Orbital forcing, climate science, and signals of climate change
Posted: 29 Mar 2026, 13:29
Anomalous weather events across the U.S. and in Hawaii in recent days appear to be clear signals of climate change.
Heavy precipitation in the eastern U.S., anomalous heat wave in the western U.S., and heavy flooding in Hawaii because of intense rainfall occurred within a span of few weeks.
Natural variability in weather, measured by precipitation and temperature, gravitates toward a predictable average within a predictable envelope of variability.
Signals of climate change are observable when anomalies in both precipitation and temperature are recorded outside the predictable phases and envelope of variability.
As an example, a new anomalously high temperature for the month of March was recently recorded in the U.S.
The World Meteorological Organization recently reported that the period from 2015 to 2025 was the hottest on record.
While orbital forcing may be used as a proxy to study signals of natural variability, anomalous weather events are used as signals of climate change.
The recent anomalous weather events across the U.S. and in Hawaii are likely to provide data for researchers who are interested and have the resources to clearly demonstrate the characteristics of climate change.
I started the academic exercise of attributing climate change to natural variability and manmade causes several years ago in the course of studying the impact of climate change on water resources.
Two peer reviewed journal papers, one published in the U.S. and the other published in the U.K., have come out of this academic exercise.
Interested researchers who have the resources to continue this academic exercise may find these peer reviewed journal papers, which are linked below, helpful.
Step toward a Deterministic Solution of the Paradoxical Hydrological Stationarity Problem
Validation of predicted meteorological drought in California using analogous orbital geometries
Heavy precipitation in the eastern U.S., anomalous heat wave in the western U.S., and heavy flooding in Hawaii because of intense rainfall occurred within a span of few weeks.
Natural variability in weather, measured by precipitation and temperature, gravitates toward a predictable average within a predictable envelope of variability.
Signals of climate change are observable when anomalies in both precipitation and temperature are recorded outside the predictable phases and envelope of variability.
As an example, a new anomalously high temperature for the month of March was recently recorded in the U.S.
The World Meteorological Organization recently reported that the period from 2015 to 2025 was the hottest on record.
While orbital forcing may be used as a proxy to study signals of natural variability, anomalous weather events are used as signals of climate change.
The recent anomalous weather events across the U.S. and in Hawaii are likely to provide data for researchers who are interested and have the resources to clearly demonstrate the characteristics of climate change.
I started the academic exercise of attributing climate change to natural variability and manmade causes several years ago in the course of studying the impact of climate change on water resources.
Two peer reviewed journal papers, one published in the U.S. and the other published in the U.K., have come out of this academic exercise.
Interested researchers who have the resources to continue this academic exercise may find these peer reviewed journal papers, which are linked below, helpful.
Step toward a Deterministic Solution of the Paradoxical Hydrological Stationarity Problem
Validation of predicted meteorological drought in California using analogous orbital geometries