Mereja.Forum

[Horus]

The actualization of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with and its formal recognition of Somaliand would be severe geopolitical defeat for It would effectively shatter Cairo’s containment strategy and alter the balance of power in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Because Egypt relies on keeping Ethiopia landlocked and regionally isolated to maintain leverage over the Nile dispute, actualizing the MoU hits Cairo where it hurts most. The ripple effects on Egypt manifest across four major strategic arenas: [6, 7, 8, 9]

## 1. The Collapse of Egypt’s Encirclement Strategy
Egypt's primary method of forcing Ethiopia into a binding water treaty has been "encirclement"—primarily by using a defense pact with the Federal Government of Somalia to place Egyptian troops and heavy armor right on Ethiopia’s eastern border. [10, 11, 12]

* The Effect: If Ethiopia officially recognizes Somaliland and establishes a permanent maritime corridor, it cuts right through Egypt's containment ring. Somaliland acts as a massive geographic buffer between Ethiopia and the hostile, Egyptian-backed government in Mogadishu. This neutralizes Egypt’s ability to use Somalia as an effective launchpad for military or psychological pressure against Addis Ababa. [13, 14]

## 2. Loss of Leverage Over the Nile (The Hydro-Political Link) [11, 15]
Egypt uses its maritime dominance and regional alliances to signal that it can bottleneck Ethiopia's trade if a water crisis erupts over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). [16]

* The Effect: For decades, Ethiopia has been vulnerable because 95% of its trade relies on Djibouti. By diversifying its logistics and establishing an independent economic corridor via the Port of Berbera, Ethiopia massively increases its economic resilience. With less fear of a maritime blockade or trade disruption, Addis Ababa becomes even more unyielding in Nile water negotiations, making it virtually impossible for Egypt to force a binding treaty. [11, 17, 18, 19, 20]

## 3. A New Threat to Egypt’s Red Sea and Suez Canal Monopoly [21, 22]
Egypt views the Red Sea as its exclusive strategic backyard and a vital economic artery, as tolls from the Suez Canal are essential for Egypt's fragile economy. Cairo has explicitly stated that a landlocked nation like Ethiopia has no business establishing a military foothold in these waters. [3, 23, 24, 25, 26]

* The Effect: The MoU grants Ethiopia a 50-year lease to build a permanent naval base on the Gulf of Aden. The arrival of an Ethiopian Navy—backed heavily by the UAE, which manages the Berbera port, and operating alongside an increasingly recognized Somaliland—directly challenges Egypt's historic naval hegemony in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Furthermore, a highly militarized, unstable Horn of Africa could scare off international shipping, threatening Egypt's vital Suez Canal revenues. [2, 11, 17, 27, 28]

## 4. Severe Complications with Key Arab and Western Allies [9]
The realization of the MoU would force Egypt into awkward, high-stakes diplomatic friction with its own partners.

* The Israel-UAE Component: Israel formally recognized Somaliland, and Somaliland has advanced its alignment with Western frameworks, including moves to open an embassy in Jerusalem. Simultaneously, the UAE is the main financial driver behind Somaliland's port and Ethiopia’s economy. Egypt receives billions in financial bailouts from the UAE and maintains a peace treaty with Israel. If Ethiopia actualizes the MoU, Egypt cannot easily strike or heavily sanction the new arrangement without directly alienating the very Gulf and international actors keeping its own economy afloat. [9, 13, 27, 29, 30]

## Summary Verdict
For Egypt, the actualization of the MoU represents an alarming reality where Ethiopia transforms from a contained, landlocked state into a sovereign, seafaring Red Sea power. It leaves Egypt's troop deployment in Somalia stranded in an increasingly fragmented region, rendering its primary geopolitical sticks against Ethiopia largely ineffective. [9, 31, 32]

[1] [https://navantigroup.com](https://navantigroup.com/featured/somal ... ng-crisis/)
[2] [https://rsisinternational.org](https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ ... -concerns/)
[3] [https://www.thenationalnews.com](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/me ... cognition/)
[4] [https://saxafimedia.com](https://saxafimedia.com/egypt-blockade- ... omaliland/)
[5] [https://somalilandchronicle.com](https://somalilandchronicle.com/2024/06 ... -ethiopia/)
[6] [https://hornobserver.com](https://hornobserver.com/articles/3372/ ... ty-Threats)
[7] [https://www.facebook.com](https://www.facebook.com/cgtnafrica/pos ... 056684575/)
[8] [https://hornreview.org](https://hornreview.org/2025/05/31/relig ... ddle-east/)
[9] [https://www.hiiraan.com](https://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2026/Feb/ ... a_now.aspx)
[10] [https://hornreview.org](https://hornreview.org/2026/04/02/egypt ... -ethiopia/)
[11] [https://hornreview.org](https://hornreview.org/2026/02/06/cairo ... opolitics/)
[12] [https://www.ethiopia-insight.com](https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2025/1 ... n-somalia/)
[13] [https://arlaadimedia.com](https://arlaadimedia.com/2026/01/14/rep ... cognition/)
[14] [https://thesomalidigest.com](https://thesomalidigest.com/hawiye-elde ... -presence/)
[15] [https://www.theafricareport.com](https://www.theafricareport.com/152929/ ... -ethiopia/)
[16] [https://arabcenterdc.org](https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/egypt ... f-of-aden/)
[17] [https://www.facebook.com](https://www.facebook.com/Greatafrica6/p ... 258730558/)
[18] [https://www.youtube.com](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxMXKVQaOYM)
[19] [https://mecouncil.org](https://mecouncil.org/blog_posts/ethiop ... cil-views/)
[20] [https://www.rosalux.de](https://www.rosalux.de/en/news/id/54214 ... -of-africa)
[21] [https://kalingainternational.com](https://kalingainternational.com/Niranj ... ani23.html)
[22] [https://saxafimedia.com](https://saxafimedia.com/egypt-blockade- ... omaliland/)
[23] [https://www.rosalux.de](https://www.rosalux.de/en/news/id/51729 ... in-decline)
[24] [https://www.washingtoninstitute.org](https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pol ... -conflicts)
[25] [https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/ne ... ia-4777986)
[26] [https://thefuturemedia.eu](https://thefuturemedia.eu/egypts-econom ... -shipping/)
[27] [https://somalilandchronicle.com](https://somalilandchronicle.com/2026/06 ... hard-part/)
[28] [https://www.dw.com](https://www.dw.com/en/el-sissi-says-egy ... a-68048226)
[29] [https://www.egypttoday.com](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/14 ... en-embassy)
[30] [https://www.blackagendareport.com](https://www.blackagendareport.com/saudi ... nd-red-sea)
[31] [https://www.eyeradio.org](https://www.eyeradio.org/somaliland-def ... h-ethiopi/)
[32] [https://www.instagram.com](https://www.instagram.com/reel/DUqpTFlCbvM/)

[Fiyameta]

[Tiago]

ንፍራህ

[Zack]

Ethiopia basically cancelled the mou when they signed the ankara agreement .. Ethiopia couldn’t hold its end of the deal recognise Somaliland in exchange for sea access. Yet for months Ethiopia just entertained the idea eventually turkey got Ethiopia and told her to drop it and they did . Even today if abiye wants to revive it I don’t think Somaliland would want it why would they allow an Ethiopian naval base on its shores. Prior to Israeli recogntion of Somaliland was so desperate for recognition all Ethiopia had to do was recognise Somaliland independence. And Somaliland would give sea access plus navy base to Ethiopia sweet deal innit. I mean what would recogntion of Somaliland bring against Ethiopia yeah few backclash perhaps Arab league condemnation and china but yeah nothing u can’t handle one could think but what Somaliland didn’t know is Ethiopia is weak it really bows to pressure ir can’t handle backclassh. I followed the backclassh of Israeli recognition of Somaliland Islamic conference Arab league Arab parliament all press release but Israel just doesn’t care on top of that they send gideon saar to hargeisa to open more wounds . Ethiopia can’t do that it doesn’t have those balls. Ethiopia is a starving balles country .in a sense Israeli recognition in a sense stopped and killed the mou . Now landers aren’t desperate for recognition from Ethiopia.’ Naval base free port is now off the table . So in a sense the Jews did us good and Somaliland is in lign with Djibouti Somalia and Eritrea to keep Ethiopia landlocked because we all gain from Ethiopia being landlocked

Dr Zackovich

[Horus]

Zack,
I disagree. Abiy Ahmed would have been most happy if he was able to actualize MOU with an acceptable amount of side effects. The entire Ethiopian foreign policy, foreign relations, the macroeconomic reform and Abiy's national plan would have collapse. In fact, that would have been Egypt's feast day. It was way too, too much of a historic national risk for Ethiopia. Remember not a single country on planet earth supported Ethiopia, not one.

Now, you might rightly ask why then did Abiy initiate the whole process? That I have no good answer.

But consider that Somaliland existed for 30 years under states of uncertainty and ambiguity. In this day and age, a lot of our realities are just that - VUCA - volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. I say this because Ethiopia and Somaliland are still the closest allies, with Israel, UAE, India and others cooking something we don't know.

One thing you must always keep in mind for Ethiopia the clear, present danger is Egypt. Ethiopia will not create a condition for Egypt to harm us.

I posted the above AI analysis because for Ethiopia to solve the Egyptian problem is some how to get on to the Bab El Mendeb and pose equal threat on the Suez Canal. That is only when Egypt is going to keep her hands off Ethiopia.

It is also true that the Somaliland struggle for recognition is not done yet. We will see a lot more storms and uprisings in our region. It is not over until it is over.

[sesame]

HorseAss,

You don't seem to have grasped the elementary fact that those who survive on alms can't act as they wish. Ethiopia is a beggar nation and must thus do what its masters tell it to do. Abiy thought his masters would allow him to recognize Somaliland but his masters said no.

BTW, horsey, some masters are now suing Abiy because he is unable to pay!

ያሳዝናል፣ የዩሮቦንድ አበዳሪዎች የኢትዮጵያን መንግስት ላይ ክስ ሊመሰርቱ እንደሆነ አሳውቀዋል፣ ክሱ የሚቀርበው ድርድሩ በተደረገበት በሀገረ እንግሊዝ ነው። #አብይ አህመድ የሚመራው መንግስት ላይ እንደሚፈረድበት ጥርጥር የለውም።

[Horus]

Sesame
The fact that you respond to everything I say about the Red sea shows how worried you are. But remember, the Red sea is the very existence of Ethiopia. You will have no choice on the matter. We are breaking out onto the Red sea by means of peace or by means of war. It is yours to choose which path fits your well being.

[Fiyameta]

[Horus]

ፊፊ
አሁን ብሽሽቅ ዋጋ አለው? 400,000 ይቺን የኢትዮጵያ ኑሮ ቀምሰው ገና የቀሩትን በድብቅ ወዳሲሳባ እያሸሹ ነው! አንተ አገር የሚያቆም ሕዝብ እንኳ የለህም! ችግርህ አገር እንዳለው መልፋትህ ነው!

[sesame]

HorseAss,

Two years ago, Ethiopia defaulted on a mere $30 million interest payment. As a result, it was forced to devalue the Birr causing enormous pain on its people. And now, it can't pay again because the PP dimwits think building dimlights is more important than protecting your people from economis disasters. What a bunch of idiots.

[Horus]

HorseAss,

Two years ago, Ethiopia defaulted on a mere $30 million interest payment. As a result, it was forced to devalue the Birr causing enormous pain on its people. And now, it can't pay again because the PP dimwits think building dimlights is more important than protecting your people from economis disasters. What a bunch of idiots.

Fifi
who cares. right now world is lined up to put their money here in Ethiopia. Does that show trust or fear. Your fear that really, all of Eritrean will decide to migrate to Ethiopia. The only war we fight with you is the Red sea. The rest we will swallow you by the power of our civilization. All of Horn people will migrate to Ethiopia.

[sesame]

HorseAss,

You are hallucinating again. You are in deep denial. Otherwise, you'd ave seen what everybody sees that Ethiopiia is DEAD! Can you imagine, the Tigrayans, Amharas, Oromos, Somalis and Afars will ever live peacefully in one nation. Nah!

It is alawless jungle outathere. Checkout how lawless here!

የሾፌሮች አንደበት

HorseAss,

Two years ago, Ethiopia defaulted on a mere $30 million interest payment. As a result, it was forced to devalue the Birr causing enormous pain on its people. And now, it can't pay again because the PP dimwits think building dimlights is more important than protecting your people from economis disasters. What a bunch of idiots.

Fifi
who cares. right now world is lined up to put their money here in Ethiopia. Does that show trust or fear. Your fear that really, all of Eritrean will decide to migrate to Ethiopia. The only war we fight with you is the Red sea. The rest we will swallow you by the power of our civilization. All of Horn people will migrate to Ethiopia.

[Fiyameta]

[Jikaar]

Your recognition is worth nothing for us , Ethiopia is too poor and they are cowards, you can easily be pressured by China or Turkey, so we have nothing to gain from you. And your prime minister is a joke. Every day he wakes up " I want sea" no body cares what you want. The only thing that matters is what we want. We demand 20% of your territory the entire hawd and reserve area including jijiga.

[Horus]

Your recognition is worth nothing for us , Ethiopia is too poor and they are cowards, you can easily be pressured by China or Turkey, so we have nothing to gain from you. And your prime minister is a joke. Every day he wakes up " I want sea" no body cares what you want. The only thing that matters is what we want. We demand 20% of your territory the entire hawd and reserve area including jijiga.

አንቺ ሻቢያ ስምሽን እየለዋወጥሽ ብቅ ትያለሽ!

Believe me the coward Egypt will not save you, can not protect you. We will take our port back at our own timing.

[Jikaar]

Your recognition is worth nothing for us , Ethiopia is too poor and they are cowards, you can easily be pressured by China or Turkey, so we have nothing to gain from you. And your prime minister is a joke. Every day he wakes up " I want sea" no body cares what you want. The only thing that matters is what we want. We demand 20% of your territory the entire hawd and reserve area including jijiga.

አንቺ ሻቢያ ስምሽን እየለዋወጥሽ ብቅ ትያለሽ!

Believe me the coward Egypt will not save you, can not protect you. We will take our port back at our own timing.

You know I am Somalilander. Let's put aside the Eritrean boogeyman. In 2016, we and the UAE offered you 19% of our port shares, you failed to fulfill your duties. Why? Even Kenya, Djibouti and Sudan gave you similar deals. You never took advantage of any of those opportunities. Ethiopia doesn't lack access to the sea. It wants 100% ownership without puting any efforts. You are expecting miracles to happen. I tell you the truth that will only work for you if you invade Eritrea and take assab by force and claim that it used to be yours.

No Somali is giving you free lunch. We have to gain something from you. In other words we are open for business. We are not entertaining your fantasies.

[Zack]

Zack,
I disagree. Abiy Ahmed would have been most happy if he was able to actualize MOU with an acceptable amount of side effects. The entire Ethiopian foreign policy, foreign relations, the macroeconomic reform and Abiy's national plan would have collapse. In fact, that would have been Egypt's feast day. It was way too, too much of a historic national risk for Ethiopia. Remember not a single country on planet earth supported Ethiopia, not one.

Now, you might rightly ask why then did Abiy initiate the whole process? That I have no good answer.

But consider that Somaliland existed for 30 years under states of uncertainty and ambiguity. In this day and age, a lot of our realities are just that - VUCA - volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. I say this because Ethiopia and Somaliland are still the closest allies, with Israel, UAE, India and others cooking something we don't know.

One thing you must always keep in mind for Ethiopia the clear, present danger is Egypt. Ethiopia will not create a condition for Egypt to harm us.

I posted the above AI analysis because for Ethiopia to solve the Egyptian problem is some how to get on to the Bab El Mendeb and pose equal threat on the Suez Canal. That is only when Egypt is going to keep her hands off Ethiopia.

It is also true that the Somaliland struggle for recognition is not done yet. We will see a lot more storms and uprisings in our region. It is not over until it is over.

i will tell you what his motives were abiye
Hé inniated the mou just to test waters it wasn’t really. For it to become a. Treaty had he want it to become a treaty and him getting a sea access was a real thing and he wanted it cost by cost he would of told the Chinese and the turks to f off. But he didn’t. So him getting sea access wasn’t that important after all it was all smokes screen hé just wanted to know how far hé would go . Perhaps with future wars with Eritrea . If there will be backclash Somalia and Eritrea are the same both are sovreign country . Now if he was smart he would have recognised Somaliland with out condition in order to then say he made an agreement with a sovreing state. But erhiopia cannot recognise Somaliland. Because Somalia is far to important for Ethiopia in comparion to Somaliland if Ethiopia recognise Somaliland then Ethiopia will lose it’s troops in Somalia and Egypte will replace them Hahaa

Ethiopia is toast either way

Dr Zackovich

[Horus]

Zack,
You are looking at only Ethio-Somaliland relations. Put yourself in Ethiopian shoes and look at the whole regional dynamics. Example - Abiy could not say fu to China and Turkey (the largest traders and investors in Ethiopia). China is #1 or 2 (next to UAE) . #3 Turkey. Turkey has turned Somalia into its colony and largest military base with a treaty to protect Somalia. Egypt while competing with Turkey for a foothold in Somalia constantly looks for an Ethiopian mistake to encircle Ethiopia and get a binding treaty on the GEDR. US wants to pressure Ethiopia to stay away from China and Russia. In the mean time all sorts of internal armed fronts want to destabilize and if they can dismember Ethiopia. Actualization of MOU 2 years ago would have made all of these dangers real present and eminent. Just look at what the completion of GERD has achieved. It has reshaped the Red sea and Horn geopolitics. Today Ethiopia is a much stronger position - Israel in Somaliland, Egypt pretty much kicked out of Somalia, kicked out of South Sudan, Nile basin countries self-asserting, Ethiopia actively supporting RSF to block our border from TPLF and Fano, India coming into the mix of things ,etc we are in a much stronger position to actualize the MOU. Consider what Iran war has done to the security of Red - Bab El Mendeb and Suaez Canal! - etc. As for the 19% share in Berbera deal, I don't know its current status but at that time Ethiopia simply could not come up with the money on the date she was suppose to do. But as we speak, all kinds of port deals are being made between Irro and Abiy. Ethio-telecom is SLR, our commercial bank is in SLR and I am sure there are zillions of secret deals between us. I see nothing but great future between our two countries.

[Jikaar]

In Somaliland we don't give a f about China, Turkey Egypt and their allies. They have no laverage over us.

The only common enemy we had with Ethiopia was Egypt. But we are about to neutralise our relationship. Egypt is no longer threat to us. We pushed them to the South, they avoid Israel sphere of influence . Now they are building up massive military presence in southern zoomalia. Training the fano terrorists. They are also assisting the TPLF/ Eritrea front against Ethiopia.

Ethiopia number one enemies now are Fano and Egypt.

[Dark Energy]

Somali Lander idiot Jaakar,

Assab was never Ethiopian property . Neither was the mother land of Assab called Eritrea. That is actualized legally in 1993. The little big mouth Galla has achieved his goal, being re-elected. That is all. I do think that the idiot in Eritrea allowed him to do so. If the little Galla dares to invade Eritrea, Ethiopia will be no more. He won’t dare to do that. Assab could never be part of Ethiopia legally. The effort is futile. Eritreans need to deal with the enemy within once for good,