AFRICA
Ambitious China gears up to flex power in the conflict-riven Horn of Africa
February 1, 2022
By Hemant Adlakha
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/02/01/a ... of-africa/
With the announcement to appoint a special envoy to the Horn of Africa, China has entered the “Scramble for Africa.” The stated objective of China’s ambitious political move is to foster peace in the conflict-riven East African “corner.” However, as foreign affairs analysts point out, the real Chinese aim is to gain momentum against the US in the world’s second largest continent.
***
Year 2022. First week. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi kept up his usual date with Africa – a tradition dating back thirty-two years by which Chinese foreign ministers open the diplomatic year with a trip to the world’s second largest continent. But this year’s new-yearly visit to Africa by the Chinese foreign minister was rather unusual. Wang declared https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-01-06/C ... index.html at a press briefing during the Africa tour in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa that
Both analysts and observers of China’s Africa policy have been surprised by the timing of Wang’s visit to the Horn as also by his announcing that Beijing was ready to proactively mediate some of the region’s conflicts.China plans to appoint a special envoy to the Horn of Africa.
Horn of Africa and the US and its Western allies
The Horn of Africa – located in the easternmost corner of the African continent, takes its name from the horn-shaped land formation at the southern end of the Red Sea and on the Gulf of the Aden. Five of the region’s seven countries – the Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and landlocked Ethiopia, are situated looking into the Indian Ocean south of the Arabian Peninsula. Located on the main shipping route for the transport of oil from the Persian Gulf to Europe and the United States, the Horn of Africa is considered one of the most strategically important regions in the world. Sadly the region is endowed with rivers, lakes, forests and livestock, and has untapped rich deposits of natural resources including gold, petroleum, salt and natural gas etc. Yet its two hundred million people remain one of the poorest on the earth.
Besides, with its unique strategic location, the Horn of Africa has long been experiencing flare-ups of hot issues and eruptions of conflicts and confrontations. According to Amir Idris, professor and chair, Department of African and African American Studies at New York’s Fordham University, during the Cold War days, national strategic interest and not political and economic development was the primary focus of the US in the region.
professor Idris observed https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... -of-africa in a recent article in The Hill.Consequently, the entanglement of cultural and political history, the complex socioeconomic formations, and the competing ethnic and regional actors and visions in the region have been given less attention in the process of conceiving strategies and policies
The other reason the US and other major Western powers active in the region focused only on building the security apparatus of states was on containing communist encroachment. In the post- Cold War period, as several African analysts have pointed out, US policy increasingly became static and lacked strategy and coherence. In ensuing years, following a string of terrorist attacks between 1998 bombings on US embassy in Kenya and Tanzania and 2001 “9.11” attacks,
As a result of such a narrow policy approach, the US has been pursuing the mantra “either you are with us or against us” in coaxing countries to choose sides in a conflict which did not offer neutrality as a position.disrupting local Islamic extremists linked to a global jihadi network became superseding objective of the US and its Western allies in the region.
opined https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/n ... t-it-back/ Gabriel Negatu, a non-resident fellow at the Washington-based Africa Centre and a former Eastern Africa director general for the African Development Bank.But combating terrorism and promoting trade held pre-eminence [for the US and its Western allies] over all pretence of interest in addressing what Africans deemed to be more pressing priorities,
China “Scramble for the Horn of Africa”
The US failure to reset its Africa policy in order to address growing trouble in the restive region of the Horn of Africa partly explains why countries in the region have been turning towards China. In three major countries in the region – Kenya, Sudan and Ethiopia – the US is now being outstripped by China in various ways. Ethiopia’s case is particularly interesting because the region’s largest country both in size and in population, has historically been a US proxy state for decades. It was not until a few years ago that Ethiopia was called https://www.counterpunch.org/2015/09/09 ... in-africa/ as
But why has China suddenly put its focus on the Horn of Africa – arguably among the most crisis ridden parts in Africa? In the white paper http://www.news.cn/english/2021-11/26/c_1310333813.htm Beijing released on 26 November last year entitledWashington’s cop on the beat for the Horn of Africa.
it was claimed that shared past experiences and similar aims and goals have brought China and Africa closer together.China and Africa in the New Era: A Partnership of Equals,
the white paper proudly put forward the principles of Xi Jinping’s Africa Policy in the New Era thatBesides China being Africa’s largest trading partner since 2009,
One week later, a worldpoliticsreview.com report https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/tre ... re-balance on the eighth edition of the triennial forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) held in Dakar, Senegal and written by influential commentator Chris Olaoluwa Ogunmodede, nearly echoed the Chinese white paper sayingChina is the largest developing country in the world and Africa is the continent with the largest number of developing countries.
Timing of Wang Yi’s visit and China’s definitely well-calculated announcement to send a special envoy to the Horn of Africa must also be viewed in the context of the recent rise in “jostling for influence” among foreign powers active in the region. Additionally, more than the timing, what surprised many is the unusually direct statements by Wang Yi in Mombasa, Kenya on January 6 about why China plans to have a Horn to Africa special envoy. While Wang said conflicts hampered the region’sAfrica seeks a more equitable partnership with China.
and such a situationtremendous potential for development
[My emphasis]should not be allowed to continue.
However, Wang’s undisguised and overt declaration to flex China’s political power in the war-torn zone is being interpreted as Beijing becoming impatient to play a bigger role in the region’s politics and security. Moreover, notwithstanding “wolf warrior” style aggressive foreign policy posture recently, Wang’s explicit assertion is also being contrasted with China’s diplomats generally speaking in more general terms.
The US fearful of being outstripped by China
Interestingly, experts in China have typically welcomed the move as showing the country’s responsibility of being a major country and its constructive role in the conflict-torn region. Li Wentao, deputy director of China’s influential think tank, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), has welcomed the move, saying
Li noted. https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2022 ... 7fd62.htmlChina’s special envoy could engage in shuttle diplomacy in the region and contribute China’s wisdom and approach to solving problems. China is trusted by all the countries in the Horn of Africa,
Another researcher at the Chinese foreign ministry’s leading think tank, China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), Professor Zeng Aiping, was even more forthright in applauding the initiative.
Aiping observed. https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2022 ... 7fd62.htmlIt [the move] will encourage the Horn of Africa to strengthen exchanges on national governance and overcome governance bottlenecks,
In contrast, some analysts in Africa have raised questions about the effectiveness of China’s role in resolving political conflicts in the region. Despite making several promises last year to try to reach a solution that meets the interests of the three parties – Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan – over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis, China has been perceived as a big disappointment, especially by Cairo. Salah Halima, deputy chairman of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs reacted to the announcement by Wang Yi, saying: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/20 ... orn-africa
Likewise, in the words https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/20 ... orn-africa of Ahmed Aksar, a researcher at Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic Political Studies,[We expect] the Chinese envoy to resolve the conflict over the Niles water by taking the initiative to deter any new threat to regional security as a result of Ethiopia’s unilateral actions in the GERD.
To sum up, though observers in India reckon https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr Wang Yi’s this diplomatic year’s 5-nation tour – crowned with Horn of Africa special envoy announcement – was aimed at challenging and countering India’s pre-eminent role in the region. Yet the fact is China and the United States have been for some years – especially since China set up military base in Djibouti – locked in competition for influence in Africa. More significantly, the reason why China is becoming a more attractive investor to African nations than the US and its Western allies is, China does notChina’s move to appoint a Horn of Africa envoy, if successful, would strengthen China’s international and regional sway at the expense of Washington.
and instead calls itview aid in terms of loans
ormutually beneficial cooperation
In other words, as Eric Draitser, a US-based political analyst has rather succinctly put it: the US is deeply concerned that it will lose its foothold in the Horn of Africa if Kenya or the Sudan or Ethiopia become direct allies with China. So, what the US has chosen to do is to check Chinese economic penetration in the region, as also all over the continent, with military penetration.win-win investment.
______________
China and the US Continue to Compete for Influence in Africa
Author: Petr Konovalov
https://m.journal-neo.org/2022/02/01/ch ... in-africa/
Feb.01, 2022
Africa is a vast continent, rich in resources of every kind – in addition to its famous diamond mines and hydrocarbon deposits, it has 50% of the world’s gold reserves, and 90% of its reserves of platinum, cobalt, chrome and other minerals required by modern manufacturing industries. And the continent’s vast and largely very poor population represents a promising market and a huge labor force. Moreover, almost all African states have low levels of economic and social development, seriously compromising their political autonomy. Unsurprisingly, Africa is continually under pressure from major world powers, with their continuous hunger for resources and space, and a pressing desire to rein in the expansion of their rivals.
From the late 19th to the mid 20th century Africa was split up between various European colonial powers, and then, as country after country became independent and European influence declined, the US and the USSR began competing for influence on the continent. The two superpowers shared a firm conviction that their chosen path was in the best interests of the newly independent African states, and both were motivated by more pragmatic considerations- neither could risk abandoning Africa and its vast resources to their adversary, as that would mean upsetting the prevailing balance between the two powers.
But in 1991 the USSR collapsed, and the Russian Federation, its successor state, was forced to focus on its own internal and regional problems, leaving it in no position to take part in global geopolitical maneuvering. Th US was not able to enjoy its dominance over Africa for long, however, as China soon started ramping up its influence over the region.
In the last three decades China has strengthened its position as one of the leading global powers and leading players in international politics. Its status as a leading global power in effect forces it to defend its position on the global stage and compete for influence with the other powers. It is therefore completely understandable that China has got involved in the struggle for Africa. For China, obtaining a hold over the continent became a leading political and economic priority.
Since 2000 Beijing’s involvement in the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) has enabled it to work with all the African states simultaneously. In that year trade between Africa and China was worth $10 billion.
In 2009 China overtook the US as Africa’s main trading partner.
In 2015 the Chinese Premier Xi Jinping announced at the FOCAC summit that China had invested $60 billion into African economies.
In 2017, in order to protect its investments and trading interests in the continent, China established a naval base in Djibouti, a small state on the Gulf of Aden, directly on the route to the Suez Canal, through which much of the shipping traffic between Europe and Asia passes. The base has therefore not only given China a military presence in Africa, but also a hold on a strategic global shipping corridor.
Despite the fact that the US has dozens of military bases and thousands of troops in Africa in order to prop up regimes that favor its interests and support it in the battle against terrorism, the establishment of the first Chinese base on the continent represented a major turning point in Sino-African relations and posed a serious challenge to Washington.
Realizing that it would be unable to compete with Beijing in terms of investment volumes, Washington decided to launch a major propaganda campaign in which it accused Beijing of using investment to trap African nations into incurring debt that they would be unable to repay, thus forcing them into economic and political dependence on China. In March 2018 the US Center for Global Development even published a report listing the African nations facing the greatest risk of a debt crisis as a result of their partnership with China. Since then articles on Beijing’s “debt trap” strategy have become a regular feature of the US-led ideological and propaganda campaign against China.
The US’s warnings, however, have had little impact, and in September 2018 Beijing hosted a FOCAC summit in which African leaders joined forces in supporting the Chinese Belt and Road initiative, which is aimed at uniting its member states into a single economic area by creating a unified transportation system. On that occasion Xi Jinping announced that China was investing another $60 billion into African economies.
In 2018 Sino-African trade volumes reached $200 billion, more than 20 times the amount in 2000.
China is cementing its position in Africa. In return for its investment China is getting African electricity, agricultural produce, timber etc. Taking advantage of the low cost of labor on the continent, China is building many factories there. As part of its Belt and Road initiative, which almost all African nations have joined, China is also building a continent-wide system of roads and railways in Africa.
As a result, Africa is becoming a manufacturing center, market, and logistics center for Chinese goods, with new roads crossing the continent from west to east and linking the ports on the two coasts, transforming the continent into a transshipment center for the delivery of Chinese goods, many of them actually manufactured in Africa, to the Americas.
In the last few years, on several occasions fate appears to have favored those who would like to see Beijing and its Belt and Road initiative fail. For example, in 2019 its railway project in Kenya ran into difficulties. Kenya had long been in need of a new railway to connect the capital, Nairobi, with the port of Mombasa, on the east coast. The railway was built by China, which provided Kenya with $3.6 billion in loan funding for the project. It was completed in 2017, but in its first two years of operation it generated much less profit than its Kenyan operators had hoped. The Kenyan government came to the conclusion that the railway will only really start bringing in a profit once it has been extended – by the Chinese – to South Sudan, which has considerable oil reserves but lacks any access to the sea. Linking South Sudan to the port of Mombasa would allow Sudanese oil to be shipped to China, stimulate the economy of the entire region, and make the new railway profitable. But in 2019 China refused to allocate any funding for the extension of the railway to South Sudan, citing a lack of a clear budget for the project. Kenya faces the risk – discussed above – of getting caught in a debt trap.
Kenya suffered another blow to its creditworthiness at the beginning of 2020, when the COVID-19 epidemic caused a global downturn in passenger and freight transport. Rumors began circulating that the country would be forced to give Mombasa up to China in payment of the debt, just as Shri Lanka had been forced to grant China a 99 year lease of its port of Hambantota. In view of these fears, in 2020 the Kenyan Court of Appeal ruled that the agreement on construction of the railway was invalid.
In November 2021 China became the owner of Uganda’s only international airport. This was the result of the country’s inability to repay a debt of $207 million, money which it had borrowed from China in 2015.
The Americans see these events as a serious blow to China’s reputation in Africa and as proof that it is adopting a “debt trap” strategy.
At the end of November 2021 a new FOCAC summit was held in Dakar, the capital of Senegal. Xi Jinping, speaking by video link, promised to provide Africa with 1 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines and other humanitarian aid, although the hoped-for announcement of billions of dollars in investment failed to materialize. Perhaps this is a hint to the African nations that the bonanza is over and it is now time to start paying back the debts. Xi Jinping also declared that China would help African nations in their transition to green energy, by supporting the reduction of coal mining in the continent, and discontinuing the construction of coal-fired power stations.
These events that have cast something of a cloud on Sino-African relations may be in part due to the COVID-19 epidemic and the global economic crisis which it has triggered and which even an economic giant like China is having difficulties weathering. It may well be that as a result China will have to reduce its investments in Africa and be more insistent when it comes to calling in its debts. However, despite the problems described above, China’s position in Africa remains very strong. And China is not just relying on economic tactics to strengthen its foothold on the continent: in December 2021 western media reported that China may acquire a naval base on the coast of Equatorial Guinea. China has a commercial port there, and western experts suspect that the facility could easily be upgraded and used as a base for a naval fleet. If that does happen then China will have gone beyond just cementing its position in Africa – it will have gained access to the Atlantic Ocean, and that would be a clear challenge to US global hegemony.
* Petr Konovalov, a political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
