It has been 3-4 days since Abiye is seen in public. what is going on ? I know his problems are mounting by the day and I am sure he is not sleeping these days. For the past 2 years now , the country is basically sinking from one problem to another be it political, social ,economic and others.
We can say some of the problems are Abiy's own creation, some are being done by anti-Ethiopia forces in and out of the country and some are done by ethnic strife, religious discourse, economic hardships, lack of rule of law, disasters from mother nature, etc.
Abiy's problem emanates from 2 basic issues. One he is so young and the second one is his lack of any experience and knowledge of issues. These two issues would have been masked by surrounding him with experienced professionals and good intention-ed people. For example if a person is sick, he/she seeks the advice of a doctor, same with someone who has a legal issues, he/she goes to a lawyer. Looking at Abiye advisors, most have no experience nor clue about the subject they are supposed to advice him. That's why he is not given any good advice. He is surrounded by Political hacks and cadres.
Politically, the country is sliding down toward the anarchy road. Abiye had almost 95% public support 2 years ago. Today we can not argue his approval among Ethiopians has deteriorated so fast. His numbers are so bad in Oromia and Tigrai. Not as bad these two but his number are down significantly also in Amhara and Southern regions. Addis residents are now overwhelmingly frustrated by the administration of its affairs by its Mayors and the federal government. The coming regional election is Tigrai is a huge pain on the side of Abiy and a serious one.
The fast closing of the space for opposition Parties. Lack of any serious constitutional reforms, the serious lack of independent Judiciary, lack human rights, lack of any sensible law and order. It is heartbreaking to see that in this era that released either on bail or freed by the courts, suspects are still kept in prison by the police in disregard of the court decision. Taking these suspect to another court with the same charge is a slap in the face for Abiye and his administration. Some are even not charged at all after 45 days in jail and released on bail or let go free in total disregard of their constitutional right. I sometime shake my head when Abiye talk about rule of the law while his Police and Attorney General office disregard and disrespect the same law in public without any shame.
Economically, the numbers are not looking good. It was not good in the first place before COVID and the sad disturbances in Oromia and other Southern regions where Billions of birr worth of investments burned to the ground. Just the sheer utter destruction in Oromia where local officials, law enforcement and security people were involved in the mayhem took the air out of Abiy's usual "all is good" sermon, he kept giving on TV every day while planting trees every other day. I was wondering about his obsession of doing these planting trees even on official visits to other countries , was it his love for nature or his belief of "green revolution" , now I am more inclined to believe he is doing it to relieve himself from the stress of the mounting problems. It might be a cry from within, out of the stress and mayhem surrounding him. I feel so sorry for the guy and what he can is fix what he messed up. The economic hardship is getting worse by the day for ordinary Ethiopians. it is just unsustainable.
Our diplomacy and foreign policy had never been in shambles and this bad. One doesn't have to be expert to see the disintegration of IGAD as an organisation which Ethiopia led and harnessed for much of its existence. All IGAD countries are not happy with us. Kenya, Uganda Somaliland, Dijbouti, South Sudan and now Sudan are all angry with us. Our dam diplomacy is something , history will judge in the future. It was so messed up in the early stages by Abiye . It seems he is trying to reverse course which is good and we are all behind him. The problem is now US, Egypt and frankly speaking most countries sees clearly the weak position of Abiye is Ethiopia while his problem is mounting by the day. A weak leader in a troubled country like Ethiopia will have hard time to push and convince other world leaders in negotiations. On foreign policy Abiye gets and F.
Abiye needs to make drastic changes first my removing people around him specially advisory positions and not "recycle" his pals. Bringing in fresh blood , people who are not party members and or cadres. The bench mark should be experience, good faith ,loyal to Ethiopia and the constitution. This has to be done in economic, foreign affairs and security positions. He needs to really stop thinking he "knows it all" attitude. Stop the sermons on TV and go to work. I seriously think Abiye can make it and change course of his administration and country but he has to admit his failures and sincerely try to fix them. I am also scared that the clowns around him are feeding him bad information. These clowns will jump ship any time they see it sinking which some are very obviously doing these days.
I pray that Abiye wakes up and change course for the sake of his administration and Ethiopia, our beloved country.