I know Eritreans are sensitive and thin-skinned on criticism as they midwifed a new country and were faced with headwinds from US/UN/EU/Meles - a consortium that was on the brink of winning before the tide changed and Isayas came out the winner. Even if anything happens now, the worst has passed for Eritrea as the weight of TPLF was sugarcoated and lionized by its control of federal power and the country at large. Robbed of this, TPLF is defanged lion that couldn’t kill.
First things first - Isayas is a shrewdly strategic leader. But as all of us humans, he is a product of his environment. Would Isayas have acted and done differently if there was no such things as Ethiopia, Amhara, Meles….? Did his neighborhood shape him? Or is he just a liberation-movement-leader-turned-first-leader-of-new-nation like post-colonial leaders?
I agree that the mundane technical meaning of “democracy” and “multi-party-ism” is not a prescription for a newborn country which needs stability and basic institution building without the fits-and -starts of changing governments.
So as much as there are those who fantasize into depicting Isayas as authoritarian/dictator, they tend to forget his historic duty as a first leader who midwifed a nation.
Mind you I’m not a blind Isayas fan. But even if he was a abject dictator like those purposeless and visionless tyrants, I would say Isayas as a person could go down in history as the most brilliant, meticulous and cleanest tactician and navigator of regional and world policktics to remain in power in such a world and region that had the power to topple 10 dictators. Imagine the forces he won over - USA, EU, Meles’s Ethiopia, internal discontent, name your soup… Isayas is a textbook personality who had won against all odds. Someone who met him in 1992 in an Asmara restaurant told me he recognized her “by name” at a fundraiser in the US years later in US. And an influential fella described to me how daunting and intimidating his aura is both because of his tallness and his charismatic human nature.
Enough on that but you may hate Isayas because you’re a fantastical Eritrean, a diehard TPLFite, or a mold-fashioned Ethiopiawi but as a human Isayas is a textbook example and one of the most successful leaders who maintained his place in all this turbulent and opposing world.
But has Isayas brought Eritrea to the pinnacle of its desired height? That depends on what “height” means. As to me, despite all that Eritreans had to endure, I say Isayas has done his work excellently. (1) He maintains a flourishing Eritrean identity by keeping guard from the turbulent globalization that had eroded the culture and identity of nations except EU, China, India, Turkeye and a few others. And don’t forget it was a double job for Isayas - building a new ER nationalism while at the same time protecting it from naysayers and detractors. So I give Isayas an A-plus for keeping Eritrea intact against regional/international headwinds.
Is there a “better” way? Considering all the forces against him and knowing how TPLF functions, I doubt if Isayas could/would have acted differently.
When we see how consistent Isayas remains in all this, it shows you how a strong body-politic he has built in Eritrea. Many in TPLF camp hoped/hope that there is no strong nation after Isayas. But a reflection of the strong identity of Eritreans as individuals show us that a manipulation or diminishing of Eritrea by TPLF in the absence of Isayas is unlikely as the Eritrean identity is/has become as a reality in its own right. I’m sure recent events have enabled TPLF to learn this dearly and forget about its dream of writing off Isayas/Eritrea as TPLF has been underestimating Oromos, Amharas, Ethiopians and found itself in a quandary. TPLF’s strength was its monopoly of federal power and once that is gone it was a question of coming back to size the hard way or the easy way and it chose the hard way.
Like it or not Isayas has won! Isayas is leading a nation that has its own national interests. And that is economic, social, security, inter-regional relations… And don’t expect these touchpoints to intersect perfectly with all countries in the region. I see the snowflake analysts on Mereja who think Eritrea and Ethiopia are at odds now. But can they do that even if they wanted? If that was the case thousands of Eritreans would have been kicked out by Abiy and there would have been military push backs in some spots.
Isayas wants Abiy to do his homework and Abiy can’t just do that because he’s a leader of a nation that has to chart a future that includes Tegaru (not necessarily TPLF). Tegaru outside of Tigray have realized that their interest is far bigger than today’s bankrupt TPLF. This is a work in progress and Abiy had duty to this Tegaru constituency and Isayas doesn’t. So that interest diverges. But on a big picture level both agree that TPLF has to reform or at least kept contained to spiral out into oblivion. If TPLF is going to start anything both would work together but if TPLF keeps the peace path, Abiy had duty as a leader to listen to Tegaru. But what both Abiy and Isayas agree on is a TPLF that is a trouble in either Ethiopia or Eritrea is a danger to the other and both will never risk allowing TPLF to be a trouble over either of them. But under this, you’d see both countries living their own life and at times loom like at odds to each other. Being at odds with Ethiopia will be most hurtful for Eritreans who are flourishing in Ethiopia under Abiy. That is what is on the ground. And don’t forget that Isayas is uneasy about these flourishing Eritreans and the open-door policy of Abiy which is opposite to what Isayas learned all his life - a closed-door and tightly managed country. This unpredictability is what Isayas wants to control and what Abiy is dangling before Isayas. And Isayas knows Abiy is his best bet as no Tegaru or Amhara would be as relatively neutral, positive and accommodating to Eritreans as a Galla like Abiy as Isayas’s/Eritrea’s best interest lies with Oromos than the TPLF or “Ethiopiawinet” Amhara.
TPLF is in a quandary and logjam as it is not realistic in its place and size in the horn and because it seeks the ultimate advantage which is impossible as this is a shared world and not a winner take all one anymore. This self-inflicted limbo TPLF put itself in is giving Abiy/Esayas/Amhara the breathing space and time to strengthen their positions. Look at how ANDM/OPDO with confidence went after Fano - they are certain that TPLF would not use this opportune moment because everyday that passes gives Isayas and Abiy more clout.
In sum, this is a missive to the practical minded ones to always think win-win as you’d never know what your enemy is capable of and how you’d bring the worst out of your enemy. Look what TPLF made in its narrow vengeance against Eritrea and how a monstrosity it made out of Isayas.
Isayas has won and TPLF is scattered and eroded only feigning existence after its misadventures. Isayas played the long and tedious game and the calculation he did in 1996 bear fruit in 2018-2020. In the arada jingo, “Isayasin alemadneq nifuginet newu!”
https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.scip.org/reso ... tition.pdf
Your Galla friend!