I firmly believe that Ethiopia and Israel are natural allies.
Egypt is set to be a permanently hostile nation towards Ethiopia. And, Ethiopia, sooner or later will have to find ways to permanently counter Egypt's hostility.
Ethiopia should consider Israel's proposal under one condition - any formal strategic regional bloc must be able to actualize Ethiopia's strategic objective of becoming a Horn/East African dominant power. In other words, Egypt must vacate the Horn of Africa which is the natural turf of Ethiopia.
India is also a natural ally of Ethiopia. The Israeli proposal that includes India is also a good Idea.
UAE has vital interest in the Horn of Africa but does not have hegemonic ambition over Ethiopia just like Israel. Therefore, I consider Ethiopia- UAE relation a natural alliance.
Turkey's interest in the Horn of Africa is hegemonic; therefore, Ethiopia must handle her proximity with Turkey with great care and ambiguity.
Finally, any Israeli -Ethiopia deep strategic alliance must not and should not be a tool for America or other western power hegemony over Ethiopia.
This is the age of multiversity (not only multipolarity) and VUCA. That is to say, the world centers of power are many and diverse. They are both different and opposites.
What we call reality is simply a principle - the organizing principle these multiverse, diverse and multipolar words.
And, reality is VUCA. That is say reality is volatile, uncertain, complex and/or ambiguous.
Therefore, leadership, national leadership means the ability to navigate the world, make decision and choices under the conditions of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. In other words, in any given alliance and set of strategies, behaviors of nations are volatile, outcomes of decisions are uncertain, parameters of probabilities are complex and intentions and actions nations are ambiguous.
These are only some of the things that Abiy Ahmed's foreign policy teams must master to make the right moves.
