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Tigray assembled 1 million army and overwhelmed ENDF which was literally 200k in the north (the rest 100k in other parts of the country)
So clearly, there was a mismatch on numbers. Tsadkan used human wave using his 1 million TDF army. Tigray had advantage clearly. Back in June, Tegaru generals made a military blunder and mistake by going to Nefas-Mewcha Gonder direction from Woldya. That was a huge military mistake. Their idea was to humiliate Gondar from south Gondar direction and snatch Wolkayt in two directions (from Sudan with 30k samri and from Shire using Megbe's forces)
So TPLF was halted at Debretabor because Gondar Amhara is militarized or have a tradition of carrying weapons. Gonder Amhara together with ENDF hold for about a month and push back all the way to Gashena (Semien Wollo).
Tigray Generals re-evaluate this calculation saying that not only Gondar, Gojjam will also descend on them if they go to Gondar & Bahirdar. So they changed the attack through Wollo and Afar.
Tigray Generals did not learn from their mistake when they chose to attack Afar, a worrier tribe who were abused by tigray for 27 years. It was another blunder because afar is an open arid field suitable only for Afaris and Ethiopian Air force. TPLF lost over 50k tegarus going through Afar.
Then they revaluate and decided to go through Wollo all the way to Addis. To be honest, if they chose that rout, they could have entered Addis since Wollo and Shoa we're not really armed (forbidden to carry arms by Oromo prosperity party OLF affiliates).
Tigrayans had success capturing Dessie all the way to the outskirts of Debrebrehan. But that was too late. In that full 4-5 months, ENDF swallen in Number, FANO swallen in huge number together with Afar and Amhara Liyu Hayels. By the time the counter attack started, the number of Ethiopian forces really matched the tegaru number.
The rest is as we saw it. 2 weeks attack, TPLF is mowed down and all these areas are freed.
ENDF and Ethiopian forces will now have time to double or triple their number and the only hope left for Tegarus is "Negotiation" as they have been shouting now. Will that be granted? I doubt. All forces want revenge and we shall see the outcome.
Jimmy
