Abiy is determined to go to War with Eritrea, why?
By Ayele Meshesha
There are many news outlets confirming that Abiy Ahmed is preparing to start a new war in the north with Eritrea and the Tigray Region, possibly at any time, allegedly under the direction and orders of the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are said to be against it. The foreign minister of Saudi Arabia was in Addis Ababa, and it is reported that Abiy had a conflict with the Saudi delegation. Following the Saudis,
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself visited Addis Ababa. Their mission is reportedly to stop him from going to war with Eritrea. It has also been reported that Erdoğan asked Abiy not to recognize Somaliland, emphasizing that he opposes Abiy’s destabilizing involvement in Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, and beyond.
At the same time, those involved believe that a war could be launched at any moment so as not to disappoint his perceived patron,
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ), who is said to have invested billions in Abiy Ahmed over the past eight years. It is claimed that MBZ is seeking guarantees of control over the Red Sea, positioning himself as a superpower in the Horn of Africa. Abiy is described by critics as one of the UAE’s “
cat’s paws” in the Horn of Africa, a term referring to a person used by another to carry out an unpleasant or dangerous task.
First, let us examine what the United Arab Emirates is.
UAE as a Proxy State?
Why did a small nation with a population of about 11 million, of which only around 1.1 million are Emirati citizens, with the vast majority being expatriates from South Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa, gain so much power and international attention? The country’s size is comparable to Portugal in the EU or the U.S. state of South Carolina, and much of its territory is desert, with the population concentrated in cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah. How, then, has such a small nation acquired significant influence in Yemen, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia?
The first intuition is, that this influence must stem from the economy. Indeed, the UAE has a high-income, diversified economy, historically rooted in oil and gas. However, today the major economic drivers are trade, tourism, aviation, finance, logistics, real estate, and technology. Looking at the economic resources of the UAE, one can understand that they have diversified their economic influence and they wanted to dominate more. The second intuition is, that there are powerful forces and alliances behind the interests of the UAE. That should be investigated further. The problem is if there are powers using the UAE, it takes decades for such secrets and intelligence to come out to the surface. We see the patterns, but it is hard to verify it with data. Some of the hints are that Israel is working with the UAE, and behind MBZ´s ambition, there might be the greater global players. However, the main ambition behind Abiy Ahmed’s determination to go to war with Eritrea could be a pure ambition of UAE’s leader to do so. It is human nature to be ambitious and feel powerful, when your economic muscle becomes strong in this world. Everyone does that when you pocket is strong enough, you want to buy the world.
If you know nothing about the UAE leader, just search a little bit. You will find out that he is a very ambitious leader to put his influence at the local, regional and global level. Though he comes from a small state with limited population and geography. Rather than accepting those limits, he has worked systematically to overcome them. His project has never been only about wealth or oil or building a beautiful and great Dubai; it is about transforming the UAE into a permanent power, one that cannot be ignored in regional or global decision-making.
For MBZ, geography is destiny. The Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the Horn of Africa are not distant regions but extensions of Emirati security. Control over ports, shipping lanes, and political outcomes along these routes ensures that the UAE sits at the crossroads of global trade. This explains the country’s deep involvement in Yemen, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and Libya. Influence in these places is cheaper and more effective than deploying large armies, and it delivers strategic leverage far beyond the UAE’s size. This man has several Cat´s paw, everywhere. Few examples are the following.
RSF as Cat´s paw in Sudan
The UAE has deep strategic interests in Sudan, including control over the Red Sea corridor, influence over gold supply chains, leverage in the Horn of Africa, and dominating vast region further. Direct military involvement would be costly, visible, and politically risky, making support for a powerful local actor a cheaper and more deniable alternative. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by
Hemedti, fit this role well: a heavily militarized, resource-funded force with its own command structure, economic interests, and readiness to act decisively. Through financial support, logistics, political backing, and regional facilitation, the RSF has gained strength and legitimacy, while advancing outcomes aligned with Emirati interests. In this sense, the RSF functions as the UAE’s cat’s paw, fighting, governing territory, and absorbing international blame as Abu Dhabi shapes outcomes from a distance, avoiding direct accountability. This does not mean the RSF lacks agency; it is not a puppet but an actor whose ambitions and power have been significantly amplified by Emirati support, making it a highly effective instrument in a broader geopolitical strategy. Consequently, Sudan has been in disarray and human catastrophe until Saudi Arabia intervened via the USA, and UAE seem to back down as it did in Yemen and Somalia recently.
Abiy the cat´s Paw from Ethiopia
Here we did not say Ethiopia, we squarely say Abiy is a UAE cat´s paw since he went out his way and bowed down to MBZ to be his resource and boss. The ambitious leader took that opportunistic leader and sponsored his government. Just in Abiy´s first term, MBZ gave him 2 billion dollars, seven years ago. Given the country’s situation at that time, everyone was happy that Abiy Ahmed got help from a rich country or man. No one saw what was coming with such generosity. When later TPLF came to take his power, Abiy got modern drones and operators to burn alive many young fighters even when they were returning home in masses. That is how partly the more than half million youth were destroyed in only two years of war.
Right now, Abiy is under pressure from his patron to deliver Red Sea influence to the UAE. What does this mean? Let us provide some context. The UAE gained access to Assab in 2015 as part of its campaign in Yemen, expanded the port and base infrastructure, and then withdrew and dismantled most of its presence between 2019 and 2021 as it scaled back its operational commitments. Some argue that this withdrawal was an economic decision. In reality, it reflected a shift in strategy. The UAE sought a cheaper and less controversial approach from an international perspective: using another cat’s paw. That alternative is a country of 130 million people, its military, and its resources—channeled through a power-hungry leader. Abiy’s mission to go to war with Eritrea, therefore, is not merely about taking Assab port. It is about controlling Eritrea’s entire coastline, approximately 2,234 km, including 1,151 km of mainland Red Sea coast and 1,083 km surrounding its islands. Such control would give the UAE enormous leverage over the Red Sea. The billions invested in a young and incompetent leader were not made in vain. Abiy appears ready to repay that investment with his entire political existence. This has become his sole purpose: to remain king in Ethiopia. He believes he can achieve this only by bowing to MBZ.
Broader picture from the global stage
In the media and on social media, there are reports that a war between the United States and Iran could break out at any time. Israel is described as being aligned with the United States in this matter. There are also reports that Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are regrouping on one side, as they are said to be concerned about what might follow a potential downfall of Iran. According to these accounts, they aim to contain the growing dominance and strategic repositioning of the United Arab Emirates and Israel in the Red Sea region, the Horn of Africa, and possibly beyond. Israel’s reported recognition of Somaliland is viewed within this broader context, not only as a move related to influence over forces in Yemen, but as part of a wider strategic alignment. This broader diplomatic chess game is also said to involve major powers such as China and Russia. Determining who is aligning with whom is a key aspect that observers are watching carefully. Many analysts suggest that the world may be in the process of forming a new system of alliances and a shifting global order.
Abiy is in a deep Mess
As mentioned above, it may not have been solely about warning Abiy regarding Somalia’s internal issues. Erdoğan’s visit could also be seen as diplomatic pressure influenced by Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia. Abiy may attempt to justify that Ethiopia, with a population of 130 million, deserves access to a seaport. However, such a justification would not be sufficient grounds to engage in another head-to-head war that could cost tens of thousands of lives, especially given the devastating conflicts the country has experienced over the past five years, which have killed more than 1.5 million people. In addition to the pressure from powerful and wealthy nations and individuals who are pushing him toward conflict, Abiy may want to eliminate the northern forces in the country, particularly the TPLF forces. He may feel that he has some unfinished business, as he is always afraid that they might come back and remove him from office. From his perspective, it may seem like a win-win situation. Whatever is the case, this guy is in deep shît. Looking at his face in the media these days, he looks in great distress and his health might even be in a risky situation, given all the problems around him.
The war with Fano has been ongoing for almost three years. Abiy even intensified it at the start of February 2026 by launching a special operation in North Shewa, targeting forces there because of their proximity to Addis Ababa. He fears that if he officially launches a war in the north, the united Fano forces could march to 4 Kilo and remove him from office in the blink of an eye. It has been reported that Abiy has ordered the military to withdraw from many areas in Gondar (Belesa, Simada, Nifasmewucha, etc.), exposing militias and police units that were on his payroll. As a result, these forces have easily fallen into the hands of Fano, leading to the collapse of local administrations, which by default have come under Fano’s control. Abiy should now be cursing the day he decided to send his army into the Amhara region. Since then, he has been unable to govern the country. He is paralyzed.
Stopping him is the way out of the many folds problem for the whole country
Even in this limbo situation, he is trying to convince the Oromo people to defend his government. At least that is what he said in Nekemte, Wollega, over the past two days. Abiy does not care about the Oromo or Oromia. He does not care about the Amhara, Tigray, Somali, or any other group. He only cares about his power. Tigray has suffered immensely. Amhara is suffering right now. Wollega and many parts of Oromia have been bleeding since he came to power. No one is safe under his government. He seeks to divide and rule the country. He has become the most dangerous and irresponsible leader Ethiopia and Ethiopians can no longer endure. He has humiliated Ethiopian soldiers and undermined the military institution itself. How long will Ethiopian generals continue to fall with him? How long will Oromo elites continue to stand by him? Is no one among his associates willing to stop him?
Let everyone know this: his days are numbered. The system is collapsing, and everything is beginning to crumble. But the people must be ready to save Ethiopia and Ethiopians. Fano has united and built a disciplined and responsible force capable of protecting the country. For many, this represents hope for Ethiopia. At the same time, other parts of the country must prepare for a transition. Let the cat’s paw in Ethiopia and his master lose their grip on the nation.
