Dr. Abiy’s Next Task: Deflating the Hyperinflated Ego of Shabiya
By Fayyis Oromia*
It is my hope that Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed, who has already played a significant role in deflating the egos of anti-Oromo forces, will now turn his attention to the inflated ego of Shabiya. This force, which believes it triumphed over the Ethiopian Defense Forces on the battlefield, failed to acknowledge the true circumstances that favored its rise. Ethiopia’s military was in disarray due to Mengistu Haile Mariam’s erratic leadership and the manipulative influence of foreign powers, not because of any inherent superiority of Shabiya.
No Oromo nationalist can forget how the three historically dominant Habesha forces — the Neftegna, Shabiya, and Woyane — have consistently opposed the Oromo cause. These factions, particularly hostile toward the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), acted with the support of economic and military power to suppress the Oromo people. They mocked the Oromo, perpetuating the illusion that their numerical and military advantage meant they were inherently superior, an assumption that was both arrogant and deeply flawed.
Over time, the Oromo people began to fight back, securing a degree of freedom from the domination of these forces. However, they have yet to fully break free from the continuing influence of hybrid powers. Today, Oromo nationalists, inspired by the OLF’s spirit of bilisumma (freedom), continue their struggle across three fronts: as armed resistance (OLA), as political opposition (OFC), and within the current regime (OPP). Even Dr. Abiy, who initially betrayed the Oromo cause, now appears to be aligning himself with the OLF. Having deflated the egos of both the Neftegna and the Woyane, it seems likely that he will soon confront the inflated ego of Shabiya, potentially reclaiming Assab — if not the entirety of Eritrea.
A recent interview with General Teshome Gemechu raised some interesting legal points, particularly regarding the status of the Red Sea port of Assab, which he argues rightfully belongs to Ethiopia. He contends that the Woyane regime, which oversaw Eritrea’s independence, lacked the legal mandate to legitimize such a decision. While General Teshome’s argument about Assab is compelling, it overlooks the larger issue: the entire territory of Eritrea was ceded through this same illegitimate process. If Assab can be claimed on legal grounds, then, by extension, one might argue that all of Eritrea was unlawfully surrendered.
Given these considerations, it is not legally or historically far-fetched for Dr. Abiy to pursue the reintegration of Eritrea, not just Assab. After all, countless Oromo soldiers sacrificed their lives during the Eritrean conflict. Reclaiming Eritrea could thus align with the long-term interests of the Oromo people. Moreover, one might ask whether cities with Oromo-rooted names, such as Asmara and Barentu, do not belong within Oromia’s future political framework.
At present, both the Woyane (the “Fox”) and the Neftegna (the “Hyena”) are gravely weakened. It appears to be the right time for Dr. Abiy to confront the last remaining beast — the Wolf (Shabiya). Recently, reports have emerged suggesting that these three historical enemies of the Oromo — along with the OLF, symbolized as the Lion — are seeking to cooperate against Dr. Abiy and his administration. Yet, their true aim, under the guise of opposition to Abiy, is to reconquer Oromia and reoccupy Finfinne. Despite Dr. Abiy’s past betrayals, when it comes to confronting these three forces, all Oromo nationalists and oppressed nations must unite to prevent them from regaining control of Oromia.
The neo-Neftegna forces are now claiming victory over the OLF, similar to the narrative they constructed about their struggle against the TPLF. They portray their ongoing battle with the OLF and the Oromo people as a continuation of their centuries-old war against the so-called “16th-century Galla migration” and the rise of Oromummà. In effect, they have declared war on the entire Oromo nation. This is akin to a Hyena foolishly challenging a Lion — only to be mercilessly defeated. The Hyena has no chance this time, and soon enough, it will be relegated to the dustbin of history. The next target must be the Wolf.
Dr. Abiy, having successfully dealt with the Neftegna and the Woyane, must now finalize his negotiations with the OLA and establish a transitional government in Oromia. This would create the necessary political stability for him to tackle Shabiya, which continues to back the extremist forces of the Neftegna.
Reflections on Ethiopia’s Revolutions and Elites
The history of Ethiopia’s revolutions — in 1974, 1991, and 2018 — has been marked by tragic betrayals, with each revolution hijacked by dictatorial elites representing different ethnic factions. In 1974, the Amhara-dominated Derg seized power; in 1991, the Tigray-led Woyane took control; and in 2018, the Oromo-led Biltsigina (Abiy Ahmed’s political faction) reversed the gains made by the previous revolutions. All three regimes were authoritarian in nature, promising freedom and equality but ultimately entrenching systems of oppression.
To be fair, each revolution had its democratic voices — Amharas who resisted the Derg, Tigrayans who opposed Woyane, and Oromo nationalists challenging Biltsigina. It is imperative that the next revolution in Ethiopia builds a truly democratic system that respects the rights of all peoples, particularly those who have historically been marginalized.
Why Did Democratic Leaders Become Dictators?
It is ironic that each of the three revolutionary leaders — Mengistu Haile Mariam, Meles Zenawi, and Abiy Ahmed — began their political careers as reformers, only to end as authoritarian figures. Mengistu’s initial promise of reform in 1974 morphed into dictatorship; Meles had a vision in 1991, but his government became increasingly repressive; and Abiy, hailed as a messiah in 2018, has similarly turned into a reactionary leader.
The root cause of this transformation can be traced to what I call the “Neftegna virus,” disguised as Ethiopiawinet (Ethiopian nationalism). This ideology, which has historically served the interests of Amhara elites, gradually ensnared each of these leaders.
The process unfolded in five stages:
- Capturing the leader’s attention.
- Indoctrinating them with the ideology of Ethiopiawinet.
- Romanticizing Amaranet (Amhara nationalism) under this banner.
- Enslaving their minds.
- Using them as instruments of Amhara dominance.
As a result, all three leaders — Mengistu, Meles, and Abiy — who began as democratic revolutionaries, ended up serving reactionary, elitist agendas.
On Oromo Unity and the Struggle Ahead
Prime Minister Abiy has cracked down on the OLF, to the satisfaction of Oromophobic elements within Ethiopian society. However, history shows that the Oromo have never been defeated by external forces; only internal betrayal has weakened them. Each of the last three dictators, though Oromo by birth, used Oromo collaborators to subjugate their own people. The OLF resisted them all, but its efforts were undermined by internal divisions.
Oromo unity remains a central pillar of the struggle. Two primary perspectives exist within the Oromo movement:
- Unity-Oriented: This faction views the Oromo as the original Cushites, supporting unity within a liberated, Oromo-led Ethiopia.
- Liberation-Oriented: This group focuses on the 19th-century conquest of Oromia and advocates for full independence before any regional union.
- The Ambivalent Middle: Moderates who favor federalism with autonomy but oppose full independence. However, this position is losing ground as the liberation movement strengthens.
Conclusion: Onward Toward Freedom
The journey toward Oromo liberation has been long and fraught with challenges. The monarchy was dismantled, the Derg was overthrown, and Woyane was eventually toppled. The next step is confronting or co-opting Dr. Abiy, who, despite his flaws, has successfully weakened the Neftegna and Woyane forces. With Shabiya now in his sights, it is crucial for Oromo nationalists to support him strategically.
Ultimately, the goal is clear: a free, sovereign Oromia, potentially within a future union of free nations in the Horn of Africa. The path ahead will not be easy, but with unity, determination, and the support of all oppressed peoples, it is an attainable goal. May Wàqà (God) guide the Oromo people in their pursuit of freedom.
Galatôma.
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/04/2 ... ne-by-one/