Oromo Elites Need to Differentiate Between two Northern Forces: Seftegnas and Semocrats
By Fayyis Oromia*
Introduction
There is growing concern among segments of the Oromo public regarding the cooperation of certain Oromo republican actors with northern political forces in opposition to the ruling Heftegna (hybrid-neftegna) establishment led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This concern underscores the necessity for Oromo elites to carefully distinguish between two fundamentally different types of northern forces: Seftegna and Semocratic actors.
Seftegna (Semenawi-neftegna) forces—such as Fanno, Shabiya, and Woyane—are widely perceived as seeking control of state power in Finfinne (Addis Ababa) with the intention of maintaining systems of domination over the Oromo and exploiting Oromia. In contrast, Semocratic (Semenawi-democratic) forces represent genuinely democratic movements that aim to liberate their respective populations from authoritarian rule while recognizing the Oromo people’s right to freedom, self-determination, and sovereignty.
Contemporary Ethiopian politics is shaped by a triangular struggle among elites from the Amhara, Tegaru, and Oromo communities. Persistent strategic miscalculations, mutual distrust, and elite rivalries have prolonged instability. Rather than promoting inclusive political solutions, these dynamics have reinforced confrontation, enabling the current regime to maintain power through divide-and-rule tactics. However, the long-term viability of such a strategy remains uncertain.
This article argues that Ethiopia’s democratic future depends on a critical transformation: shifting from destructive triangular confrontation to constructive triangular cooperation among democratic forces within these three communities. Such cooperation could serve as a stabilizing political foundation—symbolically akin to a three-legged stool (Sostu Gulicha)—capable of sustaining both national and regional stability. In this context, Oromo republican actors must prioritize collaboration with Semocratic forces to counterbalance Seftegna influence and dismantle authoritarian Heftegna rule.
Prospects for Democratic Cooperation
Recent reconciliation efforts involving Semocratic figures from Amhara and Tegaru communities alongside Oromo republican leaders represent a promising step toward inter-communal democratic engagement. However, such initiatives require broader institutional support and societal participation to be sustainable.
Effective cooperation must extend beyond political agreements to include cultural and linguistic inclusivity. Encouraging multilingualism—for instance, promoting the learning of Oromic and Tigrinya among Amhara elites—can strengthen mutual recognition and foster a more inclusive political culture. Linguistic respect is not merely symbolic but constitutes a critical component of democratic transformation.
The central question remains whether democratic actors across these communities can decisively end Ethiopia’s longstanding tradition of authoritarian governance. Historical precedent suggests that regimes dominated by single elite groups are inherently unstable. Thus, Ethiopia’s future stability depends on inclusive democratic participation across all its nations.
Historical Patterns of Elite Domination
Ethiopia’s modern political history reveals a recurring pattern of elite-centered governance. Following the 1974 revolution, the Derg regime privileged Amhara elites while suppressing Tegaru and Oromo populations. The subsequent Woyane-led government reversed this dynamic, empowering Tegaru elites at the expense of others. The current administration appears to replicate this cycle by favoring segments of Oromo elites while marginalizing opposition groups from Amhara and Tegaru communities.
This cyclical redistribution of power among elites has imposed significant social, political, and economic costs. Ethiopia’s crisis cannot be resolved through the replacement of one dominant group with another. Instead, the prevailing triangle of confrontation must be transformed into a cooperative framework grounded in democratic principles.
Oromo Political Consolidation and National Stability
Recent developments, including negotiations between the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the Oromo Prosperity Party (OPP), indicate a potential movement toward Oromo political consolidation. A unified Oromo political front could serve as a stabilizing force within Ethiopia and the broader Horn of Africa.
Efforts such as strengthening political leadership in Finfinne and promoting Oromic as a federal working language represent important steps toward inclusivity. Such measures are generally viewed as constructive by democratic actors.
Sustainable peace in Ethiopia requires an inclusive and consensual state structure. While Tegaru elites have shown increasing openness to cooperation, Amhara elites may follow once more exclusionary narratives are moderated. Given their current political position, Oromo elites carry a particular responsibility to demonstrate inclusivity and engage constructively with Semocratic actors.
The Declining Political Base of the Current Administration
The current administration has experienced a steady erosion of support across major constituencies. Political decisions, including the designation of influential organizations as terrorist groups, have alienated significant segments of both Tegaru and Oromo populations, while also failing to satisfy Amhara nationalist expectations.
Unlike previous leaders who maintained relatively stable support bases within specific constituencies, the current leadership faces broad-based political isolation. As a result, resistance to authoritarian governance is increasingly shared across multiple communities, including both radical and moderate democratic actors.
The National Question and Ideological Divergence
At the core of Ethiopia’s political crisis lies the unresolved national question. While there is broad consensus on democratic principles such as freedom, justice, and human rights, significant اختلاف persists regarding self-determination and the structure of the state.
Within Oromo political discourse, several ideological orientations can be identified:
- Unitary-state advocates who reject the legitimacy of Oromia
- Pro-dominance federalists who accept federalism but favor centralized dominance
- Autonomists who support meaningful regional autonomy
- Independence advocates who call for full sovereignty
- Strategic unionists who envision independence alongside voluntary regional cooperation
Understanding these ideological differences is essential for building transparent and sustainable alliances.
Toward Democratic Transformation
All democratic forces opposing the Heftegna authoritarian rule must adopt a two-phase political strategy:
Ending authoritarian governance
Establishing a democratic political order
The second phase must ensure that all nations and peoples can freely determine their political futures through democratic processes. Whether the outcome is independence, federalism, or a unitary system, legitimacy must derive from popular consent.
Without such a framework, Ethiopia risks perpetuating cycles of domination under different elite configurations.
Conclusion
Ethiopia’s enduring political crisis can only be resolved through genuine democratization. The primary obstacles to this process are the Heftegna and Seftegna authoritarian forces that resist accountability and popular sovereignty.
Democratic Oromo elites, given their current position, bear a particular responsibility to initiate inclusive cooperation and transform the existing triangular conflict into a sustainable democratic alliance. Such an alliance is essential for countering authoritarianism and fostering long-term stability.
The current trajectory of conflict is unsustainable. The path forward requires dialogue, mutual recognition, and a shared commitment to democratic principles. Only through coordinated action among democratic forces can Ethiopia achieve a peaceful and stable future within the Horn of Africa.
Galatôma.
Read more: https://orompia.wordpress.com/2023/06/1 ... operation/
Re: Oromo Elites Need to Differentiate Between two Northern Forces: Seftegnas and Semocrats
There is growing concern among segments of the Oromo public regarding the cooperation of certain Oromo republican actors with northern political forces in opposition to the ruling Heftegna (hybrid-neftegna) establishment led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This concern underscores the necessity for Oromo elites to carefully distinguish between two fundamentally different types of northern forces: Seftegna and Semocratic actors.