Military upper-hand is dependent on geography and access to resources. Tigray is blocked by Eritrea and Ethiopia. Tigray cannot sustain long-term war against Ethiopia. Tigray should first weaken and demilitarize Eritrea. This gives Tigray an opportunity of access to the sea and free transport of military equipment from other countries like Russia, China, Europe (German or France).
The war could be protracted. Thus demilitarizing Eritrea by destroying the military it's military base is important to continue the war to the South. Up to now, TDF seems to hope for coalition with OLF and other forces. But OLF can sabotage TDF and thus TDF should march to Addis and control Ethiopia. OLF could be advised by it's foreign advisers to attack TPLF
TDF needs to have a new programme where Ethiopian unity is the key policy. Ethnic federalism should be integrated into a new form of federalism. We need to have 20-30 provinces. Depoliticize federalism. Important is the equal distribution of resources.
If TDF remains to stick to ethnic federalism , then Tigray will suffer defeat at the hands Ethiopian nationalists.
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EthioRedSea
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