A coup? | The pillar of Abiy's regime is in the hands of the army. Would it seize power to avoid a humiliating defeat?
Posted: 22 Mar 2026, 09:50
The pillar of Abiy's regime is in the hands of the army. Would it seize power to avoid a humiliating defeat?
This may sound unreasonable, but I can’t get 1974 out of my head. When a rank-and-file soldiers’ revolt breaks out in the remote and small garrison of Neguele, and over a basic material issue of drinking water, no one imagined for a single moment ...
... that this process would lead to the collapse of the regime just three months later. A few signs to consider: If the blockade of Tigray continues, conversely Addis no longer has any control over the region. 2/6
It seems that the local forces set up to compensate for the redeployment of the ENDF in the North are collapsing in the Amhara region, with mass desertions. OLA is advancing toward the center of Oromia. According to Ethioforum, Mustafa Mohamed, criticized by Abiy, ... 3/6
... is said to have declared: “Before Abiy removes me from office, Ethiopia will collapse.” ONLF risks to take arm again. Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Somali: what remains outside the urban centers? Where will elections be able to take place, even if only formally? 4/6
De facto, the pillar of the regime—and therefore its future—is in the hands of the army. The whole question is whether, in the event of a threat of a military rout, and given the growing irrationality of Abiy, the army will remain loyal to him or, on the contrary, ... 5/6
... the army or at least part of it will seize power to avoid a humiliating defeat. It was indeed a simple local military mutiny that led to Haile Selassie’s overthrow. 6/6
https://x.com/rene_renelefort/status/20 ... 1019218210
This may sound unreasonable, but I can’t get 1974 out of my head. When a rank-and-file soldiers’ revolt breaks out in the remote and small garrison of Neguele, and over a basic material issue of drinking water, no one imagined for a single moment ...
... that this process would lead to the collapse of the regime just three months later. A few signs to consider: If the blockade of Tigray continues, conversely Addis no longer has any control over the region. 2/6
It seems that the local forces set up to compensate for the redeployment of the ENDF in the North are collapsing in the Amhara region, with mass desertions. OLA is advancing toward the center of Oromia. According to Ethioforum, Mustafa Mohamed, criticized by Abiy, ... 3/6
... is said to have declared: “Before Abiy removes me from office, Ethiopia will collapse.” ONLF risks to take arm again. Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Somali: what remains outside the urban centers? Where will elections be able to take place, even if only formally? 4/6
De facto, the pillar of the regime—and therefore its future—is in the hands of the army. The whole question is whether, in the event of a threat of a military rout, and given the growing irrationality of Abiy, the army will remain loyal to him or, on the contrary, ... 5/6
... the army or at least part of it will seize power to avoid a humiliating defeat. It was indeed a simple local military mutiny that led to Haile Selassie’s overthrow. 6/6
https://x.com/rene_renelefort/status/20 ... 1019218210