The Horn Africa is currently under turmoil & regional and international powers are in need of an alliance partners which makes Tigray an attractive partner
- Tigray has successfully manipulated to fracture Abiy & Isaias tactical alliance never to be repaired again but a potential for an immediate conflict/ war between the two. Tigray is the wild card that both Isaias & Abiy must have to win the war
- Amhara and the Federal government are at war and in a condition of irreconcilable antagonism. Both Abiy & FANO require partnership with Tigray to win the existing conflict in Amhara. Abiy acceptance within Ethiopia is at its lowest time and the people of Ethiopia are waiting for change.
- Abiy's external backers ( Turkey, Saudi and UAE ) during the Tigray war are divided and in opposite direction which weakens Abiy.
Internal factors :
- TPLF has successfully purged out Abiy network within TPLF
- TDF is well trained and ready for any mission
- Gold exploitation is helping Tigray to fund its military machine.
The way forward :
Scenario 1: TPLF could create tactical alliance with Eritrea, Amhara and other Ethiopian people to topple Abiy from power within 3 months. Ultimately Tigray could be independent and Confederated with both Eritrea and/or Ethiopia .
Scenario 2 : TPLF could create tactical alliance with PP and ultimately join PP or create multiethnic political party that competes with PP. Tigray could also be independent and confederated with Ethiopia.
Scenario 2 is the preferred option both for Tigray & Ethiopia!
Under both scenarios Tigray should stay armed & under the leadership of TPLF . No DDR for Tigray while it's enemies are once again wishing to commit genocide !
