TPLF between a rock and a hard place
Posted: 07 May 2026, 17:34
TPLF’s current move to restore the old, illegitimate government appears to be an act of desperation. The goal seems to be pressuring the federal government into restoring TPLF’s legal status so it can participate in the upcoming “election”. The timing and all available signs suggest that TPLF urgently wants to become a recognized political party and compete in an “election” it hopes will allow it to legally govern Tigray once again, at least for the next five years.
This is not the behavior of an organization determined to wage war and topple the regime in Addis Ababa. This is a desperate organization fighting for its own survival.
However, this move carries serious risks. The most likely outcome is that Abiy simply ignores TPLF and cuts Tigray off entirely. That would push TPLF into yet another desperate attempt to pressure the federal government through military force, ultimately leading to a resumption of armed conflict.
A second, less likely scenario is that the federal government restores TPLF’s party status and allows it to contest the “election”, ushering in a period of cooperation between the two sides. This, however, could reignite tensions with Eritrea, as the Eritrean government may interpret the move as Abiy seeking Tigray’s support for his own ambitions.
TPLF does not want to remove Abiy from power, largely because it does not fully trust Eritrea or Fano. Instead, it is trying to walk a fine line by applying just enough pressure to get the federal government to accept it as a partner. The problem is that Abiy has zero trust in TPLF and is unwilling to send budget funds to a Tigray firmly under TPLF’s control.
Whether TPLF intends it or not, it appears to be maneuvering itself toward an armed conflict one way or another. Indeed, it’s between a rock and a hard place.
This is not the behavior of an organization determined to wage war and topple the regime in Addis Ababa. This is a desperate organization fighting for its own survival.
However, this move carries serious risks. The most likely outcome is that Abiy simply ignores TPLF and cuts Tigray off entirely. That would push TPLF into yet another desperate attempt to pressure the federal government through military force, ultimately leading to a resumption of armed conflict.
A second, less likely scenario is that the federal government restores TPLF’s party status and allows it to contest the “election”, ushering in a period of cooperation between the two sides. This, however, could reignite tensions with Eritrea, as the Eritrean government may interpret the move as Abiy seeking Tigray’s support for his own ambitions.
TPLF does not want to remove Abiy from power, largely because it does not fully trust Eritrea or Fano. Instead, it is trying to walk a fine line by applying just enough pressure to get the federal government to accept it as a partner. The problem is that Abiy has zero trust in TPLF and is unwilling to send budget funds to a Tigray firmly under TPLF’s control.
Whether TPLF intends it or not, it appears to be maneuvering itself toward an armed conflict one way or another. Indeed, it’s between a rock and a hard place.
