If Ethiopia continues on the path of war, it will not only see one of the world’s worst famines but a dark fate of disintegration
Less than two years ago Ethiopia hailed Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for winning the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his “brave” moves to effect peace with archenemy Eritrea and the “democratic” measures encouraging exiled Ethiopians to return to their homeland.
Below the surface, however, ethnic and social tensions were brewing – reaching boiling point, even – when Ahmed’s government launched a campaign against what it claimed was “corruption”. The majority of the victims of this campaign were from Tigray, a group that had remained at the helm of the state for three decades, until Ahmed assumed the position of prime minister in April 2018.
The rapprochement with Eritrea was a step to tighten the noose on the Tigrayans. Many observers had noted that the 1998-2000 war between Addis Ababa and Asmara was in fact a conflict between the Tigrayans and their late leader Meles Zenawi on one side and the Eritreans and their leading figure Isaias Afwerki on the other.
Two years after that peace accord, the Tigrayans have been reiterating the idea that their expectations had been spot-on: Ahmed and Afwerki were not seeking peace as much as they hoped to strike an alliance against Tigray.
Four years into Ahmed’s rule, Ethiopia turned from the country with the highest growth rates in Africa south of the Sahara to a troubled country enduring a large-scale Civil War and threatened with fragmentation and famine.
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In November 2020 Ahmed waged war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – the ruling movement in the northern region – after Tigrayan elements launched an attack on a military base.
Ahmed’s father belongs to the Oromo which comprises 34 per cent of the Ethiopian population, while his mother hails from the Amhara which make up 27 per cent of Ethiopia. At the beginning of his rule, he had the support of both ethnicities, but siding with the Amhara made him lose ground with the Oromo.
The prime minister’s army didn’t have the capabilities to confront the Tigrayans – seven per cent of the population – who throughout their 30-year rule comprised more than one-third of the officers in the army. Today, these officers are fighting in the ranks of the armed opposition.
Since the war broke out, Ahmed depended on the militias hailing from the Amhara, Afar, and to a lesser extent from Oromia regions. This formation pitted the Tigrayans against not the army but the rest of Ethiopia’s ethnic groups.
A large number of Ethiopians volunteered in the ranks of the Amhara to join the war against the Tigrayans, proving the popularity of Ahmed’s government.
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