Is Dr. Abiy a Cvnning Amapianist or a Smart Oropianist?
By Fayyis Oropia*
It is becoming clear that Dr Abiy prefers geographical federation to ethnic federation. But, is his vision Amapia—an Amharic-dominated Ethiopia—or Oropia—an Oromic-led Ethiopia? If it is the former, then he is essentially a cvnning Amhara politician dressed in Oromo clothing. If it is the latter, then he is a strategically smarter Oromo nationalist than even the OLF and OFC nationalists, pursuing his objective through a broader Ethiopian political framework
It appears that the OLF’s kàyyô of an independent Oromia, rooted in an era of low political confidence, has largely come to an end. The OFC’s vision of a federal Orompia (an Oromic-led ethnic federation), reflecting an intermediate level of political confidence, is well suited to the current transitional period.
The OPP’s emerging vision of Oropia—an Oromic-led geo-federation—represents the highest level of political confidence and, arguably, the most beneficial form of shared sovereignty. This is a vision I can wholeheartedly endorse. The key question, however, is whether the OPP is genuinely committed to realizing Oropia or whether it ultimately intends to restore Amapia—an Amharic-dominated geo-federation.
Political Trajectories of Ethiopia’s Major Elite Groups
The political trajectories of Ethiopia’s two largest elite groups—the Amhara and the Oromo—have undergone significant transformation over recent decades.
Historically, Amhara political elites largely defended a centralized, unitary state. In recent years, however, many have come to accept ethnic federalism, while some now even advocate the establishment of an independent Amhara state.
Oromo political elites have followed an almost opposite trajectory. Emerging from a history of political marginalization and limited agency, Oromo movements initially centered their struggle on self-determination and independence. Over time, however, many Oromo political actors have embraced broader and more integrative political visions extending beyond ethnic nationalism.
This transformation reflects growing political confidence, strategic adaptation, and evolving interpretations of history. The development of Oromo political thought can be understood in three major stages: the pursuit of an independent Oromia, the advocacy of Orompia—an Oromic-led multinational federation—and the emerging vision of Oropia, an integrative Oromic-led geo-federal polity within Ethiopia.
From Independence to Integration: The Evolution of Oromo Political Thought
The demand for an independent Oromia constituted the foundational phase of the Oromo national movement. Leaders such as Galasa Dilbo and organizations like the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) regarded independence as the necessary response to systematic exclusion, political repression, and cultural marginalization. In this context, independence symbolized survival, dignity, and liberation.
As Oromo political confidence and organizational capacity increased, a second vision gained prominence: multinational federalism. Associated with figures such as Lencho Leta and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), this model promotes meaningful self-rule within a democratic federal framework. It represents an intermediate stage of political confidence by balancing regional autonomy with national cooperation.
More recently, a third and more ambitious vision has begun to emerge: Oropia. Originally articulated by Haile Fida, this concept envisions an integrative Ethiopian state guided by Oromic political culture, with Afaan Oromo serving as the principal federal working language. Oromo leadership is understood not as ethnic domination but as inclusive democratic stewardship capable of integrating Ethiopia’s diverse peoples.
Oropia as a Geo-Federal State
Under this high-confidence vision, Oropia would replace today’s large ethno-regional states with smaller, geographically defined federal regions. The objective is to reduce ethnic polarization while preserving linguistic, cultural, and democratic rights.
A possible geo-federal arrangement could include regions such as Afar, Tigray, Wolqayit, Begemdir, Gojjam, Wollo, Shoa, Benishangul–Metekel, Gambella, Wollega, Jimma, Hararge, Arsi–Bale, Borana–Guji, Sidama, Wolayta, Omo, Southwest Ethiopia, Central Ethiopia, and Somali-inhabited regions such as Isa, Ogaden, and Garre. Finfinne (Addis Ababa) would serve as the federal capital with multilingual administrative functions.
This model seeks to reconcile national unity, regional diversity, and democratic governance through territorial rather than exclusively ethnic federalism.
Strategic Reorientation of the Oromo Liberation Front
If the vision of Oropia is to become politically viable, the OLF may eventually need to adopt a broader strategic orientation. While the demand for independence was historically justified during the liberation struggle, and federalism remains appropriate during the current transitional period, long-term political leadership requires articulating a more inclusive national vision.
A central component of this strategic reorientation involves reinterpreting symbols historically associated with the Ethiopian state. These include:
- Andinet (Unity)
- Ethiopiawinet (Ethiopianism)
- the green-yellow-red national flag
- Orthodox Christianity as a shared cultural heritage
- collective historical milestones such as the Battle of Adwa
- citizenship-based national identity (Zeginet)
- the continued use of Amharic as a secondary federal working language
Reframing these symbols within an inclusive, Oromo-centered narrative could facilitate broader cross-ethnic alliances while reducing the appeal of exclusionary nationalism.
Three Stages of Oromo Political Evolution
The evolution of Oromo political thought may be analytically summarized as three successive stages corresponding to increasing levels of political confidence.
- Low Confidence (Past): Independent Oromia; associated primarily with Galasa Dilbo and the OLF, this stage emphasized liberation, resistance, and national sovereignty.
- Intermediate Confidence (Present): Federal Orompia; promoted by Lencho Leta and the OFC, this stage advocates multinational federalism that combines regional autonomy with democratic power sharing.
- High Confidence (Future): Integrative Oropia; inspired by Haile Fida, this vision proposes a geo-federal Ethiopia guided by Afaan Oromo as the principal federal language and by the democratic principles of the Gadaa system.
Historical Narratives and Models of Sovereignty
These three political stages also correspond to different historical narratives and comparative models of statehood.
- Conflict-centered narrative — Russian model; this perspective emphasizes historical oppression and therefore favors full independence and sovereign statehood.
- Mixed narrative of conflict and coexistence — British model; this interpretation supports substantial autonomy within a federal constitutional order.
- Shared historical narrative — Indian model; this perspective emphasizes coexistence and envisions democratic leadership within a unified, pluralistic state.
Conclusion
Despite their ideological differences, the various strands of Oromo political thought share two enduring objectives: liberation from domination and the establishment of democratic governance.
Once these goals have been secured, the final constitutional arrangement should be determined democratically, ideally through a popular referendum.
Three principal constitutional options remain conceivable:
- Independent Oromia
- Federal Orompia
- Integrative Oropia
These correspond to three successive phases of Oromo political aspiration:
- Kàyyô Ganamà — the initial objective: independence.
- Kàyyô Guyyà — the pragmatic objective: federal union.
- Kàyyô Galgalà — the ultimate objective: integrative democratic leadership.
From this perspective, the Oromo political movement is best understood not as a static ideology but as an evolving political project—progressing from resistance, through coexistence, toward inclusive leadership within a democratic and united Ethiopia.
Galatôma!
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/06/1 ... ederation/