Mereja.Forum

[sesame]

Whatever the logic was that impelled the TPLF geniuses to go into Qobo cannot mitigate that it was a monumental strategic blunder. Here are the reasons.

First, it was a clear violation of the cease-fire. The diplomatic loss of the invasion of uncontested territory is incalculable. They made it very difficult for their Western masters to intervene on their behalf. They have given Abiy the perfect excuse to refuse any peace overtures and demand that the only option open to TPLF is total surrender. Even if Abiy wants to accept peace talks, his military and the Ethiopian people will not. This is now clear to the Biden administration and the EU.

Second, militarily, Qobo is like a fish bone in one's throat. They cannot move forward because of the fierce resistance by ENDF. And they cannot retreat, because if they do, their rag-tag militia will collapse and ENDF will pursue them to Mekele. So their only option is to pour as many soldiers as they can to stay in place. In fact, I am now convinced that Abiy wants to keep them there.

Third, by committing a large part of their military on the Qobo front, they have weakened other flanks of the war fronts. ENDF is now getting into Tigray from all directions. Qobo has become irrelevant to the progress of the war.

If the dumb TPLF generals had to start fighting, they should have moved westwards towards Humera. At least, they could then have not lost the diplomatic card!

[quindibu]

Whatever the logic was that impelled the TPLF geniuses to go into Qobo cannot mitigate that it was a monumental strategic blunder. Here are the reasons.

First, it was a clear violation of the cease-fire. The diplomatic loss of the invasion of uncontested territory is incalculable. They made it very difficult for their Western masters to intervene on their behalf. They have given Abiy the perfect excuse to refuse any peace overtures and demand that the only option open to TPLF is total surrender. Even if Abiy wants to accept peace talks, his military and the Ethiopian people will not. This is now clear to the Biden administration and the EU.

Second, militarily, Qobo is like a fish bone in one's throat. They cannot move forward because of the fierce resistance by ENDF. And they cannot retreat, because if they do, their rag-tag militia will collapse and ENDF will pursue them to Mekele. So their only option is to pour as many soldiers as they can to stay in place. In fact, I am now convinced that Abiy wants to keep them there.

Third, by committing a large part of their military on the Qobo front, they have weakened other flanks of the war fronts. ENDF is now getting into Tigray from all directions. Qobo has become irrelevant to the progress of the war.

If the dumb TPLF generals had to start fighting, they should have moved westwards towards Humera. At least, they could then have not lost the diplomatic card!

Your second point is extremely important not only militarily, but also politically and diplomatically, as the Adwa thugs would normally tend to scream genocide to Papa US whenever ENDF made some incursions into their tiny enclave following the Tigray's rag tag militia cowardice retreat from Amhara region.......

Now these morons can't pull out the victim card while sitting on Amhara land.......

[Axumezana]

Abiy started the war to over run TDF and to march to Mekelle! But the result is a game changer victory for TDF! I know that pains you too much!

[euroland]

Abiy started the war to over run TDF and to march to Mekelle! But the result is a game changer victory for TDF! I know that pains you too much!

I agree with Axumezena
These two Shaebias are just delusionals.

Ayokha Nayna ትግራይ ትስዕር ! (ለኔም ከምትጨሰዋ እየለኮስክልኝ Axumezena- ወንድሜ)