The prospect of an imminent war with Eritrea raises the question: who would gain the upper hand?
Based on the current situation, Ethiopia appears confident that it can force Eritrea to its knees. To some extent, there is a visible atmosphere of depression among Eritreans. This would not be a guerrilla war; Eritrean soldiers and their artillery could be exposed to Ethiopia's more modernized military hardware. On the surface, it looks like the war could be short, with the Ethiopian military potentially marching into Asmara with ease.
However, this likely won't be as straightforward as it seems. Eritrea appears to be avoiding direct confrontation with Ethiopia, instead choosing a proxy war strategy, which could, of course, extend the conflict indefinitely. We can sense that Tigrayan elites are viewing this situation as an opportunity in two ways: first, they are seeking the downfall of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and want to regain control in Addis Ababa (4 Kilo); second, they want Abiy to dethrone Isaias Afwerki so that a situation arises where Eritreans and Tigrayans can form an alliance and potentially a new country.
Another problem for Abiy—and a good opportunity for Eritrea—is the unending internal war ravaging Ethiopia with Fano. This internal conflict will make it difficult for Ethiopia to face Eritrea's military directly. I don't understand why some Fano fighters would want to work with Eritrea and the TPLF; why would they want to be subservient again?
In my opinion, before engaging in any kind of war with Eritrea, the Ethiopian government must carefully consider how to resolve its internal problems with Fano and the Tigrayans. Fano could likely be handled through negotiation, but the TPLF is hard to deal with. Their goals are against Ethiopian interests and they seek to re-establish a dictatorship.
Re: The prospect of an imminent war with Eritrea raises the question: who would gain the upper hand?
I thought you have to have an army to go to war and fight. Dude, Ethiopia can't fight Addis's gangs let alone to go to war with anyone. What the stupid Abiy is doing is hoping to find ገላጋይ to save some faces. And the Eritreans knew and they are besically ignoring him and rejecting everything Abiy says.Abaymado wrote: ↑10 Oct 2025, 05:57
Based on the current situation, Ethiopia appears confident that it can force Eritrea to its knees. To some extent, there is a visible atmosphere of depression among Eritreans. This would not be a guerrilla war; Eritrean soldiers and their artillery could be exposed to Ethiopia's more modernized military hardware. On the surface, it looks like the war could be short, with the Ethiopian military potentially marching into Asmara with ease.
However, this likely won't be as straightforward as it seems. Eritrea appears to be avoiding direct confrontation with Ethiopia, instead choosing a proxy war strategy, which could, of course, extend the conflict indefinitely. We can sense that Tigrayan elites are viewing this situation as an opportunity in two ways: first, they are seeking the downfall of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and want to regain control in Addis Ababa (4 Kilo); second, they want Abiy to dethrone Isaias Afwerki so that a situation arises where Eritreans and Tigrayans can form an alliance and potentially a new country.
Another problem for Abiy—and a good opportunity for Eritrea—is the unending internal war ravaging Ethiopia with Fano. This internal conflict will make it difficult for Ethiopia to face Eritrea's military directly. I don't understand why some Fano fighters would want to work with Eritrea and the TPLF; why would they want to be subservient again?
In my opinion, before engaging in any kind of war with Eritrea, the Ethiopian government must carefully consider how to resolve its internal problems with Fano and the Tigrayans. Fano could likely be handled through negotiation, but the TPLF is hard to deal with. Their goals are against Ethiopian interests and they seek to re-establish a dictatorship.
Re: The prospect of an imminent war with Eritrea raises the question: who would gain the upper hand?
"Their goals are against Ethiopian interests and they seek to re-establish a dictatorship." This statement implies Ethiopia is now a democracy which is not correct. Why is TPLF that led Ethiopia for 27 years toward peace & prosperity is considered anti-Ethiopia?