelis are sending delegation to figure out how this upset by David against Goliath was executed.
Deqi-Arawit wrote: ↑02 Jul 2021, 11:03
Dr abiye just realized that Tigray is not strategically important to deplete state resources and sacrifice soldiers life to control it, hence he like mengistu left Tigray to the woyane. What it woyane next move is Any ones guess. One thing is sure though, The poor tigrians are sacrificed for the ego of some few low IQ individuals.
His eminence!
Re: Dr Abiye just pulled what Mengistu Hailemariam did in 1989
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Weyane.is.dead
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Re: Dr Abiye just pulled what Mengistu Hailemariam did in 1989
Tplf has no option but to surrender. Militarily incapacitated and devoid of any supply or escape route it will crumble. Tigrans expectation will not match reality. They will wake up and realise tplf can not deliver anything. Soon you will see them abandon Tigray for greener pastures. The ones that remain will suffer worse than the people of gaza. Tplf won't be able to feed or control the youth and friction will ensue. They will end up canibalizing each other.
Abiy on the other hand will have trained millions and will storm Tigray at will. Basically Tplf is sitting duck.
Ethiopia is facing a huge threat from Egypt. Hence it was wise to leave the chigaram kilil. There's no threat coming from tplf. It's only good at celebrating and rolling on the streets.
Abiy on the other hand will have trained millions and will storm Tigray at will. Basically Tplf is sitting duck.
Ethiopia is facing a huge threat from Egypt. Hence it was wise to leave the chigaram kilil. There's no threat coming from tplf. It's only good at celebrating and rolling on the streets.
Re: Dr Abiye just pulled what Mengistu Hailemariam did in 1989
It looks you are still in your dream and fantansy world. The fact on the ground is TDF has already broken the backbone of Abiy and Isaias. From now onwards TPLF is on the driving seat and every body must follow the leader!
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Weyane.is.dead
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Re: Dr Abiye just pulled what Mengistu Hailemariam did in 1989
Delusional weyane rodent, don't gloat too much or Eritreans will come back and make you roll on the floor again. Shetati sasah kodar arayi kunti.
Re: Dr Abiye just pulled what Mengistu Hailemariam did in 1989
The delusional weyannes really thought they broke the back bone of two armies (Ethiopian and Eritrea) at the same time entering their devastated cities with bajajs and three wheelers. I like that level of stuuuupidity and dilusions since it is the same mind effect that let them get chased from Arat killo and their leaders killed point blank on their head.
Three types of war conducted
1) conventional - tplf routed and run to the mountain losing much of its liyu hayel and 70% of the arsenal it took from Ethiopian army
2) Gorella Warfare - still tplf lost quite significanlty
3) Gorella-Civilian morphed combat - TPLF thrived on this and gained some upper-hand since the army can't fight such fights hence withdrawal is a choice of tactic
Weyanne cannot deploy the 3rd tactic outside its turf. It need collaborators and Amhara won't collaborate as it did in the 1980s. So chances are high Tigray will be starved and Abiy can walk in and out anytime killing leadership Tigray produces
Three types of war conducted
1) conventional - tplf routed and run to the mountain losing much of its liyu hayel and 70% of the arsenal it took from Ethiopian army
2) Gorella Warfare - still tplf lost quite significanlty
3) Gorella-Civilian morphed combat - TPLF thrived on this and gained some upper-hand since the army can't fight such fights hence withdrawal is a choice of tactic
Weyanne cannot deploy the 3rd tactic outside its turf. It need collaborators and Amhara won't collaborate as it did in the 1980s. So chances are high Tigray will be starved and Abiy can walk in and out anytime killing leadership Tigray produces