Open question: speculate the coming scenarios
Players: Ethiopia, Eritrea, TPLF guerillas, US&EU, Egypt, Sudan,
Issue 1, Tigray Crisis
Issue 2, Sudan border dispute
Issue 3, GERD dam dispute
Issue 1
Scenario 1, complete elimination of TPLF (impossible) brings normalcy i.e. no more sanctions by West,
Scenario 2, continued fighting,
2a) Eritrea withdraws, (eases US pressure) -> extended but less violent
2b) Eritrea stays, further sanctions (like Iran) -> US military intervention (unlikely)),
Scenario 3, Cease fire, deal with TPLF (cessation referendum) - impossible
Issue 2,3
After the Ethiopian election, pressure from Egypt, Sudan intensifies to reach a dam deal, nothing seems to change from Ethiopian side, only small border clashes (potentially with other neighboring countries like Kenya (Marsabit) and Djibouti)
Re: What is your prediction?
Matt,
You asked broad questions, and you limited the answer to three of your very own possibilities. You should have left it open. I believe Abbiy will give in. He may have done so already. Tigray stays part of Ethiopia, and it elects a new government. TPLF continues surgical operations. Finally, EDF will withdraw from Tigray. Tigray will be a pseudo independent country within Ethiopia. US will go back to UN security council with evidence gathered. Outcome, your guess is mine.
Egypt and Sudan will be relentless. At the end, everyone will compromise. That is my take.
You asked broad questions, and you limited the answer to three of your very own possibilities. You should have left it open. I believe Abbiy will give in. He may have done so already. Tigray stays part of Ethiopia, and it elects a new government. TPLF continues surgical operations. Finally, EDF will withdraw from Tigray. Tigray will be a pseudo independent country within Ethiopia. US will go back to UN security council with evidence gathered. Outcome, your guess is mine.
Egypt and Sudan will be relentless. At the end, everyone will compromise. That is my take. Re: What is your prediction?
Blueshift wrote: ↑27 May 2021, 20:40Matt,
You asked broad questions, and you limited the answer to three of your very own possibilities. You should have left it open. I believe Abbiy will give in. He may have done so already. Tigray stays part of Ethiopia, and it elects a new government. TPLF continues surgical operations. Finally, EDF will withdraw from Tigray. Tigray will be a pseudo independent country within Ethiopia. US will go back to UN security council with evidence gathered. Outcome, your guess is mine. Egypt and Sudan will be relentless. At the end, everyone will compromise. That is my take.
The low IQ agames aka ተንከባላላይ ዘር are funny as hell. Keep dreaming, agame boy
Dedebit is always dedeb
R.I.P Abay Tigray and TPLF ዱቄት
Re: What is your prediction?
Hawzen,
I told the truth. Everyone knows your coward adgi trying to appease another adgi named Misraq ..Shyyt head, all these years, you must have all around adgi blood.
By the way, I touched a couple of nerves on your coward back, didn't I.
ዉሹማ ምስራቅ፣ ኣንታ ሑልኩስ ኣድጊ፣ ድርባይ፣ ኪድ ጥቦብ ሽልሖ ምስራቅ:ወሓጦ በስ ነእዱግ ከተሔጉስ እንታይ ጎቦ ዘይተሰቀልካ
Good job Misraq. Hawzen likes it mucho .
I told the truth. Everyone knows your coward adgi trying to appease another adgi named Misraq ..Shyyt head, all these years, you must have all around adgi blood.
By the way, I touched a couple of nerves on your coward back, didn't I. ዉሹማ ምስራቅ፣ ኣንታ ሑልኩስ ኣድጊ፣ ድርባይ፣ ኪድ ጥቦብ ሽልሖ ምስራቅ:ወሓጦ በስ ነእዱግ ከተሔጉስ እንታይ ጎቦ ዘይተሰቀልካ
..Is that it. Shyyyt head.Tenkobalalay zer...