Mereja.Forum

[Aurorae Borealis]

From the West. It will be very interesting how he will deal with the intense pressure he is subjected to. Will he stand his ground ? Will he give in ? Time only will tell. Another critical issue is , whether he intends to institute strong central government over the existing federal Ethnic structure. This very issue can destroy the country itself. The issue brings Amhara vs. Oromo clash of the titans, Unending war! However, Abbiy's latest response to the international media indicates that he favors the strong democratic central government. Democratic, I doubt it. Ethiopia officially is at cross roads.

[sarcasm]

PIA has made his mind up that constitutional federalism has to end in Ethiopia. The first step is to remove TPLF as it was the last fortress of self-rule. He clearly said, “We will not try to convince them”.

The next step is to end constitutional federalism. Dr Abiy does not have any other options than to follow through Isaias’s and UAE / Saudi road map for Ethiopia. He knows he is not indispensable in their eyes. If he does not end constitutional federalism, Isaias has plan B and plan C leaders for Ethiopia, and he will not hesitate to remove Dr Abiy. When you pay as much as Eritrea has paid in this war, and when you have become the regional superpower in HoA, your needs and orders have to be met. You are not just another stakeholder trying to influence decisions. Dr Abiy cannot raise a sovereignty argument as he gave away the country's sovereignty for short-term gain.

[DefendTheTruth]

PIA has made his mind up that constitutional federalism has to end in Ethiopia. The first step is to remove TPLF as it was the last fortress of self-rule. He clearly said, “We will not try to convince them”.

The next step is to end constitutional federalism. Dr Abiy does not have any other options than to follow through Isaias’s and UAE / Saudi road map for Ethiopia. He knows he is not indispensable in their eyes. If he does not end constitutional federalism, Isaias has plan B and plan C leaders for Ethiopia, and he will not hesitate to remove Dr Abiy. When you pay as much as Eritrea has paid in this war, and when you have become the regional superpower in HoA, your needs and orders have to be met. You are not just another stakeholder trying to influence decisions. Dr Abiy cannot raise a sovereignty argument as he gave away the country's sovereignty for short-term gain.

Which means also, then, that President Isayas Afworki decided who should become the leader of Ethiopia at the time when PM Abiy Ahmed was elected to office?

If he didn't have a role in puting the leader into office, then he can't also be prepared to remove the same leader from the same office with two or more alternative options, when he deemed the official is unfit for that office, isn't it?

We heard many people claiming the responsibility of bringing the change, be it real or percieved, to themselves before and President Isaias Afworki will just be the last in the long list, in his case of course, the first from a foreign country to take claim of responsibility to himself.

If you may come back and would like to claim that he didn't influence the outcome of who should be in charge in Ethiopia, then how come he be prepared to change with plans B and C (and D, E wezeterfe)?

Just I am curious to know a bit more about the idea of your thesis .

[DefendTheTruth]

PIA has made his mind up that constitutional federalism has to end in Ethiopia. The first step is to remove TPLF as it was the last fortress of self-rule. He clearly said, “We will not try to convince them”.

The next step is to end constitutional federalism. Dr Abiy does not have any other options than to follow through Isaias’s and UAE / Saudi road map for Ethiopia. He knows he is not indispensable in their eyes. If he does not end constitutional federalism, Isaias has plan B and plan C leaders for Ethiopia, and he will not hesitate to remove Dr Abiy. When you pay as much as Eritrea has paid in this war, and when you have become the regional superpower in HoA, your needs and orders have to be met. You are not just another stakeholder trying to influence decisions. Dr Abiy cannot raise a sovereignty argument as he gave away the country's sovereignty for short-term gain.

At the same time President Isayas seemed to have been impressed by the message in the following music show, that was presented in his first official visit to Ethiopia after the so called second Ethio-Eritrea war of 1998 - 2000.

We are of the same mother (root),
How did we get separated,
Who distorted the rule (of governance),
Why do we go on a twisted road instead of taking the straight one,
Brother and Sister let's come together and have a discussion and get our issues resolved,

(just some samples of the essence of the message of the lyrics of this music, it is not an accurate translation).

[TGAA]

JFK once said " “victory has 100 fathers and defeat is an orphan.” Abiy took Unparalleled risk to further the reform early on . At the time he was encircled by Weyane security apparatus, and they could have sniffed his life at anytime. He also took the initiative to bring peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Sure, the peace initiative paid off when weyane decided to backstab Ethiopia at opportune time as usual. However those who are conjuring up as if Issyas going to decide what is going to happen in Ethiopia have to objectives, one to create a resentment against him , two to make him look powerless. Ethiopia needs federalism no doubt but not ethnic federalism. The Federal government role is going to be guarantying each and every citizen's right is respected and protected, making sure interstate treads going smoothly among different regions, and nurture Ethiopian nationalism in addition to regional one.

[Sam Ebalalehu]

I think at least for the moment Isayes seems to be number one enemy. The Amharas are not so. They would not however come to believe they are no longer the number one “enemy.” For now Isayes seems to enjoy that “ celebrity” status.

[Sadacha Macca]

Obbo Sarcasm,

If Isayas truly goes as far as trying to dismantle federalism, then no doubt, he has evil wishes for Ethiopia in his heart, while his tongue preaches good wishes for Ethiopia-because this will force more and more Oromo's, among others, to resist the resurgence of the old amara-elitist centralized state.

[Aurorae Borealis]

Guys,

Isayas is just an ally to Dr. Abbiy. Weyane is trying to use Isayas as the boogie man to scare the none amhara Ethiopians. Abbiy, good or bad, he is in control of the situation. Abbiy needed Isayas and Isayas needed Abbiy. Weyane was an enemy to both. I agree with TGAA, Ethiopia would do better with federalism not the old province with a strong government at the helm. Ethiopia can not go back to the old provinces one man rule of the past. But, doing away with the Ethnic delineation could be something to talk about. I believe Abbiy wants to be in control. If Abbiy crosses that line and become a dictator, then Ethiopia is done. But, if he democratizes the country and surrenders power to the people, the sky is the limit. Isayas needs to make amends with the Eritrean people. Give power back to the people and retire to a heroic tale of the struggle.

[sarcasm]

PIA has made his mind up that constitutional federalism has to end in Ethiopia. The first step is to remove TPLF as it was the last fortress of self-rule. He clearly said, “We will not try to convince them”.

The next step is to end constitutional federalism. Dr Abiy does not have any other options than to follow through Isaias’s and UAE / Saudi road map for Ethiopia. He knows he is not indispensable in their eyes. If he does not end constitutional federalism, Isaias has plan B and plan C leaders for Ethiopia, and he will not hesitate to remove Dr Abiy. When you pay as much as Eritrea has paid in this war, and when you have become the regional superpower in HoA, your needs and orders have to be met. You are not just another stakeholder trying to influence decisions. Dr Abiy cannot raise a sovereignty argument as he gave away the country's sovereignty for short-term gain.

Which means also, then, that President Isayas Afworki decided who should become the leader of Ethiopia at the time when PM Abiy Ahmed was elected to office?

If he didn't have a role in puting the leader into office, then he can't also be prepared to remove the same leader from the same office with two or more alternative options, when he deemed the official is unfit for that office, isn't it?

We heard many people claiming the responsibility of bringing the change, be it real or percieved, to themselves before and President Isaias Afworki will just be the last in the long list, in his case of course, the first from a foreign country to take claim of responsibility to himself.

If you may come back and would like to claim that he didn't influence the outcome of who should be in charge in Ethiopia, then how come he be prepared to change with plans B and C (and D, E wezeterfe)?

Just I am curious to know a bit more about the idea of your thesis .

The thought that just because he was not involved in Abiy coming to power, he cannot have a role in removing him is not logical. The people who removed TPLF from power in Addis, did not have a role in putting them to power.

Abiy has had the support of a lot groupings / sections at the beginning. He has lost the support of each and every section over the past 2 years. With the Tigray War, he lost the confidence of the EU, US, funds providers etc. His continuation in power depends now on PIA and Amhara political class who have ending the constitutional federation as their top priority. You have to remember that the Tigray War changed the the pecking order in the Horn. Abiy has came out a lot weaker than anytime before. The UN report is saying that the Amhara Region Army is outside his control. He cannot tell Eritrea to get out of Tigray. Therefore, if Abiy could not provide their top priority, they will not hesitate to remove him. Watch the other parts of the interview if you have time.

Obbo Sadacha Macca,

It is not not about evil or good wishes. It is all about self-interest and worldview.

[DefendTheTruth]

Guys,

Isayas is just an ally to Dr. Abbiy. Weyane is trying to use Isayas as the boogie man to scare the none amhara Ethiopians. Abbiy, good or bad, he is in control of the situation. Abbiy needed Isayas and Isayas needed Abbiy. Weyane was an enemy to both. I agree with TGAA, Ethiopia would do better with federalism not the old province with a strong government at the helm. Ethiopia can not go back to the old provinces one man rule of the past. But, doing away with the Ethnic delineation could be something to talk about. I believe Abbiy wants to be in control. If Abbiy crosses that line and become a dictator, then Ethiopia is done. But, if he democratizes the country and surrenders power to the people, the sky is the limit. Isayas needs to make amends with the Eritrean people. Give power back to the people and retire to a heroic tale of the struggle.

In my little understanding of politics it is not if Abiy is in control or someone else. It is about the soverignity of a great nation, that was the pioneer of independence of the black race of post colonialism and slavery of the new world.

We are the descendants of the heroes of Adawa and children of the Arbegnoch that kicked the modern european power 2 times in its Ar$$ and sent it back to where it came from in no time.

If this (soverignity of Ethiopia) is to be guaranteed at the will of Obbo Isayas, then Abiy Ahmed has already lost and he will be part of history in no more time as well. But I think he is not someone who will miss this critical point.

Your country fellow seems to be over consuming the news sold to him as such from the so called digital woyane sources.

In reality every corner of the country has rallied behind the PM after the war and he enjoys more popularity in the whole of the aftermaths of his winning of the Nobel Prize right now.

Don't tell me he, your country fellow, is trying to impress some Ethiopian Review Forum's participants with his information gained from digital woyane sources.

[Aurorae Borealis]

Defend,

Sarcasm aka Eden is not Eritrean. Actually, she is the worst Eritrean enemy on the forum. She is Tigrayan.

[Za-Ilmaknun]

From the West. It will be very interesting how he will deal with the intense pressure he is subjected to. Will he stand his ground ? Will he give in ? Time only will tell. Another critical issue is , whether he intends to institute strong central government over the existing federal Ethnic structure. This very issue can destroy the country itself. The issue brings Amhara vs. Oromo clash of the titans, Unending war! However, Abbiy's latest response to the international media indicates that he favors the strong democratic central government. Democratic, I doubt it. Ethiopia officially is at cross roads.

The so called pressure from outside will definitely be none existent in a few weeks once TPLF cadre's deception campaign fails nose dive and when the payment to their lobbyists gets dry.

The internal pressure will continue but not from the Oromo government changing the federal structure but from those who fights for their rights be respected under any structure. Those who are noisy about the the fear of Federal structure change are those who are confused about what they need from their government. It is identity politics that we have and it won't be gone until those who fight for equality and representation forced its demise.

[Aurorae Borealis]

Z and co.,
Which type of government do you prefer for Ethiopia.
1. Ethnic based decentralized federal government
2. Decentralized Federal government which is not based on Ethnic federation
3. Centralized strong government with sub-region local governmental units ( such as kifle hagers).
And why?

[Za-Ilmaknun]

"A major reason for the failure of federal systems has often been a lack of balance among the constituent polities. In the German federal empire of the late 19th century, Prussia was so dominant that the other states had little opportunity to provide national leadership or even a reasonably strong alternative to the policy of the king and government. During the Soviet era (1917–90/91), the existence of the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic—occupying three-fourths of the area and containing three-fifths of the population—severely limited the possibility of authentic federal relationships in that country even if the communist system had not."

"Successful operation of federal systems requires a particular kind of political environment, one that is conducive to popular government and has the requisite traditions of political cooperation and self-restraint."

All we need to see is a system of Federal structure where all people and individuals are represented, have their culture, language and identity respected, where access to government services, be it local or Federal, are granted to all regardless of their ethnic origin, and people be empowered to administer themselves in their locality. Politicized identity and mob politics is only a vehicle for ethnic opportunists to enrich themselves without any kind of accountability and a potent weapon to discriminate people and finally disintegrate the country itself.. We are seeing that in real time in our country as we speak.

[Aurorae Borealis]

Z,

That is an awesome analysis. I believe, an open dialog among the stake holders (civic associations), leaders of all ethnic groups is very critical to mold the best system for Ethiopia. Many none amhara Ethiopian groups are wary of the past. That should be taken into consideration. The challenge is to dispel that worry. I believe the best system for Ethiopia is the federal system of the US or Switzerland kind. An Oromo, Amhara or any other Ethiopian should be a total owner of Ethiopia whether he lives in Bahrdar or Jimma. I am allergic to dictators. The people should have the ultimate voice. Egalitarian representation for all groups and individuals should be honored. No one should be a loser in the system. Africa is a junk yard. Good luck for that. Calling each other stupid names is childish. Ethiopia needs a change. Not the old system. I don't see how Oromos can lose whether the ethnic nature is kept or not. But, minority groups are the ones who could lose one way or the other. Open, transparent and honest conversation is required. As a neighbor, I want Ethiopia to be successful. It would be nice to have forumers like Sadacha to have an input in this matter.