Time to revisit some of the strategic plunders that led to the denouement of TPLF:
1. 1998-2000: instigated a war with Eritrea with a two-pronged objective: A. shore up TPLF's deteriorating political fortune in Ethiopia by promising to re-occupy Eritrea, and B. realize its long-held irredentist vision of a Greater Tigray Republic with expanded territorial bounds to the North incorporating significant swaths of Eritrean territory.
2. Flawed military strategy: TPLF "human waves" WWI Style Military Strategy failed spectacularly to subdue Eritrea.
3. Having failed completely to subdue Eritrea militarily, the TPLF reluctantly agreed to arbitration on the terms and conditions of the Eritrean government: i.e arbitration of the border disputes on the basis of colonial treaties and applicable international law, which was a sure way of losing in court of law.
4. Failure to accept the Final and Binding EEBC Ruling: This has to be one of the major strategic blunders that in the long-run was politically and diplomatically untenable for TPLF, even though it might have seemed a setback for Eritrea initially and the two-year costly litigation (by the way Eritrea's legal team was top notch as has been attested to by many observers, whereas TPLF/Ethiopia's legal acumen was a major disappointment for many greater Ethiopianists. Apparently, TPLF put much more emphasis on its war chest than its preparation for international arbitration. Needless to say, they had no case in the first place as Badme and other disputed territories were undoubtedly within the sovereign jurisdiction of Eritrea as has long been depicted not only in colonial treaties, but also in maps published by none other than the Ethiopian government itself over the years.)
5. 2000-2018: "No War, No Peace" or War by other means: Having lost in war--causing unnecessary suffering of the Eritrean and Ethiopian people, as well as wasting the riches of Ethiopia and aid money received in the name of Ethiopia on buying armaments for a doomed war--TPLF decided continue WAR BY OTHER MEANS: relentlessly work to isolate Eritrea and effect "regime change." This was the main rationale behind their "No War, No Peace" posture.
The stalemate, they thought, would cause a total collapse of Eritrea, a reality they failed to bring about through war now they wanted to realize through sabotage, subterfuge, and international conspiracy.
Their flawed calculus was that Eritrean regime would collapse under extended hardship induced by isolation, economic decay and international sanctions. They also miscalculated that the Eritrean military would topple the government in order to end the this miserable limbo that they concocted. But this also backfired on them spectacularly.
6. 2018-2020: Spoilers of peace: The TPLF decided to stop the tidal wave of history by acting as spoilers of peace, and by doing everything possible in the book of obstruction to delegitimize Abiy's government, destabilize Ethiopia as a whole through ethnic strife, and derail the Eritrea-Ethiopia rapprochement. Once again they miscalculated monumentally. They failed to read the tea leaves: the Ethiopian people were united by their opposition to TPLF plunders of the past 27 years, their kleptocracy, their ethnic despotism, their sham democracy, and their brinkmanship.
As a result, they rebuffed numerous overtures from Abiy to make do and join the creation of a new political dispensation, and a new Ethiopia that transcends institutionalized ethnic politics.
7. November 2020: They fired the first shot thinking they would initiate a military confrontation in the hope of
1. toppling Abiy in cahoots with other ethno-nationalist elements inside Ethiopia and
2. If that failed, negotiating with Abiy better deal for themselves and their families, and deflecting the fast approaching train of justice. And this, like the first bullet they fired at Dedebit to launch their secessionist movement, ushered in their demise.
Requiem for TPLF (1975-2020), a text book example of strategic madness, and how to not shoot one self in the foot.