temari wrote: ↑02 Jun 2021, 04:31
Never start a war because you never know how it will end. War has its own dynamics, its own "life" and the calculation you made before the start of the war can quickly and dramatically change and the hunter becomes the hunted. War should be something that is forced upon you and has left you with nothing but to defend yourself because others started it but never start a war yourself.
General Tsadkan just confirmed how TPLF failed to adhere to this wisdom of to NEVER START A WAR.
TPLF General Tsadkan confirmed that TPLF started the war and that it attacked the northern command and confiscated the heavy weaponry from the northern command thinking that TPLF now controls most of Ethiopia's heavy weaponry and is in the position to win any war. But the dynamics of the war changed in days and Tsadkan said that TPLF forces were attacked massively from all sides by Ethiopian, Amhara and Eritrean forces and the drones did the rest. Just in days after the start of the war TPLF army was destroyed and left with zero mechanized divisions. TPLF fighters and its leaders became the hunted, running for their lives in a matter of days.
TPLF bragged on TV to act like the Israel army in the 6 day Israel-Arab war but ended up defeated in days like the Arabs. Indeed, never start a war because you never know how it will end.
If this story is true, then it proves one more time that the saying planing is the key in any kind of undertakings, which a war is one one of them, to succeed.
That is why we say those who tried to learn and gain knowledge will not get trapped in the making of their own failure. This is a historic humiliation for the people they claimed to represent, stemming from a sheer volume of ignorance.
I remember a post I shared on this forum before a number of years about social system. Social system is not, according to the science, static and deterministic, it is dynamic and stochastic, which makes it very difficult to treat using the knowledge we have adapted in the fields of natural system. A natural system on which natural science is based is deterministic and static.
If the man would have first tried to learn the science and gain knowledge before considering himself an accomplished war planner (with so much boasting on the part of the TPLF), he could have spared his people such a calamity, specially those high ranking TPLF functionaries themselves, who are now declared a dust in the wind.
In any sort of undertakings the planing is the key, the execution will be just a matter of time.
If he knew about science then he could have taken all those factors mentioned in this report in advance and plan in advance the possible remediation accordingly. This is war, a matter of death and life for thousands if not millions.
War is an undertaking of a social system, which will render itself to stochastic and dynamic theory. You can't say from the outset, what the consequences and subsequent consequences of a given action could lead to. You can only plan the possible remedy of an adverse outcome in advance, taking all the possible factors and scenario analysis.
Did they do any kind of scenario analysis before risking that much for themselves and the body they claimed to represent? According to this interview they did absolutely no such thing. That is why it ended in such calamity for them.
If they start war and never can say how the consequences would look like at the some stage down the road, then they should have stipulated and made available as a course of action for all the stakeholders to remedy the calamity that has befallen them.
If drone is indeed used, a good planer would take this into consideration as a possible scenario and try to postulate a rational reaction to that case. If someone considers himself a military guru, didn't the person knew drones can be used in the modern era of military entrepreneurship? If he didn't know about that how he felt himself someone qualified to undertake such a business in the first place? For such a failure of this magnitude someone should be hanged by his own camp, not the enemy camp.
If the different units they complain about now might have not been taken into consideration at the planning stage, then they were already from a different planet and their devastating defeat was not a surprise, at least in my view. It was known that Tigray had issues with the neighboring Amhara region, and TPLF knew well in advance it has unsettled issues with the neighboring Eritrea and TPLF knew well it was starting the war against the ENDF and the country will be forced to mobilize any resources it has at its disposal to defend the country.
How is a military personnel ready to declare a blitz-krieg on a big country like Ethiopia will fail the possible alliances of forces once the war has been ignited among the forces that it has been having issues with each of them in forefield, according to its own admition?
This is a double defeat for the People of Tigray, who rallied behind such bunch of semi-illiterate collections, I think.
Now blaming Eritrea, Amhara militia, drones, etc is just a lazy excuse, you brought upon yourself, blinded by your greed and dishonesty you crafted to rule the Ethiopian people for decades. It backfired on you, as simple as that.
. That is exactly what I was saying. Siad Barre never thought that the Russians and the Cubans would come to help Ethiopia. See, war has its own dynamics which you never see beforehand. Once you start it, it will unfold its own dynamics and its own "life" which you have no control of. You don't know which actors will be involved and change the dynamics against you. That is exactly what I'm talking about. And most importantly you don't know how many years your people will be suffering because of your stupid adventure. In the case of Somalia it is many decades and in the case of Tigray it is 7 months and counting and hopefully it will end very soon. Hence, the safest option is to never start a war in the first place. War is a tempting adventure and if not resisted it can quickly turn into a worst nightmare.