GERD will change the Geopolitical Power Order in the Horn Africa and the Middle East
As of today Egypt is at the fore-front of the geopolitical games in the the Middle East. All superpowers need Egypt to operate in the Middle East. Egypt has also benefited from the Palestine-Israel conflict by keeping it unresolved and pretending as peace broker. Once the GERD is finalized Egypt will be at the mercy of Ethiopia( that will happen, if the Abiy government is not manipulated by Isaias to sign a zero sum agreement with Egypt), and if Ethiopia is going to have a smart leader Ethiopia will be leading the geopolitical game in Africa and in the Middle East. That will bring peace and stability, huge foreign direct investment and opportunity for very fast economic transformation for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. Tigray and Oromo alliance is also required to avoid breakdown of Ethiopia into two and to integrate the Horn Africa economically.
Re: GERD will change the Geopolitical Power Order in the Horn Africa and the Middle East
Axumzena,
I agree on the fact that Ethiopia will be a major power in the region. Its has a number of elements to be able that. The GERD will give her a big boost to that direction. Thats why Egypt is trying everything she can to halt Ethiopia's development. I can tell that Egypt's worry is not about water as she has got a huge amount of water resources. Aswan alone stores 160 BCM of water compared to the max capacity of GERD, which is 74 BCM of water. Egypt has also one of the biggest groundwater reserves which can be used for several 1000 years (about 150 Trillion Cubic Meters), a thousand times the capacity of Aswan Dam. Aswan can sustain Egypt for at least three years even (just if) no more flow is coming from Nile or is a complete dry year with no stream flows. From the resources she has got, Egypt can sustain for three thousand years without getting a single drop of Nile.
So, you see, Egypt is not in trouble with regard to water. Contrary to Egypt, Ethiopia will suffer a lot if she can't get rain for four to five consecutive years. So, why Egypt is crying on GERD ? As you said it, it is all about geopolitical power and Egypt fears that its political leverage in the region is waning. The very important thing Ethiopians must do is to settle differences and focus on agendas that would make this country great. When we do that, every corner of the country will be benefitted.
We are in the 21st century and we should think forward. Why at the cost of Ethiopians demis one would support Egypt? We may have differences but no matter what we should not sell our souls and pride to Egypt who wanted all the time to dictate on our resources. As to OLF and Tigray unity, never mind as long as they operate under the rules and laws of the country. That said, ethnic politics has served tplf. But its not anymore. Its expired. One has to be creative to reinforce our coexistence. Violence would never serve anyone. Some elite may benefit out of it but their own keens and siblings will not be spared one way or another.
I agree on the fact that Ethiopia will be a major power in the region. Its has a number of elements to be able that. The GERD will give her a big boost to that direction. Thats why Egypt is trying everything she can to halt Ethiopia's development. I can tell that Egypt's worry is not about water as she has got a huge amount of water resources. Aswan alone stores 160 BCM of water compared to the max capacity of GERD, which is 74 BCM of water. Egypt has also one of the biggest groundwater reserves which can be used for several 1000 years (about 150 Trillion Cubic Meters), a thousand times the capacity of Aswan Dam. Aswan can sustain Egypt for at least three years even (just if) no more flow is coming from Nile or is a complete dry year with no stream flows. From the resources she has got, Egypt can sustain for three thousand years without getting a single drop of Nile.
So, you see, Egypt is not in trouble with regard to water. Contrary to Egypt, Ethiopia will suffer a lot if she can't get rain for four to five consecutive years. So, why Egypt is crying on GERD ? As you said it, it is all about geopolitical power and Egypt fears that its political leverage in the region is waning. The very important thing Ethiopians must do is to settle differences and focus on agendas that would make this country great. When we do that, every corner of the country will be benefitted.
We are in the 21st century and we should think forward. Why at the cost of Ethiopians demis one would support Egypt? We may have differences but no matter what we should not sell our souls and pride to Egypt who wanted all the time to dictate on our resources. As to OLF and Tigray unity, never mind as long as they operate under the rules and laws of the country. That said, ethnic politics has served tplf. But its not anymore. Its expired. One has to be creative to reinforce our coexistence. Violence would never serve anyone. Some elite may benefit out of it but their own keens and siblings will not be spared one way or another.
Axumezana wrote: ↑02 Aug 2020, 23:22As of today Egypt is at the fore-front of the geopolitical games in the the Middle East. All superpowers need Egypt to operate in the Middle East. Egypt has also benefited from the Palestine-Israel conflict by keeping it unresolved and pretending as peace broker. Once the GERD is finalized Egypt will be at the mercy of Ethiopia( that will happen, if the Abiy government is not manipulated by Isaias to sign a zero sum agreement with Egypt), and if Ethiopia is going to have a smart leader Ethiopia will be leading the geopolitical game in Africa and in the Middle East. That will bring peace and stability, huge foreign direct investment and opportunity for very fast economic transformation for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. Tigray and Oromo alliance is also required to avoid breakdown of Ethiopia into two and to integrate the Horn Africa economically.
Re: GERD will change the Geopolitical Power Order in the Horn Africa and the Middle East
I had high expectation of Abiy to be a unifying factor, however, he has become a divisive factor as he has been trying to use the " divide and rule" model to maintain his power. The fact that he allowed foreigners( like Isaias) to manipulate our internal issues is also a huge problem. I agree the ethnicity focused governance is a problem but it is going to need a longer time to diffuse it out of the mind set of Ethiopians. However, respect, acceptance, and tolerance on religious, ethnicity, language, culture and other diversities is required for Ethiopia to exist and we should have a governance system that assures that.
Re: GERD will change the Geopolitical Power Order in the Horn Africa and the Middle East
Axumenzra, you filthy agames have no principle at all.
You are saying in this post that you want to see that Ethiopia don't disintegrate which I agree and the filthy dying agame should work together to protect Ethiopia from failing (as if you agames matter any more).
But yesterday you were begging us the Eritrean to bring you in our fold.......for tigray secession and unity of Eritrea and the useless tigray federation.
So, you qondaf agame when are you cowards to have a clear policy?
And you 100% know that the Eritrean people hate your agame tribe and the only wish we have is to unite you with your beggar, barren tigray dirt.
I advice you to protect your country Ethiopia to be safe, strong, one and prosper, which you just mentioned.
Stop flip flopping and stop begging Eritreans to forgive you or to forget your crimes.
I assure you that we the Eritreans will make you pay for your envious evil past actions.
Let me illustrate you the hate we have in you agames.
1.If the Ethiopians can bulldoze the entire tigray alongside its smelly supposedly innocent tegaru tribe, we will be happy to unite with Ethiopia.
2. We are a strong sovereign nation which proved time and again that we can defend our country any time against any enemy. But if push come to shove and we need help, we will be willing to unite Eritrea with the Sudan.
Do you see how far we would go to not bring you to our folds?
You are saying in this post that you want to see that Ethiopia don't disintegrate which I agree and the filthy dying agame should work together to protect Ethiopia from failing (as if you agames matter any more).
But yesterday you were begging us the Eritrean to bring you in our fold.......for tigray secession and unity of Eritrea and the useless tigray federation.
So, you qondaf agame when are you cowards to have a clear policy?
And you 100% know that the Eritrean people hate your agame tribe and the only wish we have is to unite you with your beggar, barren tigray dirt.
I advice you to protect your country Ethiopia to be safe, strong, one and prosper, which you just mentioned.
Stop flip flopping and stop begging Eritreans to forgive you or to forget your crimes.
I assure you that we the Eritreans will make you pay for your envious evil past actions.
Let me illustrate you the hate we have in you agames.
1.If the Ethiopians can bulldoze the entire tigray alongside its smelly supposedly innocent tegaru tribe, we will be happy to unite with Ethiopia.
2. We are a strong sovereign nation which proved time and again that we can defend our country any time against any enemy. But if push come to shove and we need help, we will be willing to unite Eritrea with the Sudan.
Do you see how far we would go to not bring you to our folds?