THE WEST ASIA CHAOS & ETHIOPIA'S OPPORTUNITY
Posted: 02 Mar 2026, 13:31
For the past year or so, I have been talking about the VUCA nature of the geo-military and geo-politics of Horn of Africa and West Asia.
In a state of VUCA, realities, situations, conditions are (1) volatile, (2) uncertain, (3) complex and (4) ambiguous. The current states of the Middle East and the Horn of Africa are exactly just that.
The two day old Iran war could end quickly, could go on for a long time, could be limited geographically or could engulf the land between the Mediterranean, Black Sea, from Pakistan, Red Sea, Horn of Africa and Indian Ocean.
In any event and state of affairs, this war will fundamentally change the existing configuration and alignment of forces in the whole region because when this war is fought and done, some countries will come out stronger and others weaker. Some enemies will become friends and some friends will become enemies.
In short, this Iranian war comes with threat and opportunities. It produces weaknesses and strengths.
Which country will come out stronger and opportunist and which country will come out weaker and threatened largely depends on the intelligence, wisdom, preparedness, vision, strategic and tactical leadership of the leadership of each country.
The point I am hinting at is this - during the Arab Spring, a priceless opportunity presented itself for Ethiopia to act on the construction of GERD.
This West Asian Spring of 2026 may present a golden opportunity for us to act on Red Sea Access.
In a state of VUCA, realities, situations, conditions are (1) volatile, (2) uncertain, (3) complex and (4) ambiguous. The current states of the Middle East and the Horn of Africa are exactly just that.
The two day old Iran war could end quickly, could go on for a long time, could be limited geographically or could engulf the land between the Mediterranean, Black Sea, from Pakistan, Red Sea, Horn of Africa and Indian Ocean.
In any event and state of affairs, this war will fundamentally change the existing configuration and alignment of forces in the whole region because when this war is fought and done, some countries will come out stronger and others weaker. Some enemies will become friends and some friends will become enemies.
In short, this Iranian war comes with threat and opportunities. It produces weaknesses and strengths.
Which country will come out stronger and opportunist and which country will come out weaker and threatened largely depends on the intelligence, wisdom, preparedness, vision, strategic and tactical leadership of the leadership of each country.
The point I am hinting at is this - during the Arab Spring, a priceless opportunity presented itself for Ethiopia to act on the construction of GERD.
This West Asian Spring of 2026 may present a golden opportunity for us to act on Red Sea Access.